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Author: Gordon T. Gemmill
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
Author: Gordon T. Gemmill
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
Author: Thomas W. Sampson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between today's implied volatility on AMD stock options with tomorrow's return on the underlying. An economic analyis of the options markets' micro-structure is discussed to establish the intuition and the basis behind the relationship. Four seperate models are developed to examine its statistical significance and the ability of options' prices to accurately forecast returns on the underlying security. The hypothesis of the paper is that daily changes in implied volatility can be used to earn higher than expected returns on the underlying stock. I find that implied volatility can be used to increase forecasting accuracy and may proved a means by which the Efficient Markets Hypothesis can be refuted.
Author: David Leonard Neff
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Author: Jaesun Noh
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock exchanges
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
To forecast future option prices, autoregressive models of implied volatility derived from observed option prices are commonly employed [see Day and Lewis (1990), and Harvey and Whaley (1992)]. In contrast, the ARCH model proposed by Engle (1982) models the dynamic behavior in volatility, forecasting future volatility using only the return series of an asset. We assess the performance of these two volatility prediction models from S&P 500 index options market data over the period from September 1986 to December 1991 by employing two agents who trade straddles, each using one of the two different methods of forecast. Straddle trading is employed since a straddle does not need to be hedged. Each agent prices options according to her chosen method of forecast, buying (selling) straddles when her forecast price for tomorrow is higher (lower) than today's market closing price, and at the end of each day the rates of return are computed. We find that the agent using the GARCH forecast method earns greater profit than the agent who uses the implied volatility regression (IVR) forecast model. In particular, the agent using the GARCH forecast method earns a profit in excess of a cost of $0.25 per straddle with the near-the-money straddle trading.
Author: M. Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Ruediger Kiesel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
We present a new option-pricing model, which explicitly captures the difference in the persistence of volatility under historical and risk-neutral probabilities. The model also allows to capture the empirical properties of pricing kernels, such as time-variation and the typical S-shape. We apply our model for two purposes. First, we analyze the risk preferences of market participants invested in S&P 500 index options during 2001-2009. We find that risk-aversion strongly increases during stressed market conditions and relaxes during normal market conditions. Second, we extract forward-looking information from S&P 500 index options and perform out-of-sample Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts during the period of the subprime mortgage crises. We compare the VaR forecasting performance of our model with four alternative VaR models and find that 2-Factor Stochastic Volatility models have the best forecasting performance.
Author: Zhina Zhang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 108
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Book Description
Author: Wing-Keung Wong
Publisher: Mdpi AG
ISBN: 9783036530802
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accounting
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
Author: Ser-Huang Poon
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470856157
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
