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Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.
Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
Get Book Here
Book Description
Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.
Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Author: Amarjit Singh
Publisher: ASCE Press
ISBN: 9780784414637
Category : Construction industry
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Singh introduces valuable techniques for weighing and evaluating alternatives in decision making with a focus on risk analysis for identifying, quantifying, and mitigating risks associated with construction projects.
Author: Alex C. Arthur
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119693004
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 436
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Book Description
CONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING Explores the relevance of systems thinking and behavioral science in construction risk management Effective risk management is a vital component of all successful construction projects. Although quantitative tools for evaluating data and minimizing risk are readily available, construction managers commonly adopt a more innate, experience-based approach. In Construction Risk Management Decision Making, project manager and senior consultant Alex C. Arthur provides step-by-step advice on assessing and prioritizing risk using qualitative decision-making systems in the construction industry. Incorporating key theories and concepts from systems thinking and behavioral science, this highly practical guide focuses on the behavior patterns of real people in the industry, rather than complex quantitative techniques and data. Concise, easy-to-understand chapters highlight the current practices of construction risk management while helping readers view risk and decision making from a broader perspective. Throughout the book, the author presents invaluable insights into the ways construction professionals think and behave in the real world. Addresses the actual risk management practices of construction professionals Applies human behavioral theories to the study of construction risk management decision making Illustrates the highly intuitive approaches prevalent in various construction projects Features real-life case studies and practical examples throughout Construction Risk Management Decision Making is an excellent textbook for advanced students in project management, engineering, construction, and surveying courses, and a must-have guide for practitioners of construction management, surveying, and architecture.
Author: Christopher O. Cox
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000416143
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 125
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Book Description
Identifies the quantitative measures to assess behavior induced risks Presents a framework to limit the interpersonal tension of addressing behavioral risks Offers an empirical case study in the oil and gas domain demonstrating use of the framework Addresses the missing dimension of behavior-centric intangible risk factors in current risk identification and management processes Provides a systematic analytical approach to mitigate subjectivity when addressing behavioral risks in projects
Author: John K. Hollmann
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781941075029
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 416
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Book Description
Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.
Author: M. A. Mian
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781955578264
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Norman Fenton
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439809100
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 527
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Book Description
Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.
Author: David Whitman
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303179348X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 205
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Book Description
The authors cover two general topics: basic engineering economics and risk analysis in this text. Within the topic of engineering economics are discussions on the time value of money and interest relationships. These interest relationships are used to define certain project criteria that are used by engineers and project managers to select the best economic choice among several alternatives. Projects examined will include both income- and service-producing investments. The effects of escalation, inflation, and taxes on the economic analysis of alternatives are discussed. Risk analysis incorporates the concepts of probability and statistics in the evaluation of alternatives. This allows management to determine the probability of success or failure of the project. Two types of sensitivity analyses are presented. The first is referred to as the range approach while the second uses probabilistic concepts to determine a measure of the risk involved. The authors have designed the text to assist individuals to prepare to successfully complete the economics portions of the Fundamentals of Engineering Exam. Table of Contents: Introduction / Interest and the Time Value of Money / Project Evaluation Methods / Service Producing Investments / Income Producing Investments / Determination of Project Cash Flow / Financial Leverage / Basic Statistics and Probability / Sensitivity Analysis
Author: Chongfu Huang
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1138000191
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 968
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Book Description
In this present internet age, risk analysis and crisis response based on information will make up a digital world full of possibilities and improvements to people’s daily life and capabilities. These services will be supported by more intelligent systems and more effective decisionmaking. This book contains all the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, August 27-29, 2013, Istanbul, Turkey. The theme was intelligent systems and decision making for risk analysis and crisis response. The risk issues in the papers cluster around the following topics: natural disasters, finance risks, food and feed safety, catastrophic accidents, critical infrastructure, global climate change, project management, supply chains, public health, threats to social safety, energy and environment. This volume will be of interest to all professionals and academics in the field of risk analysis, crisis response, intelligent systems and decision-making, as well as related fields of enquiry.
