Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets

Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets PDF Author: Anthony J. Richards
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Book Description
This paper examines the evidence for the common assertion that the volatility of emerging stock markets has increased as a result of the liberalization of markets. A range of measures suggests that there has been no generalized increase in volatility in recent years; indeed, it appears that volatility may have tended to fall rather than rise on average. The paper also tests for the predictability of long-horizon returns in emerging markets. While there is evidence for positive autocorrelation in returns at horizons of one or two quarters, the autocorrelations appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more. However, the magnitude of the apparent return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries. In general, the liberalization and broadening of emerging markets should lead to a reduction in return volatility as risk is spread among a larger number of investors.

Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets

Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets PDF Author: Anthony J. Richards
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52

Get Book

Book Description
This paper examines the evidence for the common assertion that the volatility of emerging stock markets has increased as a result of the liberalization of markets. A range of measures suggests that there has been no generalized increase in volatility in recent years; indeed, it appears that volatility may have tended to fall rather than rise on average. The paper also tests for the predictability of long-horizon returns in emerging markets. While there is evidence for positive autocorrelation in returns at horizons of one or two quarters, the autocorrelations appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more. However, the magnitude of the apparent return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries. In general, the liberalization and broadening of emerging markets should lead to a reduction in return volatility as risk is spread among a larger number of investors.

Stock Market Volatility

Stock Market Volatility PDF Author: Greg N. Gregoriou
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420099558
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 654

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Book Description
Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel

Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices

Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices PDF Author: Mr.Anthony J. Richards
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451859236
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23

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Book Description
This paper examines possible explanations for “winner–loser reversals” in the national stock market indices of 16 countries. There is no evidence that loser countries are riskier than winner countries either in terms of standard deviations, covariance with the world market or other risk factors, or performance in adverse economic states of the world. While there is evidence that small markets are subject to larger reversals than large markets, perhaps because of some form of market imperfection, the reversals are not just a small-market phenomenon. The apparent anomaly of winner-loser reversals in national market indices therefore remains unresolved.

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets PDF Author: Greg N. Gregoriou
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439804508
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 870

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Book Description
Although emerging market economies consist of 50% of the global population, they are relatively unknown. Filling this knowledge gap, Emerging Markets: Performance, Analysis and Innovation compiles the latest research by noteworthy academics and money managers from around the world. With a focus on both traditional emerging markets and new areas, su

IMF Staff papers, Volume 43 No. 3

IMF Staff papers, Volume 43 No. 3 PDF Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451973446
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188

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Book Description
This paper examines the volatility and predictability of emerging stock markets. A range of measures suggests that, despite perceptions to the contrary, the volatility of emerging markets may have fallen rather than risen on average. Also, although the autocorrelations in emerging market returns appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more, the magnitude of these return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries.

Finance and Development

Finance and Development PDF Author: Christopher J. Green
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1845424603
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 465

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Book Description
In this new book a group of 18 distinguished authors presents comprehensive surveys of current issues in the field of finance and development. . . This book nicely bridges the gap between general research on the role of finance for economic growth and the role finance plays for developing economies and poverty reduction. . . Moreover, the authors identify a great number of promising ideas for future research. . . Ryszard Kokoszczynski, SUERF Newsletter The European Money & Finance Forum In the last two decades, the role of finance in the development process has become a major topic of research and debate. Although it is widely agreed that there is an important link between the two, there is much less consensus on the exact nature of the relationship. Is financial development a prerequisite for general economic development, or is it a more passive by-product of the development process? In this valuable new book, a distinguished group of authors takes stock of the existing state of knowledge in the field of finance and the development process. Each chapter offers a comprehensive survey and synthesis of current issues. These include such critical subjects as savings, financial markets and the macroeconomy, stock market development, financial regulation, foreign investment and aid, financing livelihoods, microfinance, rural financial markets, small and medium enterprises, corporate finance and banking. This book will be accessible to postgraduate and advanced undergraduate students of finance and development. It will also be an essential reference source for all professionals and academics working in this area who want to learn how finance can contribute to the development process and poverty reduction.

Empirical Techniques in Finance

Empirical Techniques in Finance PDF Author: Ramaprasad Bhar
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540276424
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 243

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Book Description
Includes traditional elements of financial econometrics but is not yet another volume in econometrics. Discusses statistical and probability techniques commonly used in quantitative finance. The reader will be able to explore more complex structures without getting inundated with the underlying mathematics.

Frontier Emerging Equity Markets Securities Price Behavior and Valuation

Frontier Emerging Equity Markets Securities Price Behavior and Valuation PDF Author: Oliver S. Kratz
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 058530811X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 210

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Book Description
Frontier Emerging Equity Markets Securities Price Behavior and Valuation uses the Russian example to illustrate the intricate mechanics of frontier emerging equity market analysis. Frontier markets are those equity markets that do not benefit from the same degree of securities transparency and information dissemination as future emerging markets. In many cases, frontier equity markets are those which have been created almost literally overnight, without the infrastructure and institutional readiness of the nations in which they are located. During the 1990s, frontier emerging markets have formed a new investment asset class which requires a very different set of valuation metrics from mature emerging markets. In developing a multi-stage approach to the understanding and valuing of such markets, this book uses the case of the Russian frontier equity market to illustrate topics such as the relationship between equity market infrastructure and valuation during the `genesis' period of an emerging financial market; evolving market efficiency; and the crucial role of depository receipt programs in the development of these markets. Further, this book develops the first comprehensive framework for valuing a frontier equity market. The role of equity risk premium, as it affects early dynamic equity valuation, is also covered in order to illuminate important drivers of securities price performance. The book closes by discussing the philology of the frontier market valuation debate, in which every market participant is an important purveyor of information and a contributor to the final valuation dimension of equities. The main asset used to present the empirical concepts is a complete research database drawn from actual frontier market investing, which previously had been unavailable to academic researchers. As an active institutional asset management professional at a major Wall Street investment firm, the author marries academic theories, such as market efficiency and market segmentation, to the real world of high stakes and high risk frontier market investing. This book illustrates the applicability and, in some cases, the uselessness of financial theory when applied to this new and rising asset class. It opens the discussion of equity valuation theory for an environment where many conventional rules of asset price determination need to be rewritten. As the first research-level monograph exclusively dedicated to frontier emerging equity market analysis, it offers a unique dual perspective on how academic financial research finds it a complementary and sometimes antagonistic counterpart of real-life investment decision-making. This book can help both professional investors and students of finance to understand frontier equity market valuation and development.

African Development Finance and Business Finance Policy

African Development Finance and Business Finance Policy PDF Author: Atsede Woldie
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134731310
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 189

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Book Description
Financial plans that stimulate growth and eliminate poverty in developing African countries! African Developmental Finance and Business Finance Policy presents theoretical/conceptual and empirical articles that provide invaluable insights into successful business techniques and strategies for the African business arena—the last great frontier of international business expansion. Researchers and practitioners in the field of developmental finance discuss the design and implementation of financial policies for pro-poor growth and poverty alienation in developing countries, including Kenya, Zambia, Nigeria, Mauritius, and Zimbabwe. The book focuses on banking, business finance, and investment, detailing strategies for coping with a small financial system, bank licensing policies, correction action rules, quality of banking services, and the revitalization of the African stock exchange. African Developmental Finance and Business Finance Policy features papers presented on key policy issues addressed at the April 2001 international conference of the Institute for Developmental Policy and Management at the University of Manchester in England. Topics addressed include: financial regulation, interest rates bank ownership regulatory forbearance emerging stock markets determinants of capital structure financial reform and much more! Targeted to policymakers in government and international agencies, academics, consultants, and executives, African Developmental Finance and Business Finance Policy is an essential resource for advancing and communicating research on developmental policy in developing countries.

Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1999

Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1999 PDF Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781557759801
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 144

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Book Description
Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.