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Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319782428
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 596
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Book Description
Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.
Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319782428
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 596
Get Book Here
Book Description
Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.
Author: Shailesh Shrestha
Publisher: CABI
ISBN: 1780644280
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
Agriculture is the product of a complex mixture of behavioural, biophysical and market drivers. Understanding how these factors interact to produce crops and livestock for food has been the focus of economic investigation for many years. The advent of optimisation algorithms and the exponential growth in computing technology has allowed significant growth in mathematical modelling of the dynamics of agricultural systems. The complexity of approaches has grown in parallel with the availability of data at increasingly finer resolutions. Farm-level models have been widely used in agricultural economic studies to understand how farmers and land owners respond to market and policy levers. This book provides an in-depth description of different methodologies and techniques currently used in farm-level modelling. While giving an overview of the theoretical grounding behind the models, an applied approach is also used. Case studies range from the application of modelling to policy reforms and the subsequent impacts on rural communities and food supply. This book also provides descriptions of the use of farm-level models in much wider fields such as aggregation and linking with sectoral models. Its purpose is to show the reader the methods that have been employed to inform decision-makers about how to improve the economic, social and environmental goals required to achieve the aims of multidimensional policy.
Author: Lluis M. Plà-Aragonés
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1493924834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 471
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Book Description
The scope of this book is Operations Research methods in Agriculture and a thorough discussion of derived applications in the Agri-food industry. The book summarizes current research and practice in this area and illustrates the development of useful approaches to deal with actual problems arising in the agriculture sector and the agri-food industry. This book is intended to collect in one volume high quality chapters on Methods and Applications in Agriculture and Agri-food industry considering both theoretical issues and application results. Methods applied to problems in agriculture and the agri-food industry include, but are not restricted to, the following themes: Dynamic programming Multi-criteria decision methods Markov decision processes Linear programming Stochastic programming Parameter estimation and knowledge acquisition Learning from data Simulation Descriptive and normative decision tree techniques, including: agent modelling and simulation, and state of the art surveys Each chapter includes some standard and traditional methodology but also some recent research advances. All the applications presented in the chapters have been inspired and motivated by the demands from the agriculture and food production areas.
Author: James Richard Arthur
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132
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Book Description
Risk analysis, simply put, is "science-based decision-making." An integrated approach to risk analysis will assist the aquaculture sector in reducing risks to successful operations from both internal and external hazards and can similarly contribute to protect the environment, society and other resource users from adverse and often unpredicted impacts. This leads to improved profitability and sustainability of the sector, while at the same time improving the public's perception of aquaculture as a responsible, sustainable and environmentally-friendly activity. This document presents peer-reviewed technical papers and contributions from international experts.
Author: J Brian Hardaker
Publisher: CABI
ISBN: 1780645740
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 290
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Book Description
Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of the popular textbook includes updated chapters on theory and methods and contains a new chapter discussing the state-contingent approach to the analysis of production and the use of copulas to better model stochastic dependency. Aiming to introduce agricultural decision making, probability and risk preference, this book is an indispensable guide for students and researchers of agriculture and agribusiness management.
Author: Dana L. Hoag
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439882460
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 422
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Book Description
Defining the fundamentals of building a risk management plan, Applied Risk Management in Agriculture uses strategic management to organize the process of risk management. A time-tested procedure inside and outside the business community, this technique provides an ideal platform for organizing risk.Making complex principles easily accessible to stu
Author: C. A. Brebbia
Publisher: WIT Press
ISBN: 1845644727
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 961
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Book Description
This book contains the papers presented at two conferences organized by the Wessex Institute of Technology. The first conference is the Seventh International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, being held in Algarve, Portugal, September 13-15. This biennial conference is the latest in a successful series that began in 1998 and that includes many practical applications, demonstrating how to analyze and manage risk and mitigate hazards. The applications cover man-made as well as natural hazards, the importance of which is becoming increasingly evident in our modern world. These problems have become a priority for all governments, as well as a cause for public concern. The second conference is the Fifth International Conference on Prevention, Assessment, Rehabilitation and Development of Brownfield Sites, also being held in Algarve, September 14-16. The biennial conference was first held in 2002 and covers the challenges the public and private sectors must face in seeking to reuse brownfield sites and to capitalize on the opportunities.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 322
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Book Description
Author: J.P.T.M. Noordhuizen
Publisher: BRILL
ISBN: 9086866336
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 311
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Book Description
"Quality is a keyword in animal production. Next to product quality, process quality has also become relevant for dairy farmers. Issues like food safety, public health, animal health and welfare are determined by the conditions of the production process. To address these, he EU has issued the General Food Law (178-2002) and the Hygiene directives (EC 852/853/854-2004) dealing with the forenamed domains with the aim to protect consumers. The suggestion was also made by the EU that farmers apply a HACCP-like plan to meet these new quality demands. Key issues are structure, organisation, planning, formalisation and demonstrability, which can also be found in the HACCP concept. This book addresses Quality Risk Management through applying the HACCP-like concept. First, the assessment of strong and weak points on a dairy farm are dealt with, which is useful for farm inspection and herd health programmes. Then, the 12-steps for developing a HACCP plan are followed through the various chapters. Many examples and elaborations are given. An example farm, FX, is introduced to show how the different elements may look in reality. At the end of the book characteristics of entrepreneur-like dairy farmers are given and compared to strong and weak points of cattle practitioners. Practitioners may conclude how to better serve this type of farmer. Communication plays a paramount role. Finally, several general issues are addressed: economics, integrating classical herd health with quality risk management programmes. The aim of this book is to give practical guidelines and examples for dairy farmers, cattle practitioners and extension people, who desire to jointly develop and implement a HACCP-based quality risk management programme. 'This book is well written with many practical flow charts and ""Good Practice"" advice. I would recommend it to any veterinarian involved in producing risk management programs or ""Standard Operating Procedure"" type documents for dairy farms. The chapters on good communication and marketing would be useful for most veterinarians.' David S. Beggs, book review editor 'The Australian Cattle Veterinarian' Volume 50, p. 34-35, March '09"
Author: Liz Alban
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2832536743
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 178
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Book Description
The current COVID-19 pandemic has expanded lay people’s vocabulary; PCR-testing is no longer mentioned only by virologists, nor are the terms basic reproduction ratio and herd-immunity limited to epidemiologists. This expansion of vocabulary that was previously only used in specialist settings already demonstrates global, societal impact. We have learnt that it is insufficient simply to act on disease emergence and spread. More focus is needed on prevention and surveillance of the precursors of emerging infectious disease, as well as early detection. To succeed in this, it is a necessity to collaborate across sectors – academics, governments, industry and the public – in a transdisciplinary way.
