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Author: Jordan Hernandez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study uses ordinary least squares estimation to test multivariate models in order to find out whether or not crude oil price shocks are contractionary and negatively impact the macroeconomy. Variables are annual and pertain to different aspects of crude oil and how they affect real gross domestic product (GDP). It is predicted that increases in domestic and imported crude oil prices negatively affect real GDP by decreasing not only energy consumption but the consumption of other goods and services as well. It is found that the initial hypothesis is partially correct. While increases in imported oil prices do decrease real GDP, increases in domestic oil prices actually increase real GDP. Additionally, as predicted, consumption other than energy is affected by crude oil price shocks and causes real GDP to contract.
Author: Jordan Hernandez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study uses ordinary least squares estimation to test multivariate models in order to find out whether or not crude oil price shocks are contractionary and negatively impact the macroeconomy. Variables are annual and pertain to different aspects of crude oil and how they affect real gross domestic product (GDP). It is predicted that increases in domestic and imported crude oil prices negatively affect real GDP by decreasing not only energy consumption but the consumption of other goods and services as well. It is found that the initial hypothesis is partially correct. While increases in imported oil prices do decrease real GDP, increases in domestic oil prices actually increase real GDP. Additionally, as predicted, consumption other than energy is affected by crude oil price shocks and causes real GDP to contract.
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226278875
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 663
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Book Description
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Author: Tao Wu
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437935583
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: Amir Sadeghi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484336275
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author: Mark E. Hanson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Sustainable development
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Author: Kenneth Hanson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Author: Diego A. Cerdeiro
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475598424
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Energy consumption
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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