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Author: William Easterly
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
After excluding countries with high-inflation crises - periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent - the data reveal no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. But growth does tend to fall sharply during discrete crises of high inflation and to recover surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. Perhaps inflation crises are purely cyclical, or perhaps in the long run they have a favorable purgative effect. Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and that such correlation is not robust to the exclusion of observations of extreme inflation. Including time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. Bruno and Easterly propose a nonparametric definition of high-inflation crises as periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent. Excluding countries with high-inflation crises, they find no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. They do find that growth falls sharply during discrete crises of high inflation, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during a crisis and the recovery of growth after the crisis tend to average out to nearly zero (even slightly above zero); hence no robust cross-section correlation. Their findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output (in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena) or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Their findings do not support the view that reducing high inflation carries heavy output costs in the short to medium run. This paper - a joint product of the Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, and the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine the determinants of economic growth.
Author: William Easterly
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
After excluding countries with high-inflation crises - periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent - the data reveal no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. But growth does tend to fall sharply during discrete crises of high inflation and to recover surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. Perhaps inflation crises are purely cyclical, or perhaps in the long run they have a favorable purgative effect. Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and that such correlation is not robust to the exclusion of observations of extreme inflation. Including time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. Bruno and Easterly propose a nonparametric definition of high-inflation crises as periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent. Excluding countries with high-inflation crises, they find no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. They do find that growth falls sharply during discrete crises of high inflation, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during a crisis and the recovery of growth after the crisis tend to average out to nearly zero (even slightly above zero); hence no robust cross-section correlation. Their findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output (in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena) or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Their findings do not support the view that reducing high inflation carries heavy output costs in the short to medium run. This paper - a joint product of the Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, and the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine the determinants of economic growth.
Author: Michael Bruno
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.
Author: Michael Bruno
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Anti-inflationary policies
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Book Description
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226066959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545
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Book Description
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author: Vikesh Gokal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic Development
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Author: Hans-Jürgen Engelbrecht
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Hans-Jürgen Engelbrecht
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319790757
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 298
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Book Description
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author: Mrs.Kerstin Gerling
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475592159
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.
