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Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262571647
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 404
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Book Description
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262571647
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 404
Get Book Here
Book Description
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190286768
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 432
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Book Description
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.
Author: Derek J. Koehler
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470752912
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 680
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Book Description
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Author: William P. Forbes
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128124954
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
A Fast and Frugal Finance: Bridging Contemporary Behavioural Finance and Ecological Rationality adds psychological reality to classical financial reasoning. It shows how financial professionals can reach better and quicker decisions using the 'fast and frugal' framework for decision-making, adding dramatically to time and outcome efficiency, while also retaining accuracy. The book provides the reader with an adaptive toolbox of heuristic tools and classification systems to aid real-world decisions. Throughout, financial applications are presented alongside real-world examples to help readers solve established problems in finance, including stock buying and selling decisions, when faced with not only risk but fundamental uncertainty. The book concludes by describing potential solutions to financial problems in the forefront of contemporary debates, and calls for taking psychological insights seriously.
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Penguin UK
ISBN: 0141015918
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Book Description
Think less � and know more. A sportsman can catch a ball without calculating its speed or distance. A group of amateurs beat the experts at playing the stock market. A man falls for the right woman even though she�s �wrong� on paper. All these people succeeded by trusting their instincts � but how does it work? In Gut Feelings psychologist and behavioural expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. He explains that, in an uncertain world, sometimes we have to ignore too much information and rely on our brain�s �short cut�, or heuristic. By explaining how intuition works and analyzing the techniques that people use to make good decisions � whether it�s in personnel selection or heart surgery � Gigerenzer will show you why gut thinking can change your world.
Author: James Shanteau
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461550890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 425
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Book Description
Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.
Author: Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262361957
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
Rules for building formal models that use fast-and-frugal heuristics, extending the psychological study of classification to the real world of uncertainty. This book focuses on classification--allocating objects into categories--"in the wild," in real-world situations and far from the certainty of the lab. In the wild, unlike in typical psychological experiments, the future is not knowable and uncertainty cannot be meaningfully reduced to probability. Connecting the science of heuristics with machine learning, the book shows how to create formal models using classification rules that are simple, fast, and transparent and that can be as accurate as mathematically sophisticated algorithms developed for machine learning.
Author: Markus Raab
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128235608
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 174
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Book Description
Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices introduces a new concept of embodied choices which take sensorimotor experiences into account when limited time and resources forces a person to make a quick decision. This book combines areas of cognitive psychology and movement science, presenting an integrative approach to understanding human functioning in everyday scenarios. This is the first book focusing on the role of the gut as a second brain, introducing the link to risky behavior. The book's author engages readers by providing real-life experiences and scenarios connecting theory to practice. - Discusses the role of gut feelings and the brain-gut behavior connection - Demonstrates that behavior influences decision and other people's perceptions about mood or character - Includes research on medical decisions and shopping decisions - Illustrates how to train embodied choices
Author: Mark Kelman
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199842469
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
All of us use heuristics--that is, we reach conclusions using shorthand cues without using or analyzing all of the available information. Heuristics pervade all aspects of life, from the most mundane practices to more important ones, like economic decision making and politics. People may decide how fast to drive merely by mimicking others around them or decide in which safety project to invest public resources based on the past disasters most readily called to mind. Not surprisingly, opinions vary about our tendency to use heuristics. The 'heuristics and biases' school argues that the practice often leads to outcomes that are not ideal: people act on too little information, make incorrect assumptions, and don't understand the consequences of their actions. The 'fast and frugal' school contends that while mistakes will inevitably occur, the benefits generally outweigh the costs--not only because using heuristics enables us to reach judgments given realistic constraints of time and attention, but because heuristics users often outperform those using more conventionally rational methods. In The Heuristics Debate, Mark Kelman takes a step back from the chaos of competing academic debates to consider what we have learned--and still need to learn--about the way people actually make decisions. In doing so, Kelman uncovers a powerful tool for understanding the relationship between human reasoning and public policy. Can we figure out more optimal modes of disclosure to consumers or better rules of evidence and jury instructions if we understand more accurately how people process information? Can we figure out how best to increase compliance with law if we understand how people make decisions about whether or not to comply? Alongside a penetrating analysis of the various schools of thought on heuristics, Kelman offers a comprehensive account of how distinct conceptions of the role and nature of heuristic reasoning shape--and misshape--law and policy in America. The Heuristics Debate is a groundbreaking work that will change how we think about the relationship between human psychology, the law, and public policy.
Author: Peter M. Todd
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019971794X
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 609
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Book Description
"More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.
