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Author: Karl Frederick Spielmann
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781138601963
Category : Intelligence service
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Preface : revisiting an old problem : new concerns, new remedies -- Maybe it's time for something different -- Strengthening intelligence threat analysis -- Using enhanced analytic techniques for threat analysis : a case study illustration -- I got algorithm : can there be a Nate Silver in intelligence?
Author: Karl Frederick Spielmann
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781138601963
Category : Intelligence service
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Preface : revisiting an old problem : new concerns, new remedies -- Maybe it's time for something different -- Strengthening intelligence threat analysis -- Using enhanced analytic techniques for threat analysis : a case study illustration -- I got algorithm : can there be a Nate Silver in intelligence?
Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN: 1839743050
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Author: David T. Moore
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437934927
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.
Author: Noel Hendrickson
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442272325
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 357
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Book Description
The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.
Author: Martha Whitesmith
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
ISBN: 1474466362
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 305
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Book Description
This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Author: Gheorghe Tecuci
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107122600
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 285
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Book Description
Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence.
Author: Gregory F. Treverton
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833046012
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 75
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Book Description
This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309163420
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Author: Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 148331202X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 385
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Book Description
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Author: Pei Wang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1402050453
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 420
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Book Description
This book is the most comprehensive description of the decades-long Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS) project, including its philosophical foundation, methodological consideration, conceptual design details, implications in the related fields, and its similarities and differences to many related works in cognitive science. While most current works in Artificial Intelligence (AI) focus on individual aspects of intelligence and cognition, NARS is designed and developed to attack the AI problem as a whole.
