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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276616474
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This note analyses inflation and competitiveness developments in selected EU countries, as input to the 2023 In-Depth Reviews under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. It aims to provide the analytical basis for the assessment of potential imbalances linked to competitiveness for Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia.1 These countries were selected after the first screening for imbalances in the 2023 Alert Mechanism Report on the basis of the evolution of their rates of inflation, unit labour costs and real effective exchange rates. Out of these Member States, only Romania has been considered to experience an imbalance in the 2022 assessment. This note considers the impact of common factors affecting inflation differentials and competitiveness, particularly of commodity price developments, to provide context to the forthcoming In-Depth Reviews under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The analysis to anticipate the evolution of potential risks by relying on the most recent data and available forecasts, and places recent developments in the context of changes that have taken place within and before the pandemic period.2 The analysis provided is not exhaustive. At the time of publication of the In-Depth Reviews, more up to date data will inform the assessments that will be made, and the existence or not of imbalances will take on board developments across countries' economies and additional country-specific factors. Since 2019, the EU economies have been faced with a combination of supply and demand shocks that have affected both relative prices and inflation. Throughout the pandemic and after, various bottlenecks have constrained supply. At the same time, containment measures during the acute phase of the pandemic and uncertainty constrained demand, particularly for contact intensive services, affecting relative prices. In the recovery phase, the rapid surge in demand, while supply was still facing constraints, pushed prices up. Price pressures for energy and commodities, but especially for natural gas, were aggravated significantly by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of supplies, particularly to Europe.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276616474
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This note analyses inflation and competitiveness developments in selected EU countries, as input to the 2023 In-Depth Reviews under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. It aims to provide the analytical basis for the assessment of potential imbalances linked to competitiveness for Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia.1 These countries were selected after the first screening for imbalances in the 2023 Alert Mechanism Report on the basis of the evolution of their rates of inflation, unit labour costs and real effective exchange rates. Out of these Member States, only Romania has been considered to experience an imbalance in the 2022 assessment. This note considers the impact of common factors affecting inflation differentials and competitiveness, particularly of commodity price developments, to provide context to the forthcoming In-Depth Reviews under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The analysis to anticipate the evolution of potential risks by relying on the most recent data and available forecasts, and places recent developments in the context of changes that have taken place within and before the pandemic period.2 The analysis provided is not exhaustive. At the time of publication of the In-Depth Reviews, more up to date data will inform the assessments that will be made, and the existence or not of imbalances will take on board developments across countries' economies and additional country-specific factors. Since 2019, the EU economies have been faced with a combination of supply and demand shocks that have affected both relative prices and inflation. Throughout the pandemic and after, various bottlenecks have constrained supply. At the same time, containment measures during the acute phase of the pandemic and uncertainty constrained demand, particularly for contact intensive services, affecting relative prices. In the recovery phase, the rapid surge in demand, while supply was still facing constraints, pushed prices up. Price pressures for energy and commodities, but especially for natural gas, were aggravated significantly by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of supplies, particularly to Europe.
Author: Nada Choueiri
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper explores inflation determinants within the EU and implications for new members' euro adoption plans. Factor analysis partitions observed inflation in EU25 countries into common-origin and country-specific (idiosyncratic) components. Cross-country differences in common-origin inflation within the EU are found to depend on gaps in the initial price level, changes in the nominal effective exchange rate, the quality of institutions, and the economy's flexibility. Idiosyncratic inflation is generally small in magnitude. Nonetheless, the results show that country-specific shocks have systematically pushed down headline inflation, potentially influencing the assessment of compliance with the Maastricht inflation criterion.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789291814107
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In this paper, we examine the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of the new European Union member states vis-à-vis the euro area in 1997-2007. Our main results are as follows. Exchange rate appreciation and higher price level in the new EU members is associated with narrower inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area, while fiscal deficit and positive output gap seem to contribute to higher inflation differential. Nevertheless, the effect of price convergence on inflation differentials is found to be dominating in these countries suggesting that a country with price level 20% below the euro area average is likely to exhibit inflation nearly one percentage point above the euro area. Overall, our results indicate that real convergence factors rather than cyclical variation are more important for inflation developments in the new EU members, as compared to the euro area. -- inflation differentials ; price convergence ; exchange rate ; New EU members ; panel data
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We propose an alternative explanation for the nature, sources and consequences of inflation rate differentials in a monetary union, such as the euro area. We build on the new neoclassical synthesis (NNS) framework, recently advanced by Goodfriend (2002) and Goodfriend and King (2000). Based on the NNS setup, we discuss the inflationary consequences of the catching-up process in a heterogeneous monetary union. In particular, we explore the interaction between catching-up and inflation differentials and offer an interpretation of the nature of this interaction. We demonstrate that divergent inflation rates between Member States do not necessarily have to be an equilibrium phenomenon, even if the original shock comes from the supply-side of the economy. Second, we show how such divergence of individual country's inflation rates may arise when countries differ in size and in trend productivity growth.
Author: Eva Ortega Eslava
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789284699490
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
According to its price stability mandate, the European Central Bank (ECB) conducts a single monetary policy by targeting the aggregate euro area inflation rate. Even though monetary policy is not geared towards addressing inflation dispersion between Member States, wide inflation differentials have implications for monetary policy. At the moment of extreme volatility and high energy prices, Member States experience very high levels of headline and core inflation dispersion, affecting monetary policy transmission. Notable differences can also be viewed in inflation expectations and wage-price dynamics, with all these factors putting constraints on the ECB to deliver on its price stability mandate effectively. Three papers were prepared by the ECON Committee's Monetary Expert Panel, analysing inflation dispersion in the euro area and the policy implications arising from wide inflation differentials. This publication was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 28 of November.
Author: Eva Ortega
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Author: Arthur Francis
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 100088435X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227
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Book Description
First published in 1989, The Competitiveness of European Industry helps in developing our understanding of the process of improving and measuring industrial competitiveness. The contributors focus on the competitiveness of European industry. Three main topics are discussed: the concept of competitiveness itself; what can be learned about competitiveness at the level of an individual national economy; and processes and strategies in forms which might contribute to improved competitive performance. The first two papers critically assess concepts and measures of national competitiveness and review the performances of the economies of Britain, France, and the Federal German Republic. Then follow accounts of industrial competitiveness in three smaller economies (Belgium, Switzerland, and Sweden), which develop a series of methods and techniques for the analysis of industrial structures and indicate significant policy implications. The three concluding papers look at the competitiveness of British industry at the firm level, focusing on the strategic changes, the competitive process, and technical innovation. This book will be of interest to policy makers, business school teachers, and researchers in the area of strategy, industrial economics, organization behaviour, and innovation management.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
