China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach PDF full book. Access full book title China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach by Min Zhu. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Min Zhu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515357
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Get Book Here
Book Description
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Author: Min Zhu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515357
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Get Book Here
Book Description
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Author: Edward N. Wolff
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107651212
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 537
Get Book Here
Book Description
A vast new literature on the sources of economic growth has now accumulated. This book critically reviews the most significant works in this field and summarizes what is known today about the sources of economic growth. The first part discusses the most important theoretical models that have been used in modern growth theory as well as methodological issues in productivity measurement. The second part examines the long-term record on productivity among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, considers the sources of growth among them with particular attention to the role of education, investigates convergence at the industry level among them, and examines the productivity slowdown of the 1970s. The third part looks at the sources of growth among non-OECD countries. Each chapter emphasizes the factors that appear to be most important in explaining growth performance.
Author: Bart van Ark
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521496284
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 447
Get Book Here
Book Description
A quantitative account of European growth since 1950 which combines historical and economic expertise.
Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Convergence (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: John Weiss
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136698922
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 620
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Routledge Handbook of Industry and Development is a global overview of industrialisation. Each chapter will provide readers with contemporary insights into this this essential aspect of economic development. Industrialisation has been at the forefront of discussion on economic development since the earliest days of development economics. But over the last fifty years, the manufacturing sectors of different countries and regions have grown at strikingly different rates. In 1960 developing countries took a very small share of global manufacturing production. Today the position had changed radically with fast growth of manufacturing in many parts of what was originally the developing world, particularly in China and the rest of East Asia. On the other hand, countries in Africa and parts of Latin America have been largely left behind by this process of industrialisation. This volume aims to illuminate this uneven development and takes stock of the current issues that hinder and support industrialisation in low and middle income economies. This Handbook is a collection of chapters on different aspects of industrialisation experience in a range of countries. Key themes include, the role of manufacturing in growth, the nature of structural change at different stages of development, the role of manufacturing in employment creation, alternative options for trade and industrial policy, the key role of technology and technical change, and the impact of globalisation and the spread of global value chains and foreign direct investment on prospects for industrialisation. Several chapters discuss individual country experiences with examples from India, Mexico, South Africa and Tanzania, as well as an overview of African industrialisation. This authoritative Handbook will be a key reference source for those studying or wishing to understand contemporary economic development. Offering inspiration and direction for future research, this landmark volume will be of crucial importance to all development economics scholars and researchers.
Author: Raven S. Molloy
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437987419
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Get Book Here
Book Description
This report reviews patterns in migration within the U.S. over the past thirty years. Internal migration has fallen noticeably since the 1980s, reversing increases from earlier in the century. The decline in migration has been widespread across demographic and socioeconomic groups, as well as for moves of all distances. Although a convincing explanation for the secular decline in migration remains elusive and requires further research, the authors find only limited roles for the housing market contraction and the economic recession in reducing migration recently. Despite its downward trend, migration within the U.S. remains higher than that within most other developed countries. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Author: Alistair Dieppe
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816093
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 552
Get Book Here
Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Author: Stephen S. Cohen
Publisher: New York : Basic Books
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 328
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: E. Paus
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137333111
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 363
Get Book Here
Book Description
The celebratory tone about the emergence of the BRICs and the improved growth in Sub Saharan Africa and Latin America during the 2000s obscures the reality that, for large parts of the developing world, the development challenges are more acute than ever before. After three decades of Washington Consensus policies, deepening globalization, and China's and India's increasing competitiveness in ever more goods and services, many developing countries are now facing three critical challenges: how to engender a transformation of the production structure that creates many more productive jobs, how to make growth more inclusive, and how to stimulate a growth process compatible with environmental sustainability. This book brings together development scholars and practitioners from multiple academic disciplines and policy perspectives to analyze important facets of this triple challenge, to explore interconnections among them and suggest strategies for overcoming the challenges in the current age of globalization. Three features distinguish this book from other current works in the field. First, this book looks beyond the current global crisis and short-term growth opportunities and analyzes the challenges to development from a long-term perspective. Second, books on the barriers to development tend to concentrate on one of the three challenges, e.g. Barbier (2010) A Global Green New Deal on environmental sustainability; Cimoli, Dosi, Stiglitz (2009) Industrial Policy and Development on structural transformation; and Milanovic (2011) The Have and the Have-Nots on exclusion. This book, in contrast, brings the three challenges together to emphasize that they challenges are interlinked and that strategies and policies must begin to recognize these interconnections to address different aspects of the challenges concomitantly. Finally, the contributors to the book include some of the most renowned development thinkers of our time.
Author: William J. Baumol
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0195359267
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 356
Get Book Here
Book Description
This comprehensive study is a collection of original articles that view the current state of knowledge of the convergence hypothesis. The hypothesis asserts that at least since the Second World War, and perhaps for a considerable period before that, the group of industrial countries was growing increasingly homogeneous in terms of levels of productivity, technology and per capita incomes. In addition, there was general catch up toward the leader, with gradual erosion of the gap between the leader country, the U.S., throughout most of the pertinent period, and that of the countries lagging most closely behind it. The book examines patterns displayed by individual industries within countries as well as the aggregate economies, various influences that underlie the process of convergence that seems to have occurred, and the role that convergence has played and promises to play in the future of the newly industrialized nations and the less developed countries. Much of the analysis is set in a historical perspective, with particular attention paid to the record following World War II. The prestigious editors conclude that increasing productivity is the key to rising living standards in a globalized marketplace. Contributors include: Moses Abramovitz, Alice M. Amsden, Magnus Blomstrom, David Dollar, Takashi Hikino, Gregory Ingram, William Lazonick, Frank Lichtenberg, Robert E. Lipsey, Angus Maddison, Gavin Wright, and Mario Zejan.
