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Author: Lars E. O. Svensson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Anti-inflationary policies
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
"The optimal policy response to a low-probability extreme event is examined. A simple policy problem is solved for a sequence of different loss functions: quadratic, combined quadratic/absolute-deviation, absolute-deviation, combined quadratic/constant, and perfectionist. The paper shows that, under some simplifying assumptions, each of these loss functions puts less weight on a low-probability extreme event than the previous one, down to the quadratic/constant and perfectionist loss functions, which completely ignores the low-probability extreme event. The case when the size of the extreme shock is endogenous and depends on the policy is also examined. This introduces an additional effect on the optimal policy except for the combined quadratic/constant and the perfectionist loss functions"--NBER website
Author: Lars E. O. Svensson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Anti-inflationary policies
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
"The optimal policy response to a low-probability extreme event is examined. A simple policy problem is solved for a sequence of different loss functions: quadratic, combined quadratic/absolute-deviation, absolute-deviation, combined quadratic/constant, and perfectionist. The paper shows that, under some simplifying assumptions, each of these loss functions puts less weight on a low-probability extreme event than the previous one, down to the quadratic/constant and perfectionist loss functions, which completely ignores the low-probability extreme event. The case when the size of the extreme shock is endogenous and depends on the policy is also examined. This introduces an additional effect on the optimal policy except for the combined quadratic/constant and the perfectionist loss functions"--NBER website
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309278562
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Author: Agnes Benassy-Quere
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019091212X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 705
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Book Description
Economic Policy provides a unique combination of facts-based analysis, state-of-the art economic theory, and insights from first-hand policy experience at the national and international levels to shed light on current domestic and international policy challenges. It is ideally suited for students, practitioners, and scholars seeking understanding both of the pragmatic constraints of real-world policy making and the analytical tools that enhance inquiry and inform debates. The authors draw on their experiences as academics and as policy makers in European and international institutions to offer a deep dive into the rationale, design, and implementation of economic policy across a range of policy domains: fiscal policy, monetary policy, international finance, financial stability, taxes, long-term growth and inequality. Highlighting the ways experience, theories, and institutions interact, each chapter starts with historical examples of dilemmas and shows how theoretical approaches can help policy makers understand what is at stake and identify solutions. The authors highlight the differences between the positive approach to economic policy (how do policies impact the economy), the normative approach (what should be policymakers' objectives and against which criteria should their action be judged), and the political-economy constraints (what are the limits and obstacles to public intervention). They rely on the most recent academic research, providing technical boxes while explaining the mechanisms in plain English in the text, with appropriate illustrations. This new edition is informed by such important recent developments as the Great Recession, the strains on the European Union and the Euro, the challenges of public and private debt, the successes and setbacks to emerging markets, changes to labor markets along with the increased attention to inequality, the debates on secular stagnation and its implications for conventional and unconventional monetary policy, the re-regulation of the financial sector, the debt overhang in both the public and the private sector.
Author: Mr.Julio Escolano
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475529848
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
In the paper we show that, most of the time, smooth reduction in the debt ratio is optimal for tax-smoothing purposes when fiscal risks are asymmetric, with large debt-augmenting shocks more likely than commensurate debt reducing shocks. Asymmetric risks are a feature of 200 years of data for the U.S. and the U.K.: rare but recurrent large surges of the debt-to-GDP ratio, followed by very gradual but persistent declines over long periods. More informal evidence from many other countries suggests that asymmetry is a general feature of fiscal shocks. The gradual smooth reduction in the public debt to GDP ratio is not a response to past developments. Instead it is optimal given recurrent fiscal risks and the empirical characteristics of fiscal shocks. The behavior of the debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.K. and the U.S. seems roughly compatible with the prescriptions of the tax-smoothing model.
Author: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Publisher:
ISBN: 0195322738
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 724
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Book Description
This book is an English language version of Politique économique, previously published in French by De Boeck & Larcier. It fills a major gap by presenting stylized facts and key questions for modern economic policy together with the essential theoretical tools in major policy fields: fiscal policy, monetary policy, international finance, tax policy, and long-term growth. The causes and lessons of the financial crisis are addressed comprehensively.
Author: Edilio Valentini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic book
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Bernice Lee
Publisher: Chatham House (Formerly Riia)
ISBN: 9781862032538
Category : Emergency communication systems
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The frequency of "high-impact, low-probability" (HILP) events in the last decade--such as Hurricane Katrina, the T hoku earthquake and tsunami, and major floods in Pakistan and Thailand--signals the emergence of a new "normal." In a world of globalized production and optimized supply chains, the impacts of HILP events spread rapidly and are felt on an international scale. This report examines the effects of the volcanic ash cloud that spread across Europe in April 2010 and draws lessons for other HILP events. It considers whether governments and the private sector are sufficiently prepared, how the global economy could be made more resilient, and the role of communications in a crisis."
Author: Fabio Biondini
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000997308
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 6293
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Book Description
Life-Cycle of Structures and Infrastructure Systems contains the lectures and papers presented at IALCCE 2023- The Eighth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, held at Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy, 2-6 July, 2023. This book contains the full papers of 514 contributions presented at IALCCE 2023, including the Fazlur R. Khan Plenary Lecture, nine Keynote Lectures, and 504 technical papers from 45 countries. The papers cover recent advances and cutting-edge research in the field of life-cycle civil engineering, including emerging concepts and innovative applications related to life-cycle design, assessment, inspection, monitoring, repair, maintenance, rehabilitation, and management of structures and infrastructure systems under uncertainty. Major topics covered include life-cycle safety, reliability, risk, resilience and sustainability, life-cycle damaging processes, life-cycle design and assessment, life-cycle inspection and monitoring, life-cycle maintenance and management, life-cycle performance of special structures, life-cycle cost of structures and infrastructure systems, and life-cycle-oriented computational tools, among others. This Open Access Book provides both an up-to-date overview of the field of life-cycle civil engineering and significant contributions to the process of making more rational decisions to mitigate the life-cycle risk and improve the life-cycle reliability, resilience, and sustainability of structures and infrastructure systems exposed to multiple natural and human-made hazards in a changing climate. It will serve as a valuable reference to all concerned with life-cycle of civil engineering systems, including students, researchers, practicioners, consultants, contractors, decision makers, and representatives of managing bodies and public authorities from all branches of civil engineering.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic stabilization
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111901798X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 714
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Book Description
Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.
