Regional Frequency Analysis Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events Under Climate Change PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Regional Frequency Analysis Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events Under Climate Change PDF full book. Access full book title Regional Frequency Analysis Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events Under Climate Change by Zhe Yang. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Zhe Yang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Extreme rainfall events have a long history of causing large economic damages in urban areas and even loss of human life. Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall intensities for different rainfall durations are essential for the effective planning of drainage systems under climate change to balance the construction costs and potential damages caused by future extreme rainfall events. The information required for design rainfall events can be obtained through frequency analysis of extreme rainfall. However, extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from the traditional approach of frequency analysis have become increasingly unreliable under climate change. With increasing global temperatures and the uneven distribution of atmosphere moisture, the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events can experience accelerated changes. Thus, urban drainage systems designed based on extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from historical records are becoming increasingly ineffective. Under the impacts of climate change, extreme rainfall events are becoming one of the most destructive natural hazards in the world. Frequency analysis of the extreme rainfall events used to estimate the probability of exceedance of extreme rainfall events of a given magnitude in the future context can generate unreliable estimates under climate change because of two issues. Firstly, there are often insufficient data records available for the quantification of extreme rainfall events of interest from a design perspective. Since extreme rainfall events are rare, there is large uncertainty in quantile estimates obtained from using only the information from the site of interest. Thus, regional frequency analysis, which expands the data records through gathering information from sites sharing similar rainfall patterns, is widely used and is applied in this research. Secondly, the traditional assumption that there is a repetitive pattern in the occurrences of extreme rainfall events has become invalid in a nonstationary environment. Since extreme rainfall patterns can be altered in the future, estimates for rainfall quantiles obtained from using frequency analysis in a historical stationary environment can be unreliable when applied for future conditions. Further research is required into applying the regional frequency analysis approach for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles under climate change. To provide reliable regional estimates of rainfall quantiles for different rainfall durations under climate change, this research improves regional frequency analysis through exploring the following issues: 1) An improved procedure for homogeneous group formation for historical stationary periods. Extreme rainfall events have been affected by climate change. A three-layer searching algorithm is proposed for homogeneous group formation in a stationary environment for the consideration of climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall events. 2) An adjustment procedure for homogeneous group formation in the future stationary environment. Under the assumption that extreme rainfall patterns remain stationary within a 30-year period, a procedure is proposed to adjust the optimal homogeneous group formation from the previous temporal periods to reflect conditions in future 30-year periods. 3) A procedure used for rainfall quantile estimation in a future nonstationary environment. Under the assumption that the extreme rainfall series exhibit nonstationary behavior during the whole future period, a one-step forward procedure is constructed based on the unscented Kalman filter to consider the potential non-monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall events at different return periods. In this approach, the homogeneous groups are formed using a trend centered pooling approach. The proposed methodology fills the gaps of considering climate change impacts on homogeneous group formation in both historical and future stationary environments and challenges the assumption of monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall quantiles used in the traditional regional frequency analysis for stations exhibiting nonstationary behavior. The proposed procedures have been extensively tested using large sets of climate data in both historical and future contexts and have been shown to improve the extreme rainfall quantile estimates in both historical and future contexts.
Author: Zhe Yang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Extreme rainfall events have a long history of causing large economic damages in urban areas and even loss of human life. Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall intensities for different rainfall durations are essential for the effective planning of drainage systems under climate change to balance the construction costs and potential damages caused by future extreme rainfall events. The information required for design rainfall events can be obtained through frequency analysis of extreme rainfall. However, extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from the traditional approach of frequency analysis have become increasingly unreliable under climate change. With increasing global temperatures and the uneven distribution of atmosphere moisture, the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events can experience accelerated changes. Thus, urban drainage systems designed based on extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from historical records are becoming increasingly ineffective. Under the impacts of climate change, extreme rainfall events are becoming one of the most destructive natural hazards in the world. Frequency analysis of the extreme rainfall events used to estimate the probability of exceedance of extreme rainfall events of a given magnitude in the future context can generate unreliable estimates under climate change because of two issues. Firstly, there are often insufficient data records available for the quantification of extreme rainfall events of interest from a design perspective. Since extreme rainfall events are rare, there is large uncertainty in quantile estimates obtained from using only the information from the site of interest. Thus, regional frequency analysis, which expands the data records through gathering information from sites sharing similar rainfall patterns, is widely used and is applied in this research. Secondly, the traditional assumption that there is a repetitive pattern in the occurrences of extreme rainfall events has become invalid in a nonstationary environment. Since extreme rainfall patterns can be altered in the future, estimates for rainfall quantiles obtained from using frequency analysis in a historical stationary environment can be unreliable when applied for future conditions. Further research is required into applying the regional frequency analysis approach for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles under climate change. To provide reliable regional estimates of rainfall quantiles for different rainfall durations under climate change, this research improves regional frequency analysis through exploring the following issues: 1) An improved procedure for homogeneous group formation for historical stationary periods. Extreme rainfall events have been affected by climate change. A three-layer searching algorithm is proposed for homogeneous group formation in a stationary environment for the consideration of climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall events. 2) An adjustment procedure for homogeneous group formation in the future stationary environment. Under the assumption that extreme rainfall patterns remain stationary within a 30-year period, a procedure is proposed to adjust the optimal homogeneous group formation from the previous temporal periods to reflect conditions in future 30-year periods. 3) A procedure used for rainfall quantile estimation in a future nonstationary environment. Under the assumption that the extreme rainfall series exhibit nonstationary behavior during the whole future period, a one-step forward procedure is constructed based on the unscented Kalman filter to consider the potential non-monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall events at different return periods. In this approach, the homogeneous groups are formed using a trend centered pooling approach. The proposed methodology fills the gaps of considering climate change impacts on homogeneous group formation in both historical and future stationary environments and challenges the assumption of monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall quantiles used in the traditional regional frequency analysis for stations exhibiting nonstationary behavior. The proposed procedures have been extensively tested using large sets of climate data in both historical and future contexts and have been shown to improve the extreme rainfall quantile estimates in both historical and future contexts.
Author: Stuart Coles
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447136756
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 219
Get Book Here
Book Description
Directly oriented towards real practical application, this book develops both the basic theoretical framework of extreme value models and the statistical inferential techniques for using these models in practice. Intended for statisticians and non-statisticians alike, the theoretical treatment is elementary, with heuristics often replacing detailed mathematical proof. Most aspects of extreme modeling techniques are covered, including historical techniques (still widely used) and contemporary techniques based on point process models. A wide range of worked examples, using genuine datasets, illustrate the various modeling procedures and a concluding chapter provides a brief introduction to a number of more advanced topics, including Bayesian inference and spatial extremes. All the computations are carried out using S-PLUS, and the corresponding datasets and functions are available via the Internet for readers to recreate examples for themselves. An essential reference for students and researchers in statistics and disciplines such as engineering, finance and environmental science, this book will also appeal to practitioners looking for practical help in solving real problems. Stuart Coles is Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol, UK, having previously lectured at the universities of Nottingham and Lancaster. In 1992 he was the first recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's research prize. He has published widely in the statistical literature, principally in the area of extreme value modeling.
Author: Assefa M. Melesse
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0128159995
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 580
Get Book Here
Book Description
Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187
Get Book Here
Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Author: Nor Eliza Binti Alias
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 200
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: World Meteorological Organization
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Flood forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 294
Get Book Here
Book Description
The manual describes procedure for estimating the maximum probable precipitation and the maximum probable flood. This is the third revised version. The first and second editions of this manual were published in 1973 and 1986, respectively. The current edition keeps a majority of the content from the second edition. Newly added content in this third edition primarily results from experiences, since 1986, in directly estimating PMP for the requirements of a given project in a design watershed on probable maximum flood (PMF) in China, the United States of America, Australia and India.--Publisher's description.
Author: Ramesh S. V. Teegavarapu
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139851659
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 289
Get Book Here
Book Description
Measurement, analysis and modeling of extreme precipitation events linked to floods is vital in understanding changing climate impacts and variability. This book provides methods for assessment of the trends in these events and their impacts. It also provides a basis to develop procedures and guidelines for climate-adaptive hydrologic engineering. Academic researchers in the fields of hydrology, climate change, meteorology, environmental policy and risk assessment, and professionals and policy-makers working in hazard mitigation, water resources engineering and climate adaptation will find this an invaluable resource. This volume is the first in a collection of four books on flood disaster management theory and practice within the context of anthropogenic climate change. The others are: Floods in a Changing Climate: Hydrological Modeling by P. P. Mujumdar and D. Nagesh Kumar, Floods in a Changing Climate: Inundation Modeling by Giuliano Di Baldassarre and Floods in a Changing Climate: Risk Management by Slodoban Simonović.
Author: Min Young Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Patrick Willems
Publisher: IWA Publishing
ISBN: 1780401256
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 239
Get Book Here
Book Description
Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics. This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. Authors: Patrick Willems, University of Leuven, Hydraulics division; Jonas Olsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Simon Beecham, University of South Australia, School of Natural and Built Environments; Assela Pathirana, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; Ida Bulow Gregersen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Henrik Madsen, DHI Water & Environment, Water Resources Department; Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, McGill University, Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309471699
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 207
Get Book Here
Book Description
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
