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Author: Myron Tribus
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483146235
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 500
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Book Description
Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs is a reference for understanding the aspects of rational decision theory in terms of the basic formalism of information theory. The text provides ways to achieve correct engineering design decisions. The book starts with an understanding for the need to apply rationality, as opposed to uncertainty, in design decision making. Inductive logic in computers is explained where the design of the machine and the accompanying software are considered. The text then explains the functional equations and the problems of arriving at a rational description through some mathematical preliminaries. Bayes' equation and rational inference as tools for adjusting probabilities when something new is encountered in earlier probability distributions are explained. The book presents as well a case study concerning the error made in following specifications of spark plugs. The author also explains the Bernoulli trials, where a probability that a better hypothesis than that already adopted may exist. The rational measure of uncertainty and the principle of maximum entropy with sample calculations are included in the text. After considering the probabilities, the decision theory is taken up where engineering design follows. Examples regarding transmitter and voltmeter designs are presented. The book ends by explaining probabilities of success and failure as applied to reliability engineering, that it is a state of knowledge rather than the state of a thing. The text can serve as a textbook for students in technology engineering and design, and as a useful reference for mathematicians, statisticians, and fabrication engineers.
Author: Myron Tribus
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483146235
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 500
Get Book Here
Book Description
Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs is a reference for understanding the aspects of rational decision theory in terms of the basic formalism of information theory. The text provides ways to achieve correct engineering design decisions. The book starts with an understanding for the need to apply rationality, as opposed to uncertainty, in design decision making. Inductive logic in computers is explained where the design of the machine and the accompanying software are considered. The text then explains the functional equations and the problems of arriving at a rational description through some mathematical preliminaries. Bayes' equation and rational inference as tools for adjusting probabilities when something new is encountered in earlier probability distributions are explained. The book presents as well a case study concerning the error made in following specifications of spark plugs. The author also explains the Bernoulli trials, where a probability that a better hypothesis than that already adopted may exist. The rational measure of uncertainty and the principle of maximum entropy with sample calculations are included in the text. After considering the probabilities, the decision theory is taken up where engineering design follows. Examples regarding transmitter and voltmeter designs are presented. The book ends by explaining probabilities of success and failure as applied to reliability engineering, that it is a state of knowledge rather than the state of a thing. The text can serve as a textbook for students in technology engineering and design, and as a useful reference for mathematicians, statisticians, and fabrication engineers.
Author: Frédéric Adam
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000543102
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Managers in organisations must make rational decisions. Rational decision making is the opposite of intuitive decision making. It is a strict procedure utilising objective knowledge and logic. It involves identifying the problem to solve, gathering facts, identifying options and outcomes, analysing them, considering all the relationships and selecting the decision. Rational decision making requires support: methods and software tools. The identification of the problem to solve needs methods that would measure and evaluate the current situation. Identification and evaluation of options and analysis of the available possibilities involves analysis and optimisation methods. Incorporating intuition into rational decision making needs adequate methods that would translate ideas or observed behaviours into hard data. Communication, observation and opinions recording is hardly possible today without adequate software. Information and data that form the input, intermediate variables and the output must be stored, managed and made accessible in a user-friendly manner. Rational Decisions in Organisations: Theoretical and Practical Aspects presents selected recent developments in the support of the widely understood rational decision making in organisations, illustrated through case studies. The book shows not only the variety of perspectives involved in decision making, but also the variety of domains where rational decision support systems are needed. The case studies present decision making by medical doctors, students and managers of various universities, IT project teams, construction companies, banks and small and large manufacturing companies. Covering the richness of relationships in which the decisions should and must be taken, the book illustrates how modern organisations operate in chains and networks; they have multiple responsibilities, including social, legal, business and ethical duties. Nowadays, managers in organisations can make transparent decisions and consider a multitude of stakeholders and their diverse features, incorporating diverse criteria, using multiple types and drivers of information and decision-making patterns, and referring to numerous lessons learned. As the book makes clear, the marriage of theoretical ideas with the possibilities offered by technology can make the decisions in organisations more rational and, at the same time, more human.
Author: Myron Tribus
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789197363303
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 478
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Book Description
Author: Edwin T. Jaynes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792302131
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 468
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Book Description
The first six chapters of this volume present the author's 'predictive' or information theoretic' approach to statistical mechanics, in which the basic probability distributions over microstates are obtained as distributions of maximum entropy (Le. , as distributions that are most non-committal with regard to missing information among all those satisfying the macroscopically given constraints). There is then no need to make additional assumptions of ergodicity or metric transitivity; the theory proceeds entirely by inference from macroscopic measurements and the underlying dynamical assumptions. Moreover, the method of maximizing the entropy is completely general and applies, in particular, to irreversible processes as well as to reversible ones. The next three chapters provide a broader framework - at once Bayesian and objective - for maximum entropy inference. The basic principles of inference, including the usual axioms of probability, are seen to rest on nothing more than requirements of consistency, above all, the requirement that in two problems where we have the same information we must assign the same probabilities. Thus, statistical mechanics is viewed as a branch of a general theory of inference, and the latter as an extension of the ordinary logic of consistency. Those who are familiar with the literature of statistics and statistical mechanics will recognize in both of these steps a genuine 'scientific revolution' - a complete reversal of earlier conceptions - and one of no small significance.
Author: Robert E. Melchers
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119265991
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 530
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Book Description
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Third Edition is a textbook which addresses the important issue of predicting the safety of structures at the design stage and also the safety of existing, perhaps deteriorating structures. Attention is focused on the development and definition of limit states such as serviceability and ultimate strength, the definition of failure and the various models which might be used to describe strength and loading. This book emphasises concepts and applications, built up from basic principles and avoids undue mathematical rigour. It presents an accessible and unified account of the theory and techniques for the analysis of the reliability of engineering structures using probability theory. This new edition has been updated to cover new developments and applications and a new chapter is included which covers structural optimization in the context of reliability analysis. New examples and end of chapter problems are also now included.
Author: Robert Trappl
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814550949
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1964
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Book Description
The papers in this volume reflect the most recent research findings in cybernetics and systems research. They were selected from 298 draft final papers which were submitted to the conference by authors from more than 30 different countries from five continents.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 938
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Book Description
Author: D. V. Lindley
Publisher: SIAM
ISBN: 9780898710021
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Book Description
A study of those statistical ideas that use a probability distribution over parameter space. The first part describes the axiomatic basis in the concept of coherence and the implications of this for sampling theory statistics. The second part discusses the use of Bayesian ideas in many branches of statistics.
Author: Florentin Smarandache editor
Publisher: Infinite Study
ISBN: 1931233675
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
Collected papers on neutrosophics [such as: ?neutrosophy? - a new branch of philosophy, ?neutrosophic logic? ? a generalization of the fuzzy logic, ?neutrosophic set? ? a generalization of the fuzzy set, and ?neutrosophic probability? ? a generalization of classical probability and imprecise probability] by Florentin Smarandache, Jean Dezert, Andrzej Buller, Mohammad Khoshnevisan, Sarjinder Singh, Sukanto Bhattacharya, Feng Liu, Gh. C. Dinulescu-Campina, Chris Lucas, and Carlos Gershenson.Neutrosophic Logic involved the foundation of the Dezert-Smarandache Theory of Plausible and Paradoxical Reasoning, which has taken into consideration the combination of uncertain and contradictory information, used now in artificial intelligence.
Author: Ralph L. Keeney
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483269914
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 432
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Book Description
Siting Energy Facilities describes a tool for making the process of finding sites for energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of society. The result should be better sites and a siting process that is understandable and defensible. A major focus of the approach is the systematic search for and identification of suitable candidate sites for the proposed facility. The evaluation of the candidate sites explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety, socioeconomic effects, and public attitudes, in addition to engineering and economic criteria. The procedure allows the inclusion of the uncertainties and value judgments that are a significant part of all energy siting problems. The material in this book can be categorized into three sections: problem definition, the methodological and procedural aspects of the decision analysis siting approach, and illustrations of its use. The first two chapters define what is meant by an energy facility siting problem and indicate the approach and motivation for the decision analysis siting procedure. Subsequent chapters discuss methodological and procedural details of the approach along with a case study on the selection of a site for a pumped storage power plant.
