Policy Uncertainty and Analyst Performance PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Policy Uncertainty and Analyst Performance PDF full book. Access full book title Policy Uncertainty and Analyst Performance by Vishal P. Baloria. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Vishal P. Baloria
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Get Book Here
Book Description
Motivated by recent high-profile instances of policy uncertainty in the U.S., this study examines whether policy uncertainty affects the forecasting performance of financial analysts. We conjecture that policy uncertainty increases the complexity of the forecasting task for analysts, resulting in less accurate earnings forecasts. We find robust evidence that forecast accuracy decreases in the presence of policy uncertainty. We also document that the negative association between forecast accuracy and policy uncertainty is more pronounced when policy uncertainty is particularly high and when firms are more sensitive to policy uncertainty. Given the importance of the intermediation role played by financial analysts, these findings have implications for understanding factors that affect information dissemination in capital markets.
Author: Vishal P. Baloria
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Get Book Here
Book Description
Motivated by recent high-profile instances of policy uncertainty in the U.S., this study examines whether policy uncertainty affects the forecasting performance of financial analysts. We conjecture that policy uncertainty increases the complexity of the forecasting task for analysts, resulting in less accurate earnings forecasts. We find robust evidence that forecast accuracy decreases in the presence of policy uncertainty. We also document that the negative association between forecast accuracy and policy uncertainty is more pronounced when policy uncertainty is particularly high and when firms are more sensitive to policy uncertainty. Given the importance of the intermediation role played by financial analysts, these findings have implications for understanding factors that affect information dissemination in capital markets.
Author: Timothy F. Geithner
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 0804138605
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 610
Get Book Here
Book Description
New York Times Bestseller Washington Post Bestseller Los Angeles Times Bestseller Stress Test is the story of Tim Geithner’s education in financial crises. As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then as President Barack Obama’s secretary of the Treasury, Timothy F. Geithner helped the United States navigate the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, from boom to bust to rescue to recovery. In a candid, riveting, and historically illuminating memoir, he takes readers behind the scenes of the crisis, explaining the hard choices and politically unpalatable decisions he made to repair a broken financial system and prevent the collapse of the Main Street economy. This is the inside story of how a small group of policy makers—in a thick fog of uncertainty, with unimaginably high stakes—helped avoid a second depression but lost the American people doing it. Stress Test is also a valuable guide to how governments can better manage financial crises, because this one won’t be the last. Stress Test reveals a side of Secretary Geithner the public has never seen, starting with his childhood as an American abroad. He recounts his early days as a young Treasury official helping to fight the international financial crises of the 1990s, then describes what he saw, what he did, and what he missed at the New York Fed before the Wall Street boom went bust. He takes readers inside the room as the crisis began, intensified, and burned out of control, discussing the most controversial episodes of his tenures at the New York Fed and the Treasury, including the rescue of Bear Stearns; the harrowing weekend when Lehman Brothers failed; the searing crucible of the AIG rescue as well as the furor over the firm’s lavish bonuses; the battles inside the Obama administration over his widely criticized but ultimately successful plan to end the crisis; and the bracing fight for the most sweeping financial reforms in more than seventy years. Secretary Geithner also describes the aftershocks of the crisis, including the administration’s efforts to address high unemployment, a series of brutal political battles over deficits and debt, and the drama over Europe’s repeated flirtations with the economic abyss. Secretary Geithner is not a politician, but he has things to say about politics—the silliness, the nastiness, the toll it took on his family. But in the end, Stress Test is a hopeful story about public service. In this revealing memoir, Tim Geithner explains how America withstood the ultimate stress test of its political and financial systems.
Author: Inessa Love
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Bank loans
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
"The authors study the effect of financial crises on trade credit in a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. They find that although provision of trade credit increases right after the crisis, it consequently collapses in the following months and years. The authors observe that firms with weaker financial position (for example, high pre-crisis level of short-term debt and low cash stocks and cash flows) are more likely to reduce trade credit provided to their customers. This suggests that the decline in aggregate credit provision is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit, which follows the bank credit crunch. The results are consistent with the "redistribution view" of trade credit provision, in which bank credit is redistributed by way of trade credit by the firms with stronger financial position to the firms with weaker financial stand "--World Bank web site.
Author: Jack Alexander
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119491487
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 647
Get Book Here
Book Description
Critical insights for savvy financial analysts Financial Planning & Analysis and Performance Management is the essential desk reference for CFOs, FP&A professionals, investment banking professionals, and equity research analysts. With thought-provoking discussion and refreshing perspective, this book provides insightful reference for critical areas that directly impact an organization’s effectiveness. From budgeting and forecasting, analysis, and performance management, to financial communication, metrics, and benchmarking, these insights delve into the cornerstones of business and value drivers. Dashboards, graphs, and other visual aids illustrate complex concepts and provide reference at a glance, while the author’s experience as a CFO, educator, and general manager leads to comprehensive and practical analytical techniques for real world application. Financial analysts are under constant pressure to perform at higher and higher levels within the realm of this consistently challenging function. Though areas ripe for improvement abound, true resources are scarce—until now. This book provides real-world guidance for analysts ready to: Assess performance of FP&A function and develop improvement program Improve planning and forecasting with new and provocative thinking Step up your game with leading edge analytical tools and practical solutions Plan, analyze and improve critical business and value drivers Build analytical capability and effective presentation of financial information Effectively evaluate capital investments in uncertain times The most effective analysts are those who are constantly striving for improvement, always seeking new solutions, and forever in pursuit of enlightening resources with real, useful information. Packed with examples, practical solutions, models, and novel approaches, Financial Planning & Analysis and Performance Management is an invaluable addition to the analyst’s professional library. Access to a website with many of the tools introduced are included with the purchase of the book.
Author: Uptal Bhattacharya
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789616430258
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Xun Lei
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 65
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper studies how the Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) new measure capturing economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is related to stock market performance in the United States. We use a variety of methods to estimate different specifications. We find that an increase in the EPU index negatively affects the S&P500 returns and raises its implied volatility. However, there is no evidence to support that an increase in the EPU has a significant influence on dividend growth. Furthermore, the component of the EPU that has the strongest explanatory power is that based on newspaper coverage of policy uncertainty, while the other three components lack statistical significance. These findings suggest that the news information is an economically important risk factor for a financial market. This study also provides some further discussion on characteristics portfolio and predictability of cash flow and discount rate. Governments should try to maintain policy stability and sustainability, so that investors can make reasonable predictions about policy changes and arrange their investment planning accordingly. Moreover, investors should also pay attention to expectations of policy change and adjust their portfolios based on policy uncertainty exposure.
Author: Ms.Elif C Arbatli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484302362
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
Get Book Here
Book Description
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Author: Carl Patton
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317350006
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 481
Get Book Here
Book Description
Updated in its 3rd edition, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning presents quickly applied methods for analyzing and resolving planning and policy issues at state, regional, and urban levels. Divided into two parts, Methods which presents quick methods in nine chapters and is organized around the steps in the policy analysis process, and Cases which presents seven policy cases, ranging in degree of complexity, the text provides readers with the resources they need for effective policy planning and analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methods are systematically combined to address policy dilemmas and urban planning problems. Readers and analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public policy.
Author: Sandile Hlatshwayo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 157
Get Book Here
Book Description
In recent years, the ubiquitous and intensifying nature of economic policy uncertainty has made it a popular explanation for weak economic performance in developed and developing markets alike. The primary channel for this effect is decreased and delayed investment as firms adopt a ``wait and see'' approach to irreversible investments (Bernanke, 1983; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). Deep empirical examination of policy uncertainty's impact is rare because of the difficulty associated in measuring its magnitude and changes over time. In this dissertation, I leverage the recent advent of global news aggregators to directly identify and measure policy uncertainty shocks based on ``news chatter'' in the press. Unlike previously used measures of economic uncertainty (e.g., strike days or exchange rate volatility), ``news chatter'' uncertainty indices pick up economic volatility as well as the threat or anticipation of volatility stemming from policy uncertainty, whether or not it comes to fruition. The more holistic character of such measures allows for a more nuanced examination of uncertainty's impact on firm decisions and outcomes. After constructing novel measures of policy uncertainty, I then explore how they translate into economic outcomes that extend beyond the traditional investment channel. In Chapter 1, I offer new insights into the channels policy uncertainty operates through by constructing a novel and rich dataset of type-specific policy uncertainty indices and leveraging previously unexamined variation in firm-level exposure to external markets to create firm-specific measures of policy uncertainty. Specifically, I exploit variation in firms' exposure to external markets to construct a firm-level measure of policy uncertainty. The approach both highlights a new channel for policy uncertainty and allows for stronger causal identification of the effects of policy uncertainty on economic performance. As part of this effort, I refine prior approaches to measuring policy uncertainty and distinguish between generic, fiscal, monetary, and trade policy uncertainty. I find that firms with greater exposure to external markets tend to experience larger declines in investment, sales, profits, and employment when fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty increase. Unexpectedly, increases in trade policy uncertainty appear to have a positive impact on exports for exposed firms. Both sets of findings can be rationalized in a standard model of firm investment under uncertainty. In particular, I present evidence that exposed firms may perceive increased uncertainty around trade agreement negotiations as a signal that negative outcomes are less likely in the near-term, incentivizing immediate investments. Historically, exchange rate depreciation makes a country's exports more competitive and cheaper, increasing its exports. Since the end of the Great Recession, many countries have seen this relationship weaken. In Chapter 2, I advance policy uncertainty as a new explanation for such dilutions in the relationship between exchange rates and export performance. Using South Africa as a case study, I find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. In Chapter 3, I examine a more extreme version of policy uncertainty--regime uncertainty. In 2010, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an indictment against six of Kenya's foremost leaders for crimes against humanity related to 2008 post-election violence. I find strong evidence that firms connected to the accused experienced declines in valuations during ICC shocks, with particularly negative revaluations for firms with highly public links to the accused. The results suggest that the negative effects of regime uncertainty outweighed any positive ``rule of law'' shock that the ICC's intervention might have provided to firms. Together the studies provide new insights on the connections between policy uncertainty and weak aggregate economic performance. In addition to offering more nuance for policy directives, the results will help discipline future theoretical efforts to more accurately model complex dynamics in modern open economies.
Author: Robert K. Wysocki
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470910682
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 257
Get Book Here
Book Description
A breakthrough game plan illustrating the need for better collaboration between Project Managers and Business Analysts In The Business Analyst/Project Manager, author Robert Wysocki draws on his forty-five years of professional experience as a PM/BA to shed light on the similarities and differences of the roles and responsibilities of these two positions, the need for greater collaboration, and how to staff a project with one or both of these professionals. Examines the boundaries and interactions between the BA and the PM Looks at how to identify the skill sets needed to make the project a success The typical relationship of the BA and PM across the project management life cycle Making the best configuration of leadership assignments based on project characteristics Where the responsibilities of the BA leave off and the PM's begins and where the two have collaborative responsibilities How to use a PM/BA to enhance project performance How to foster a "dual career path" for PM/BAs development The in-depth discussion of the synergies between the two roles and the advantages of a combined PM/BA makes The Business Analyst/Project Manager a valuable contribution in your ability to be successful on the complex projects of the 21st century.
