Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : China
Languages : en
Pages : 144

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 312

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Sri Lanka
Languages : en
Pages : 276

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Author: Sylwia Nowak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15

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Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.

Author: George Friedman
Publisher: Random House Digital, Inc.
ISBN: 0307475921
Category : International relations
Languages : en
Pages : 274

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George Friedman, founder of Stratfor and leading expert in geopolitical forecasting, shares his thoughts on current trends and near-future events that will impact every country on Earth.

Author: Zidong An
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513510657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.

Author: Jack A. Goldstone
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Conflict management
Languages : en
Pages : 16

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Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475576447
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43

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This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

Author: Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513573667
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57

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This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.

Author: Mary Hutzler
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 0788175742
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 218

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