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Author: Sherman J. Maisel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 551
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Book Description
Author: Sherman J. Maisel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 551
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Book Description
Author: Edward J. Chambers
Publisher: Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentic-Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 674
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Book Description
Economic Fluctuations: Their Nature: Forty Years of Business-Cycle History; The Theory of Cyclical Fluctuations; Economic Forecasting; Economic Stabilization.
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226978923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 613
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Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author: Vincent Su
Publisher: Addison-Wesley
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 616
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Book Description
By explaining how, by how much, and why economics fluctuate during different stages of the business cycle, this work teaches students how to use, interpret and make macroeconomic forecasts while showing them the advantages and shortcomings of various forecasting methods. The book reviews the procedures used to construct econometric models and their general applications such as sensitivity studies and policy simulations with an emphasis on empirical evidence. It also examines the important role of macroeconomic data in economic fluctuations and forecasting, as well as the part played historically by business cycles in the US and the different theories that explain these cycles.
Author: Michael P. Niemira
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471845442
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545
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Book Description
Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability—ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles—including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool Regional business cycles—including a survey of regional indicators International business cycles—with an international business cycle chronology Inflation cycles—plus "12 little-known facts" about this complex cycle Financial cycles—covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles Stock market cycles—with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making—and profit margin—depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." —Samuel D. Kahan, Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle." —Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., Economics Editor, The Wall Street,Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." —Anthony F. Herbst, Professor of Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." —Victor Zarnowitz, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago
Author: Elena Ianchovichina
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Crecimiento economico
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Book Description
"The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively. "--World Bank web site.
Author: Elia Kacapyr
Publisher: M.E. Sharpe
ISBN: 9781563247644
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
Future Prospects -- Summary -- Notes -- References -- Bibliography -- Index -- About the Author
Author: Maurice Wentworth Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 664
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Book Description
First published in 1955 under title: Economic fluctuations. Includes bibliographical references.
Author: Khurshid M. Kiani
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 134
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Book Description
This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.
Author: Dale G. Bails
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 626
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Book Description
This book is pragmatic in nature. Students must become well acquainted with the broad institutional environment surrounding the business sector, that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by repeated exposure to real (as opposed to contrived) forecasting models, and that techniques and applications must accurately reflect the process of forecasting as actually carried out in the business community. The book is accompanied by an Instructor's Manual.
