Population, Economic, and Land Use Forecast Techniques PDF Download
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Author: Illinois. Division of Highways. Bureau of Planning
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Illinois
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
Author: Illinois. Division of Highways. Bureau of Planning
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Illinois
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Henry Van Beuren Stanbery
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Population forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Author: Brian Field
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351062484
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 227
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Book Description
Originally published in 1987, Forecasting Techniques for Urban and Regional Planning is an introduction to the various analytical techniques which have been developed and applied in urban and regional analysis in planning practice. The subjects covered are population, housing, employment, transport, shopping, recreation, and integrated forecasting. Each technique, placed in the context of policy formulation and political matters, is presented both verbally and mathematically, and it separating characteristic is illustrated with detailed but simple practical examples. The techniques examined are set in a policy context and their practical limitations are identified.
Author: Van Buren Stanbery
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Population forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Author: Stanley K. Smith
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400775512
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 417
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Book Description
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Author: Andrew M. Isserman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400949804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
Population change and population forecasts are receiving considerable attention from governmental planners and policy-makers, as well as from the private sector. Old patterns of population redistribution, industrial location, labor-force participation, household formation, and fertility are changing. The resulting uncertainty has increased interest in forecasting because mere extrapolations of past trends are proving inadequate. In the United States of America popUlation forecasts received even more attention after federal agencies began distributing funds for capital infrastructure to state and local governments on the basis of projected future populations. If the national government had based those funding decisions on locally prepared projections, the optimism of local officials would have resulted in billions of dollars worth of excess capacity in sewage treatment plants alone. Cabinet-level inquiries concluded that the U. S. Department of Commerce should (1) assume the responsibility for developing a single set of projections for use whenever future population was a consideration in federal spending decisions and (2) develop methods which incorporate both economic and demographic factors causing population change. Neither the projections prepared by economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis nor those prepared by demographers at the Bureau of the Census were considered satisfactory because neither method adequately recognized the intertwined nature of demographic and economic change. Against this background, the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the U. S.
Author: Stanley K. Smith
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 456
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Book Description
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques within each of three classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of technological and methodological changes affecting the production of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another and for interpolating between two projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Author: Robert Wacker Paterson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309172020
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
