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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : United States
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
This study analyzes the influence of pre-service experiences and initial military job match on military attrition of first-term enlisted males during their first six months of service (early attrition). The dynamics of attrition behavior are examined in terms of recent firm-specific human capital and job matching models. The determinants of early attrition are compared across services and with those of civilian job separations of young workers. Some of the conclusions drawn are: enlistees with a history of frequency civilian job changes or a recent spell of unemployment are attrition-prone; aspects of the initial military occupational assignment like individual suitability and satisfaction do not significantly influence early attrition; the early attrition rate of nonhigh-school graduates is nearly twice that of graduates even after controlling for previous work experiences, aptitude, and other variables that influence attrition; and older recruits are more attrition-prone than younger recruits.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : United States
Languages : en
Pages : 82
Get Book Here
Book Description
This study analyzes the influence of pre-service experiences and initial military job match on military attrition of first-term enlisted males during their first six months of service (early attrition). The dynamics of attrition behavior are examined in terms of recent firm-specific human capital and job matching models. The determinants of early attrition are compared across services and with those of civilian job separations of young workers. Some of the conclusions drawn are: enlistees with a history of frequency civilian job changes or a recent spell of unemployment are attrition-prone; aspects of the initial military occupational assignment like individual suitability and satisfaction do not significantly influence early attrition; the early attrition rate of nonhigh-school graduates is nearly twice that of graduates even after controlling for previous work experiences, aptitude, and other variables that influence attrition; and older recruits are more attrition-prone than younger recruits.
Author: Richard J. Buddin
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833005595
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
Analyzes the influence of preservice experiences and initial military job match on military attrition of first-term enlisted males during their first six months of service (early attrition). The dynamics of attrition behavior are examined in terms of recent firm-specific human capital and job matching models. The determinants of early attrition are compared across services and with those of civilian job separations of young workers. Some of the conclusions drawn are: enlistees with a history of frequent civilian job changes or a recent spell of unemployment are attrition-prone; aspects of the initial military occupational assignment like individual suitability and satisfaction do not significantly influence early attrition; the early attrition rate of nonhigh-school graduates is nearly twice that of graduates even after controlling for previous work experiences, aptitude, and other variables that influence attrition; and older recruits are more attrition-prone than younger recruits.
Author: John J. Antel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 86
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Book Description
This report presents a theoretical discussion and empirical analysis of enlistment and first-term attrition. The theoretical discussion gives rise to hypotheses about enlistment and attrition. The enlistment hypotheses take a supply view, treating military service as an alternative to further schooling or to work. The attrition hypotheses are inherently two-sided, considering first the value of enlistment to the individual and the likelihood that he is more prone to disappointment due to poor planning, and second, the value of the individual to the service and the chance that the service's eligibility screens were unable to identify low-productivity prospects. The empirical analysis is directed to the two prime recruiting markets from which the services draw high-quality male enlistees: high school seniors and nonstudent high school graduates. The study estimates sequential probit models for seniors and graduates separately, for both enlistment and six-month attrition and enlistment and 35-month attrition. The model produces estimates of the effect of individual characteristics on enlistment and on attrition, and controls for unobserved factors affecting both outcomes. The findings suggest that a small set of factors can reveal a wide range of attrition risk among enlistees. The factors are senior/graduate status, positive/negative education expectations, stable/unstable civilian employment history, and short/long participation in the Delayed Entry Program.
Author: James R. Hosek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : United States
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Barry E. Goodstadt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
Author: Haluk Elis
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423541639
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 149
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Book Description
His thesis analyzes causal factors associated with first-term attrition for all four military services. In particular, it seeks to identify demographic and other factors that have influenced changes in attrition over time. The thesis draws on data provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center on entry cohorts for fiscal years 1984, 1989, and 1994. Separate multivariate models are estimated for each service and each year. These models are used to implement a decomposition analysis of the changes in attrition between 1984 and 1989, between 1989 and 1994 and between 1984 and 1994. The decomposition technique analyzes the portion of the changes in attrition over these periods that is attributable to changes in the demographic composition of the entry cohorts and the portion due to changes in the estimated model coefficients. The thesis finds that sex, education, race, AFQT scores, and months spent in Delayed Entry Program consistently affect attrition behavior while the relationship between age at entry and attrition is not clear. The decomposition technique used in the thesis finds that there are generally big differences between the predicted and the actual changes in attrition and that the direction of predicted and actual change is generally in opposite directions. The thesis recommends that the role of other factors, such as service-specific policies be researched to keep attrition from further rising and that the decomposition technique be replicated for other beginning and end points.
Author: Peter Greenston
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Job analysis
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
The purpose of this research is to illuminate an important interaction between personal characteristics and organizational factors as they affect first-term attrition. This study tests the hypothesis that first-term completion is positively related to predicted performance on the job and estimates the attrition reduction that would accompany the utilization of better methods for assigning recruits to jobs so as to improve their predicted performance. The testing is conducted with the 1991 accession cohort using the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences' Enlisted Panel Research Data Base (EPRDB). Regression analysis is used to test for a relationship between attrition behavior and predicted performance on the job, holding other factors constant. This relationship is then applied to estimate the attrition reduction that could be brought about by increased soldier performance through improved job-person matching procedures such as the Enlisted Personnel Allocation System (EPAS).
Author: U S Military
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781688024540
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 108
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Book Description
For the first time since 2005, the U.S. Army fell short of its recruiting goal in 2018 by about 6,500 recruits. A strong economy and an increasing pool of recruit candidates who require a waiver to enlist add to the Army's recruitment troubles. Mental health issues, obesity, and other medical issues have become barriers that disqualify recruits from enlisting. For those who are eligible, they complete a training period called Initial Entry Training (IET). After finishing IET, many soldiers do not finish their first-term service obligation. This research continues the research conducted by Speten (2018) on post-IET attrition, with the added benefit of having medical data available in the Person-event Data Environment (PDE), a secure, virtual environment with a database that provides information on manpower, service, personnel, and medical data. Currently, no research has been conducted that uses detailed medical information to predict post-IET attrition. To estimate the expected number of soldiers who attrite at a specific time post-IET and prior to the end of their first-term obligation, we construct survival tree models using time-varying and time-constant covariates. We find several medical covariates that are important in forecasting attrition including dental readiness and hearing readiness. The effectiveness of the models is assessed on independent test sets. They perform well in predicting expected number of attrition, but not in predicting individual soldier attrition.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.For the first time in 13 years, the Army did not meet its recruiting goal (Dickstein 2018). This failure to recruit qualified personnel is especially dire in a time when threats from Russia and China continue to grow. One issue that continues to threaten the ability to recruit soldiers is the lack of a qualified pool of candidates. Criminal convictions, mental health issues, obesity, and other medical issues have become roadblocks that disqualify young recruits from enlisting. In the past, the Army has relaxed certain standards and has given waivers to enlistees for conduct, aptitude, or minor medical issues. However, in 2019, Secretary of the Army, Mark Esper, mandated that fewer less-qualified recruits that require waivers be accepted into the ranks (Myers 2018). This research identifies the demographic and medical factors that contribute to first term service obligation attrition of enlisted U.S. Army soldiers who complete Initial Entry Training (IET). We develop a predictive survival model using survival analysis to forecast the probability that a soldier will either leave the service through attrition within the first t years into their first term or will continue to serve in the Army past their initial first term obligation. The data we use is stored and analyzed in the Person-Event Data Environment (PDE). The PDE is a remote cloud computer environment where data is stored centrally and accessed safely from verified users. The remote access feature of the database ensures there are no privacy or security breaches involving personal information. The PDE contains millions of records on Department of Defense employees, military personnel, and their family members. All personally identifiable information in the database is absent and each individual is assigned a unique Person Identifier (PID).
Author: Eric A. Hawes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 90
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Book Description
This thesis is an application of survival analysis methods to study first term enlisted attrition from the Marine Corps. The data comprise over 99 percent of all enlisted accessions into the Marine Corps between 1 October 1983, and 31 August 1988. A large percentage of the observations are censored, thus motivating the use of survival analysis techniques. The enlistees are categorized by three covariates: education credential, Armed Forces Mental Group and presence/non-presence of a moral waiver. The attrition behavior of the enlistees is then examined to identify which covariate classifications are associated with premature attrition. The majority of the findings concerning the effects of the covariates on attrition are consistent with published results from previous military attrition studies. Two findings of the thesis, though, are perhaps new. First, the attrition behavior of alternate high school credential holders varied significantly according to credential type. Second, the relationship between aptitude and attrition behavior appears to have weakened in recent years. The thesis also provides an opportunity to evaluate the uncommon practice of using survival analysis methods to examine military attrition. The results are promising as the survival analysis methods prove to be both accurate and efficient. Graphical plots of survivor function estimates provide an easily understood illustration of attrition behavior. The use of log- linear regression to model military attrition shows potential as a desk-top tool for conducting informal analyses. Keywords: Military attrition, Survival analysis, Log-linear regression, Theses.
Author: Richard J. Buddin
Publisher: Minnesota Historical Society
ISBN: 9780833037329
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
This monograph examines the relationship between recruiting practices and conditions and the first-term success of Army soldiers. Success in the first term is important because recruiting soldiers is expensive. If soldiers fail to complete their first terms, the Army must recruit others to replace them, effectively doubling the cost. This monograph analyzes how current recruiting policies influence the success of first-term soldiers. It also examines how the Army manages first-term soldiers.
