Does Consumer Sentiment Affect Household Spending? If So, Why? PDF Download
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Author: Christopher D. Carroll
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumers
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Author: Christopher D. Carroll
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumers
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Author: Andy C. C. Kwan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer confidence
Languages : en
Pages : 11
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Author: Jason Bram
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
This article is the first formal investigation of consumer attitudes that compares the forecasting power of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. The authors find that measures available from the Conference Board have both economically and statistically significant explanatory power for several categories of consumer spending. By contrast, measures available from the University of Michigan generally exhibit weaker forecasting power for most categories of spending. As part of their analysis, the authors examine the ways in which the surveys underlying these measures differ and test whether certain types of survey questions are particularly important for predicting consumer spending.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Christian Gillitzer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
This paper seeks to identify the effect of consumer sentiment on consumption. Using Australian consumer sentiment data, which is unique in asking individuals about their political preferences, we show that consumers report substantially higher levels of sentiment when their self-identified political party holds office at a federal level compared to those who support the opposition party. The relative change in sentiment occurs precisely at elections which result in a change of government, and is sustained for the entire period each party holds office. To determine whether changes in sentiment affect consumption, we match postcode-level vote-share data to new car sales to households. Using data from two elections which saw a change of government, we find that car sales to households increased relatively more in postcodes with a higher share of voters for the winning party. The results are robust to a variety of economic controls. Overall our results suggest that consumer sentiment contains useful independent information about future consumption.
Author: Marco Malgarini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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The aim of the paper is to assess the role of the Italian Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) as an autonomous driving force of consumption decisions. We test for the presence of quot;rule of thumbquot; consumers as originally proposed by Cambell and Mankiw (1991), using sentiment measures distinguished by working condition of the household. Consumption data are disaggregated according to durability. The role of sentiment results to be stronger for service expenditures. Psychological motives of employees are found to have a particularly significant influence on consumption decisions. Moreover, CSI can not be explained by economic fundamentals alone, capturing also the effects of the political cycle and exceptional circumstances.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Author: Brian Cashell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer confidence
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The economic outlook is of considerable importance to policymakers. Any information that might prove helpful in forecasting the economy is thus of interest. Two economic indicators that get a lot of attention, because of their presumed value as leading indicators of economic conditions, attempt to measure the relative optimism of consumers about current economic conditions and prospects. One of these indicators is the index of consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and the other is the consumer confidence index published by the Conference Board. Both indexes are based on data collected in a monthly survey. The Michigan survey contacts 500 households by telephone. The Conference Board contacts 5,000 households by mail, of which about 3,500 typically respond. In both surveys five questions are asked, two of which have to do with current economic conditions and three of which have to do with expectations for the economic outlook. Each of the survey questions is multiple choice. While, intuitively, it makes sense that consumer attitudes would affect spending decisions, there remains uncertainty regarding the theoretical connection between the attitude indexes and spending. That makes it difficult to interpret individual observations, and short-run variations in the indexes. These indicators are not, apparently, insignificant. On their own and in concert with other economic variables they have been shown to contribute to forecasts of future consumer spending and hence of overall economic growth. But their contribution may be somewhat more modest than the attention they get would suggest. This report explains how these two indexes measuring consumer attitudes are calculated, the theoretical connection between consumer attitudes and economic growth, and examines their significance as indicators of the economic outlook. This report will be updated as economic developments warrant.
Author: John Cotsomitis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer confidence
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
