Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency PDF Download
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Author: Chyi Lin Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Sequin (1992) and the Gray's (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and qualify of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naive and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64%.
Author: Chyi Lin Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Sequin (1992) and the Gray's (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and qualify of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naive and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64%.
Author: Shen Cao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Gold, silver, and copper futures market efficiency is examined by looking at whether futures contract prices contain useful information about future spot prices. The Fama and French (1987) regression approach is applied to test whether the futures price has forecast power on the spot price or if it contains information about the premium to be realized at maturity. The result suggests that the futures price of gold has some forecast power while the futures price of copper contains information about the time-varying premium. Unit root and co-integration analysis indicates that futures prices and spot prices of gold, silver, and copper are co-integrated at 95% confidence level. This means that the futures contract prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices. Thus, the efficiency of the gold, silver, and copper futures markets is supported. The univariate GARCH test finds evidence of conditional time-varying volatility for both futures and spot series. Also, positive asymmetry where positive price shocks are associated with greater volatility increases than negative price shocks is revealed. As the gold, silver and copper futures contract series and spot series are almost perfectly correlated, naïve or 1-1 hedging reduces almost all of the variance and realizes high hedging effectiveness. The strong correlation of futures and spot returns supports the hypothesis that futures markets are efficient. Keywords: futures; market efficiency; GARCH; hedge effectiveness.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commodity exchanges
Languages : en
Pages : 1314
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Book Description
Author: Barry Goss
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135639361
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 187
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Book Description
This volume presents an entirely new analysis of the economics of futures markets, that will be of interest to both specialists in the area and the generalist economist seeking a new perspective. Through a combination of theoretical investigation and empirical application, three important themes are explored: the gains from futures trading and the efforts of emerging markets to reap these benefits; rationality and rival hypotheses of trader behaviour, such as noise trading; and the effect of regulatory tools on price formation.
Author: Hun Y. Park
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Prices
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
This paper compares the volatility of spot prices (dealership market) with that of futures prices (auction market) to test the implications of different trading mechanisms for the volatility of prices. First, a natural estimator of the volatility is sued. Using the intraday data of the major Market Index and its futures prices, we show that the volatility of opening prices is higher than that of closing prices not only in the spot market but in the futures market, and that the intraday volatility patterns are U-shaped in both markets. Of particular interest is that futures prices do not appear to be as volatile as spot prices when the natural estimator of volatility is used, to the contrary of the conventional wisdom. We argue that the different volatility patterns during the day are not necessarily due to the different trading mechanisms, auction market versus dealership market. Instead, after developing a simple theoretical model of speculative prices, we show that at least part of the different volatility patterns during the day may be attributable to speculative behavior of investors based on heterogeneous information. In addition, we further investigate the volatilities of spot and futures prices using a temporal estimator of price volatility as an alternative to the natural estimator. Based on the temporal estimator, we cannot find any systematic pattern of volatilities during the day in both spot and futures markets, and that futures prices appear to be more volatile than spot prices in terms of how quickly the price moves beyond a given unit price level, but not in terms of how much the price changes during a given unit time interval. Some policy implications are also discussed.
Author: Joseph M. Burns
Publisher: Studies in Economic Policy
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Author: Malcolm L. Edey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial futures
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
Author: Wale Dare
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We propose a non-parametric procedure for estimating the realized spot volatility of a price process described by an Itô semimartingale with Lévy jumps. The procedure integrates threshold jump elimination technique of Mancini (2009) with a frame (Gabor) expansion of the realized trajectory of spot volatility. We show that the procedure converges in probability in L2([0; T]) for a wide class of spot volatility processes, including those with discontinuous paths. Our analysis assumes the time interval between price observations tends to zero; as a result, the intended application is for the analysis of high frequency financial data. We investigate practical tests of market efficiency that are not subject to the joint-hypothesis problem inherent in tests that require the specification of an equilibrium model of asset prices. The methodology we propose simplify the testing procedure considerably by reframing the market efficiency question into one about the existence of a local martingale measure. As a consequence, the need to directly verify the no dominance condition is completely avoided. We also investigate market efficiency in the large financial market setting with the introduction of notions of asymptotic no dominance and market efficiency that remain consistent with the small market theory. We obtain a change of numeraire characterization of asymptotic market efficiency and suggest empirical tests of inefficiency in large financial markets. We argue empirically that the U.S. treasury futures market is informational inefficient. We show that an intraday strategy based on the assumption of cointegrated treasury futures prices earns statistically significant excess return over the equally weighted portfolio of treasury futures. We also provide empirical backing for the claim that the same strategy, financed by taking a short position in the 2-Year treasury futures contract, gives rise to a statistical arbitrage.
Author: Hendrik Bessembinder
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Futures
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Lucy F. Ackert
Publisher: South Western Educational Publishing
ISBN: 9780538752862
Category : Investments
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The book begins by building upon the established, conventional principles of finance that you've have already learned in your principles course. The authors then move into psychological principles of behavioral finance, including heuristics and biases, overconfidence, emotion and social forces. You immediately see how human behavior influences the decisions of individual investors and professional finance practitioners, managers, and markets. You also gain a strong understanding of how social forces impact individuals' choices. The book clearly explains what behavioral finance indicates about observed market outcomes as well as how psychological biases potentially impact the behavior of managers. The book's solid academic approach provides opportunities for you to utilize theory and complete applications in every chapter as you learn the implications of behavioral finance on retirement, pensions, education, debiasing, and client management. The book spends a significant amount of time examining how today's practitioners can use behavioral finance to further their professional success.
