Author: Kerstin Bernoth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37

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Author: Kerstin Bernoth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Debts, Public
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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Author: Kerstin Bernoth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Ms.Silvia Sgherri
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451873697
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to comove over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors' frailty and future debt dynamics. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads.

Author: Giancarlo Corsetti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475516800
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49

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Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.

Author: Marida Bertocchi
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814440167
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288

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This presents the most recent developments in the Euro bond market. It discusses the problems of the Euro countries, the proposed solutions advocated by European as well as international institutions and investors. Particular emphasis is given to systemic risk and contagion as well as to specific innovative instruments such as structured financial products which protect various classes of investors.

Author: Engelbert J. Dockner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Credit risk has become an important factor driving government bond returns. We therefore introduce an asset pricing model which exploits information contained in both forward interest rates and forward CDS spreads. Our empirical analysis covers euro-zone countries with German government bonds as credit risk-free assets. We construct a market factor from the first three principal components of the German forward curve as well as a common and a country-specific credit factor from the principal components of the forward CDS curves. We find that predictability of risk premiums of sovereign euro-zone bonds improves substantially if the market factor is augmented by a common and an orthogonal country-specific credit factor. While the common credit factor is significant for most countries in the sample, the country-specific factor is significant mainly for peripheral euro-zone countries. Finally, we find that during the current crisis period, market and credit risk premiums of government bonds are negative over long subintervals, a finding that we attribute to the presence of financial repression in euro-zone countries.

Author: Kerstin Bernoth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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We investigate the effects of official fiscal data and creative accounting signals on interest rate spreads between bond yields in the European Union. Our model predicts that risk premia contained in government bond spreads should increase in both the official fiscal position and the expected quot;creativequot; part of fiscal policy. The relative importance of these two signals depends on the transparency of the country. Greater transparency reduces risk premia. The empirical results confirm the hypotheses. Creative accounting increases the spread. The increase of the risk premium is stronger if financial markets are unsure about the true extent of creative accounting. Fiscal transparency reduces risk premia.

Author: Ms.Eva Jenkner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484398874
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.

Author: Jacob Wellendorph Ejsing
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37

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