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Author: W. Joseph Campbell
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520397827
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Author: W. Joseph Campbell
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520397827
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 366
Get Book Here
Book Description
This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Author: David H. Maidenberg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Election workers
Languages : en
Pages : 90
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Book Description
Author: Vanessa Ratten
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000682307
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
Whilst there has been an increased interest in minorities and their contribution to society, the literature on minorities and under-represented communities is still weak. This edited volume discusses entrepreneurship in the context of minorities and the role they play in society. The book looks at under-represented communities such as LGBTQ+, disadvantaged, ethnic minority, religious entrepreneurs, medically limited, indigenous, refugees, young/old and other socio-economic segments. It provides a holistic, comprehensive overview of how diversity in entrepreneurship facilitates increased levels of innovation. The book will be amongst the first to take a broad perspective of minority entrepreneurs.
Author: Election Integrity Partnership
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781736762721
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Robert S. Erikson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226922162
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 221
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Book Description
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author: Alexander Holmes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1801
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Book Description
Introductory Business Statistics 2e aligns with the topics and objectives of the typical one-semester statistics course for business, economics, and related majors. The text provides detailed and supportive explanations and extensive step-by-step walkthroughs. The author places a significant emphasis on the development and practical application of formulas so that students have a deeper understanding of their interpretation and application of data. Problems and exercises are largely centered on business topics, though other applications are provided in order to increase relevance and showcase the critical role of statistics in a number of fields and real-world contexts. The second edition retains the organization of the original text. Based on extensive feedback from adopters and students, the revision focused on improving currency and relevance, particularly in examples and problems. This is an adaptation of Introductory Business Statistics 2e by OpenStax. You can access the textbook as pdf for free at openstax.org. Minor editorial changes were made to ensure a better ebook reading experience. Textbook content produced by OpenStax is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Elections
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Public opinion
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
Author: Erwin Chemerinsky
Publisher: Liveright Publishing
ISBN: 1631496522
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 344
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Book Description
An unprecedented work of civil rights and legal history, Presumed Guilty reveals how the Supreme Court has enabled racist policing and sanctioned law enforcement excesses through its decisions over the last half-century. Police are nine times more likely to kill African-American men than they are other Americans—in fact, nearly one in every thousand will die at the hands, or under the knee, of an officer. As eminent constitutional scholar Erwin Chemerinsky powerfully argues, this is no accident, but the horrific result of an elaborate body of doctrines that allow the police and, crucially, the courts to presume that suspects—especially people of color—are guilty before being charged. Today in the United States, much attention is focused on the enormous problems of police violence and racism in law enforcement. Too often, though, that attention fails to place the blame where it most belongs, on the courts, and specifically, on the Supreme Court. A “smoking gun” of civil rights research, Presumed Guilty presents a groundbreaking, decades-long history of judicial failure in America, revealing how the Supreme Court has enabled racist practices, including profiling and intimidation, and legitimated gross law enforcement excesses that disproportionately affect people of color. For the greater part of its existence, Chemerinsky shows, deference to and empowerment of the police have been the modi operandi of the Supreme Court. From its conception in the late eighteenth century until the Warren Court in 1953, the Supreme Court rarely ruled against the police, and then only when police conduct was truly shocking. Animating seminal cases and justices from the Court’s history, Chemerinsky—who has himself litigated cases dealing with police misconduct for decades—shows how the Court has time and again refused to impose constitutional checks on police, all the while deliberately gutting remedies Americans might use to challenge police misconduct. Finally, in an unprecedented series of landmark rulings in the mid-1950s and 1960s, the pro-defendant Warren Court imposed significant constitutional limits on policing. Yet as Chemerinsky demonstrates, the Warren Court was but a brief historical aberration, a fleeting liberal era that ultimately concluded with Nixon’s presidency and the ascendance of conservative and “originalist” justices, whose rulings—in Terry v. Ohio (1968), City of Los Angeles v. Lyons (1983), and Whren v. United States (1996), among other cases—have sanctioned stop-and-frisks, limited suits to reform police departments, and even abetted the use of lethal chokeholds. Written with a lawyer’s knowledge and experience, Presumed Guilty definitively proves that an approach to policing that continues to exalt “Dirty Harry” can be transformed only by a robust court system committed to civil rights. In the tradition of Richard Rothstein’s The Color of Law, Presumed Guilty is a necessary intervention into the roiling national debates over racial inequality and reform, creating a history where none was before—and promising to transform our understanding of the systems that enable police brutality.
Author: United States. Office of Education
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Public libraries
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
