Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309163420
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Book Description
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309163420
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Book Description
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309163420
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Book Description
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Intelligence Analysis
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309210925
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 352
Book Description
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309210925
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 352
Book Description
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Reducing Uncertainty
Author: Thomas Fingar
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 080477594X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192
Book Description
This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 080477594X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192
Book Description
This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.
Enemies of Intelligence
Author: Richard K. Betts
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 023113889X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 266
Book Description
Combining study with experience, Richard K. Betts draws on three decades of work within the U.S. intelligence community to illuminate the paradoxes and problems that frustrate the intelligence process. Unlike America's efforts to improve its defenses against natural disasters, strengthening its strategic assessment capabilities means outwitting crafty enemies who operate beyond U.S. borders. It also requires looking within to the organizational and political dynamics of collecting information and determining its implications for policy. Betts outlines key strategies for better intelligence gathering and assessment. He describes how fixing one malfunction can create another; in what ways expertise can be both a vital tool and a source of error and misjudgment; the pitfalls of always striving for accuracy in intelligence, which in some cases can render it worthless; the danger, though unavoidable, of "politicizing" intelligence; and the issue of secrecy--when it is excessive, when it is insufficient, and how limiting privacy can in fact protect civil liberties. Grounding his arguments in extensive theory and policy analysis, Betts takes a comprehensive and realistic look at the convergence of knowledge and power in facing the intelligence challenges of the twenty-first century.
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 023113889X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 266
Book Description
Combining study with experience, Richard K. Betts draws on three decades of work within the U.S. intelligence community to illuminate the paradoxes and problems that frustrate the intelligence process. Unlike America's efforts to improve its defenses against natural disasters, strengthening its strategic assessment capabilities means outwitting crafty enemies who operate beyond U.S. borders. It also requires looking within to the organizational and political dynamics of collecting information and determining its implications for policy. Betts outlines key strategies for better intelligence gathering and assessment. He describes how fixing one malfunction can create another; in what ways expertise can be both a vital tool and a source of error and misjudgment; the pitfalls of always striving for accuracy in intelligence, which in some cases can render it worthless; the danger, though unavoidable, of "politicizing" intelligence; and the issue of secrecy--when it is excessive, when it is insufficient, and how limiting privacy can in fact protect civil liberties. Grounding his arguments in extensive theory and policy analysis, Betts takes a comprehensive and realistic look at the convergence of knowledge and power in facing the intelligence challenges of the twenty-first century.
Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy
Author: Sheila Wright
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317980956
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 329
Book Description
The Holy Grail for most organisations is the successful attainment, and retention, of inimitable competitive advantage. This book addresses the question of how to leverage the unique intangible assets of an organisation: its explicit, implicit, acquired and derived knowledge. The refreshingly innovative concept of Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage© is one which will eclipse the cost-driven and resource-reduction attitudes most prevalent in the first decade of this century. Tomorrow’s organisation will need to derive IBCA© through the expert execution of bespoke competitive intelligence practice, unique analytical processes, pioneering competitive strategy formulation, and timely execution of all three, if they are to succeed. This volume consists of insights from Competitive Intelligence practices at both country and organisational level, Competitive Analysis processes within the firm and within challenging sector and economic environments and Competitive Strategy formulation in profit, non-profit, real and virtual world contexts. It is essential reading for anybody wishing to gain a formal understanding of the practical and intellectual challenges which will face organisations in the future as they strive to achieve strategic foresight and Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage. This book was originally published as two special issues of the Journal of Strategic Marketing.
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317980956
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 329
Book Description
The Holy Grail for most organisations is the successful attainment, and retention, of inimitable competitive advantage. This book addresses the question of how to leverage the unique intangible assets of an organisation: its explicit, implicit, acquired and derived knowledge. The refreshingly innovative concept of Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage© is one which will eclipse the cost-driven and resource-reduction attitudes most prevalent in the first decade of this century. Tomorrow’s organisation will need to derive IBCA© through the expert execution of bespoke competitive intelligence practice, unique analytical processes, pioneering competitive strategy formulation, and timely execution of all three, if they are to succeed. This volume consists of insights from Competitive Intelligence practices at both country and organisational level, Competitive Analysis processes within the firm and within challenging sector and economic environments and Competitive Strategy formulation in profit, non-profit, real and virtual world contexts. It is essential reading for anybody wishing to gain a formal understanding of the practical and intellectual challenges which will face organisations in the future as they strive to achieve strategic foresight and Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage. This book was originally published as two special issues of the Journal of Strategic Marketing.
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN: 1839743050
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Book Description
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN: 1839743050
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Book Description
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
The Organisation of Tomorrow
Author: Mark Van Rijmenam
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000007677
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 177
Book Description
The Organisation of Tomorrow presents a new model of doing business and explains how big data analytics, blockchain and artificial intelligence force us to rethink existing business models and develop organisations that will be ready for human-machine interactions. It also asks us to consider the impacts of these emerging information technologies on people and society. Big data analytics empowers consumers and employees. This can result in an open strategy and a better understanding of the changing environment. Blockchain enables peer-to-peer collaboration and trustless interactions governed by cryptography and smart contracts. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence allows for new and different levels of intensity and involvement among human and artificial actors. With that, new modes of organising are emerging: where technology facilitates collaboration between stakeholders; and where human-to-human interactions are increasingly replaced with human-to-machine and even machine-to-machine interactions. This book offers dozens of examples of industry leaders such as Walmart, Telstra, Alibaba, Microsoft and T-Mobile, before presenting the D2 + A2 model – a new model to help organisations datafy their business, distribute their data, analyse it for insights and automate processes and customer touchpoints to be ready for the data-driven and exponentially-changing society that is upon us This book offers governments, professional services, manufacturing, finance, retail and other industries a clear approach for how to develop products and services that are ready for the twenty-first century. It is a must-read for every organisation that wants to remain competitive in our fast-changing world.
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000007677
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 177
Book Description
The Organisation of Tomorrow presents a new model of doing business and explains how big data analytics, blockchain and artificial intelligence force us to rethink existing business models and develop organisations that will be ready for human-machine interactions. It also asks us to consider the impacts of these emerging information technologies on people and society. Big data analytics empowers consumers and employees. This can result in an open strategy and a better understanding of the changing environment. Blockchain enables peer-to-peer collaboration and trustless interactions governed by cryptography and smart contracts. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence allows for new and different levels of intensity and involvement among human and artificial actors. With that, new modes of organising are emerging: where technology facilitates collaboration between stakeholders; and where human-to-human interactions are increasingly replaced with human-to-machine and even machine-to-machine interactions. This book offers dozens of examples of industry leaders such as Walmart, Telstra, Alibaba, Microsoft and T-Mobile, before presenting the D2 + A2 model – a new model to help organisations datafy their business, distribute their data, analyse it for insights and automate processes and customer touchpoints to be ready for the data-driven and exponentially-changing society that is upon us This book offers governments, professional services, manufacturing, finance, retail and other industries a clear approach for how to develop products and services that are ready for the twenty-first century. It is a must-read for every organisation that wants to remain competitive in our fast-changing world.
Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309152666
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 115
Book Description
On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences-based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the workshop was to discuss the best ways to take methods and tools from behavioral science and apply them to work in intelligence operations. More specifically, the workshop focused on the issue of field evaluation-the testing of these methods and tools in the context in which they will be used in order to determine if they are effective in real-world settings. This book is a summary and synthesis of the two days of presentations and discussions that took place during the workshop. The workshop participants included invited speakers and experts from a number of areas related to the behavioral sciences and the intelligence community. The discussions covered such ground as the obstacles to field evaluation of behavioral science tools and methods, the importance of field evaluation, and various lessons learned from experience with field evaluation in other areas.
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309152666
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 115
Book Description
On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences-based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the workshop was to discuss the best ways to take methods and tools from behavioral science and apply them to work in intelligence operations. More specifically, the workshop focused on the issue of field evaluation-the testing of these methods and tools in the context in which they will be used in order to determine if they are effective in real-world settings. This book is a summary and synthesis of the two days of presentations and discussions that took place during the workshop. The workshop participants included invited speakers and experts from a number of areas related to the behavioral sciences and the intelligence community. The discussions covered such ground as the obstacles to field evaluation of behavioral science tools and methods, the importance of field evaluation, and various lessons learned from experience with field evaluation in other areas.
Intelligence and Strategy
Author: John Ferris
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134233345
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 414
Book Description
John Ferris' work in strategic and intelligence history is widely praised for its originality and the breadth of its research. At last his major pioneering articles are now available in this one single volume. In Intelligence and Strategy these essential articles have been fundamentally revised to incorporate new evidence and information withheld by governments when they were first published. This volume reshapes the study of communications intelligence by tracing Britain's development of cipher machines providing the context to Ultra and Enigma, and by explaining how British and German signals intelligence shaped the desert war. The author also explains how intelligence affected British strategy and diplomacy from 1874 to 1940 and world diplomacy during the 1930s and the Second World War. Finally he traces the roots for contemporary intelligence, and analyzes intelligence and the RMA as well as the role of intelligence in the 2003 Gulf War. This volume ultimately brings new light to our understanding of the relations between intelligence, strategy and diplomacy between the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 21st century.
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134233345
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 414
Book Description
John Ferris' work in strategic and intelligence history is widely praised for its originality and the breadth of its research. At last his major pioneering articles are now available in this one single volume. In Intelligence and Strategy these essential articles have been fundamentally revised to incorporate new evidence and information withheld by governments when they were first published. This volume reshapes the study of communications intelligence by tracing Britain's development of cipher machines providing the context to Ultra and Enigma, and by explaining how British and German signals intelligence shaped the desert war. The author also explains how intelligence affected British strategy and diplomacy from 1874 to 1940 and world diplomacy during the 1930s and the Second World War. Finally he traces the roots for contemporary intelligence, and analyzes intelligence and the RMA as well as the role of intelligence in the 2003 Gulf War. This volume ultimately brings new light to our understanding of the relations between intelligence, strategy and diplomacy between the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 21st century.
Improving Intelligence Analysis
Author: Stephen Marrin
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136680470
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 193
Book Description
This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136680470
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 193
Book Description
This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.