Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia PDF full book. Access full book title Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia by International Monetary Fund. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475514247
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475514247
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.
Author: Nodir Djanibekov
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783959921275
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Despite initial concerns of catastrophic outcomes, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdown measures did not severely affect regional agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus. They did, however, affect food supply chains in terms of demand and logistics. Food prices were volatile throughout 2020 and particularly high in countries with currency depreciation. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic as a human and health crisis presents an ever increasing risk to the economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus. The global implications of the pandemic, combined with a decline in oil and gas exports and migrant remittances, could impede recovery and undermine economic stability in the region. Policymakers should avoid disrupting domestic food supply chains and placing barriers to trade through export bans and quotas. At the same time, they must ensure food security and reduced price volatility through diversified trade networks. Deeper domestic value chains and efficient management of public and private food stock reserves will better prepare countries to face the continuing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Better-informed and targeted policy responses to a pandemic require improved national systems of nutrition research and monitoring, and timely availability of data not only relating to production but also to other levels of the agrifood chain.
Author: Djanibekov, N., Herzfeld, T.
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 9251351759
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 104
Get Book Here
Book Description
This report contributes to the project ‘Securing agriculture and rural development in times of COVID-19, pathways to regional responses for recovery, reforms, and resilience’ by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The objectives of the report are threefold: 1) to assess the multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture, food security, and rural community; 2) to review the policy responses taken by the governments of eight Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) countries to mitigate the effects of the crisis, and 3) to provide contextual options to build the resilience of the agricultural sector during post-COVID-19 recovery and against future shocks.
Author: Weltbank
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the channels through which rising commodity prices might affect countries in the Europe and Central Asia Region (ECA) in the short run and to indicate which countries are most likely to be significantly affected. This paper discusses the effects of the global food and energy price increases on ECA countries from two perspectives: (a) impacts on the macro-economy through inflation, the trade balance, fiscal accounts and growth; and (b) distributional impacts within countries. It aims to highlight vulnerabilities to rising commodity prices and discusses some policy interventions to mitigate the impact of rising prices. It puts the ECA experience in the context of the last commodity price increase as well the recent global economic crisis. Section one summarizes the state of global commodity markets. Section two discusses the main macroeconomic channels through which commodity price increases affect the economy. Section three discusses the potential poverty impacts of the price increases and the ability of countries' social assistance systems to deal with the heightened need for social assistance. It also discusses country responses to the crisis to date with reference to policies followed during the 2008 price hikes. Section four examines ECA's agriculture sector and potential responses to the commodity price increase and price volatility. Section five discusses the energy sector. Bank support to ECA countries to help deal with commodity market a development is discussed in annexes one.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
Get Book Here
Book Description
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
Author: World Bank
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the channels through which rising commodity prices might affect countries in the Europe and Central Asia Region (ECA) in the short run and to indicate which countries are most likely to be significantly affected. This paper discusses the effects of the global food and energy price increases on ECA countries from two perspectives: (a) impacts on the macro-economy through inflation, the trade balance, fiscal accounts and growth; and (b) distributional impacts within countries. It aims to highlight vulnerabilities to rising commodity prices and discusses some policy interventions to mitigate the impact of rising prices. It puts the ECA experience in the context of the last commodity price increase as well the recent global economic crisis. Section one summarizes the state of global commodity markets. Section two discusses the main macroeconomic channels through which commodity price increases affect the economy. Section three discusses the potential poverty impacts of the price increases and the ability of countries' social assistance systems to deal with the heightened need for social assistance. It also discusses country responses to the crisis to date with reference to policies followed during the 2008 price hikes. Section four examines ECA's agriculture sector and potential responses to the commodity price increase and price volatility. Section five discusses the energy sector. Bank support to ECA countries to help deal with commodity market a development is discussed in annexes one.
Author: Sadiq Ahmed
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
The surge in global commodity prices of the past few years has presented a tremendous development challenge for South Asian countries. The large loss of income from the terms of trade shock has worsened macroeconomic balances, fueled rapid inflation, and hurt growth. Although commodity prices have come down recently, the benefits are being clouded by the emergence of a severe global financial crisis. The adverse consequences of the food price hike for the poor are large; the global financial crisis could further worsen the situation due to falling economic opportunities and government revenues. South Asian countries need to accelerate reforms to avoid facing a serious downturn in economic activity, investment, exports, and income. Governments in South Asia have responded by stabilizing domestic food prices through a number of short-term measures, tightened monetary policy to reduce inflation, and increased spending on a range of safety net programs for the poor. Some of the policies employed, such as export bans, are not consistent with the long-term welfare of the country or the region. Safety net interventions need to be made consistent with a longer-term poverty reduction strategy and fiscal sustainability. Most importantly, policy attention now needs to shift toward efforts to increase farm productivity, improve rural infrastructure, and lower the vulnerability of the poor.
Author: Mr.Marco Airaudo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475523165
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
Get Book Here
Book Description
We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: Christopher B. Barrett
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191668702
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 510
Get Book Here
Book Description
Global food price spikes in 2008 and again in 2011 coincided with a surge of political unrest in low- and middle-income countries. Angry consumers took to the streets in scores of nations. In some places, food riots turned violent, pressuring governments and in a few cases contributed to their overthrow. Foreign investors sparked a new global land rush, adding a different set of pressures. With scientists cautioning that the world has entered a new era of steadily rising food prices, perhaps aggravated by climate change, the specter of widespread food insecurity and sociopolitical instability weighs on policymakers worldwide. In the past few years, governments and philanthropic foundations began redoubling efforts to resuscitate agricultural research and technology transfer, as well as to accelerate the modernization of food value chains to deliver high quality food inexpensively, faster, and in greater volumes to urban consumers. But will these efforts suffice? This volume explores the complex relationship between food security and sociopolitical stability up to roughly 2025. Organized around a series of original essays by leading global technical experts, a key message of this volume is that actions taken in an effort to address food security stressors may have consequences for food security, stability, or both that ultimately matter far more than the direct impacts of biophysical drivers such as climate or land or water scarcity. The means by which governments, firms, and private philanthropies tackle the food security challenge of the coming decade will fundamentally shape the relationship between food security and sociopolitical stability.
