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Author: Binbin Deng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
This paper tries to draw on the relative merits of both the jump risk models and the long-run risk models with a linkage established by Bayesian learning, in an attempt to improve both asset pricing approaches in producing a better mechanism for understanding asset prices regularities.Rather than treating event risk as direct jumps in the level of aggregate income, we model it as changes in the underlying state of the world, the economic regimes, which affect aggregate consumption and dividend flows through their growth and volatility's dependence on the state.Realistically, information about the state transition is imperfect in this representative agent endowment economy and agents with recursive utility perform Bayesian learning to form and update beliefs about the conditional state arrival in order to make optimal long-run consumption investment decisions. This new learning component to the consumption-based paradigm will generate novel pricing implications through inducing extra covariance to be priced. Specifically, besides the aggregate uncertainty stemming from jump risk exposure, the presence of imperfect learning behavior also generates individual ambiguity. We shall see that such dual channels can help better explain some asset pricing regularities observed, e.g. the dual puzzles, predictability issues, time-varying conditional moments, etc., and shed some new light on the long-run cash flow news approach in asset pricing.
Author: Binbin Deng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
This paper tries to draw on the relative merits of both the jump risk models and the long-run risk models with a linkage established by Bayesian learning, in an attempt to improve both asset pricing approaches in producing a better mechanism for understanding asset prices regularities.Rather than treating event risk as direct jumps in the level of aggregate income, we model it as changes in the underlying state of the world, the economic regimes, which affect aggregate consumption and dividend flows through their growth and volatility's dependence on the state.Realistically, information about the state transition is imperfect in this representative agent endowment economy and agents with recursive utility perform Bayesian learning to form and update beliefs about the conditional state arrival in order to make optimal long-run consumption investment decisions. This new learning component to the consumption-based paradigm will generate novel pricing implications through inducing extra covariance to be priced. Specifically, besides the aggregate uncertainty stemming from jump risk exposure, the presence of imperfect learning behavior also generates individual ambiguity. We shall see that such dual channels can help better explain some asset pricing regularities observed, e.g. the dual puzzles, predictability issues, time-varying conditional moments, etc., and shed some new light on the long-run cash flow news approach in asset pricing.
Author: Francisco Vazquez-Grande
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781267835536
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 83
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Book Description
I document business-cycle properties and a significant increase in the average level of risk-prices in the presence of learning in economies with homogeneous agents, and in the presence of agents with heterogeneous beliefs based on learning. I solve a model with long-run risk where both, the level and persistence of expected consumption growth are unobserved. I introduce a new methodology to quantify the effects of learning about parameter uncertainty and latent variables. The average historical maximum Sharpe ratios increases significantly in the learning economy when compared to the full-information case, and the difference between the subjective risk-prices of learning and non-learning agents is shown to be counter-cyclical. The agent facing parameter uncertainty choose state variables that are sufficient statistics of the learning problems and, conditional on her information set, forms posterior distributions of the states and future consumption growth. To reduce the complexity of optimization, I present a novel numerical approach that approximates the agent's continuation-value by nesting the solutions of problems with different information sets.
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262039370
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Tony Berrada
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Stefan Nagel
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691218714
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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Book Description
A groundbreaking, authoritative introduction to how machine learning can be applied to asset pricing Investors in financial markets are faced with an abundance of potentially value-relevant information from a wide variety of different sources. In such data-rich, high-dimensional environments, techniques from the rapidly advancing field of machine learning (ML) are well-suited for solving prediction problems. Accordingly, ML methods are quickly becoming part of the toolkit in asset pricing research and quantitative investing. In this book, Stefan Nagel examines the promises and challenges of ML applications in asset pricing. Asset pricing problems are substantially different from the settings for which ML tools were developed originally. To realize the potential of ML methods, they must be adapted for the specific conditions in asset pricing applications. Economic considerations, such as portfolio optimization, absence of near arbitrage, and investor learning can guide the selection and modification of ML tools. Beginning with a brief survey of basic supervised ML methods, Nagel then discusses the application of these techniques in empirical research in asset pricing and shows how they promise to advance the theoretical modeling of financial markets. Machine Learning in Asset Pricing presents the exciting possibilities of using cutting-edge methods in research on financial asset valuation.
Author: Zongming Ma
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Asset pricing has been a focal point among a broad range of financial studies. Traditional asset pricing models are encountering challenges by empirical data and sustainable compliance. For example, the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model exhibits the "volatility smile" puzzle and the role that sustainability plays in accounting for asset pricing remains controversial. Based on these observations, I raise three research questions. First, can an option valuation model with a pricing kernel that depends on market regimes address volatility smile and be consistent with observed market prices? Second, how do the Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) ratings affect asset prices across different economic sectors, firm sizes, and time horizons? Third, since the macroeconomic environment affects firms' strategies and financial performance, how do ESG ratings affect stock returns across market regimes? I address these questions in three essays. The first essay reveals that the proposed model can predict the market option prices more accurate than the alternative models (Black-Scholes-Merton, Heston-Nandi, Hardy) do for both the in-sample and out-of-sample data across regimes. The second essay finds that ESG ratings have a positive effect on stock returns, particularly for sensitive industries (gas, oil, chemical, mining, alcohol, and tobacco, etc.), for large capitalization firms, and for long-term investment horizons. The third essay uses a machine learning method to identify market regime using 134 macroeconomic factors and a factor model to discover a positive relationship between ESG and asset returns in the bear regime. The factor model also show that the impact of ESG rating on stock returns in a sector, given a market regime, depends significantly on the level of demand in that sector under that market regime.
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691243247
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 585
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Book Description
A comprehensive account of how government deficits and debt drive inflation Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates. John Cochrane aims to make fiscal theory useful as a conceptual framework and modeling tool, and for analyzing history and policy. He merges fiscal theory with standard models in which central banks set interest rates, giving a novel account of monetary policy. He generalizes the theory to explain data and make realistic predictions. For example, inflation decreases in recessions despite deficits because discount rates fall, raising the value of debt; specifying that governments promise to partially repay debt avoids classic puzzles and allows the theory to apply at all times, not just during periods of high inflation. Cochrane offers an extensive rethinking of monetary doctrines and institutions through the eyes of fiscal theory, and analyzes the era of zero interest rates and post-pandemic inflation. Filled with research by Cochrane and others, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level offers important new insights about fiscal and monetary policy.
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226092127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
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Book Description
Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Author: Ravi Bansal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Assets (Accounting)
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
We provide an empirical evaluation of the forward-looking long-run risks (LRR) model and highlight model differences with the backward-looking habit based asset pricing model. We feature three key results: (i) Consistent with the LRR model, there is considerable evidence in the data of time-varying expected consumption growth and volatility, (ii) The LRR model matches the key asset markets data features, (iii) In the data and in the LRR model accordingly, past consumption growth does not predict future asset prices, whereas lagged consumption in the habit model forecasts future price-dividend ratios with an R2 of over 40%. Overall, our evidence implies that the LRR model provides a coherent framework to analyze and interpret asset prices.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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