The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios PDF Download
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Author: Jan Gottschalk
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145520143X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.
Author: Jan Gottschalk
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145520143X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.
Author: Mr.Suman S Basu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484309812
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
To investigate the effects on Papua New Guinea’s economy of substantial liquified natural gas revenues arriving in 2015, we employ a model to examine the macroeconomic effects of a scalingup of natural resource windfall revenues and the implications for a variety of policy responses. The model is a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and features components that allow for a detailed study of the effects of both fiscal and monetary policy in response to a positive shock to the mineral resource value of a country. The model contains tradable, non-tradable, and mining sectors, as well as an independent central bank and fiscal authority. We calibrate the model to the current economy of Papua New Guinea and run a suite of policy simulations. We find that macroeconomic effects from a resource boom typically associated with Dutch Disease effects such as a real appreciation and a fall in tradable sector production stem largely from the non-tradable component of government spending. The central bank can offset the real appreciation, but not without crowding out the private sector. A sovereign wealth fund (SWF), combined with a smooth capital spending path, entails the best means of dealing with macroeconomic volatility and maintaining a stable fiscal regime.
Author: Ioana Moldovan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484376420
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
A low-income country such as Haiti that confronts an environment of diminishing aid inflows must assess tradeoffs among the available policy options: spending cuts, monetization, sales of debt, or use of foreign reserves. To provide the analytical tools for this task, the paper draws from a set of DSGE models recently developed to evaluate policy choices in low-income countries for which external aid flows represent an important revenue source. Two simplified stylized variations of the main model are used to gain intuition and initially assess the trdeaoffs. Subsequenctly a full-scale small open economy DSGE model, calibrated to match conditions in Haiti and in similar low-income countries, is employed. Several key results are common to all model versions. While sales of foreign exchange reserves can compensate for the loss of aid inflows, this strategy is not sustainable. The remaining policy choices entail larger welfare costs, involving lower consumption levels and real depreciation. The results suggest that a mixture of spending cuts and depreciation is the best strategy, when use of foreign reserves is constrained.
Author: International Working Group of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498334113
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
In September 2007, the UN Secretary General launched the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering and Working Groups. The Steering Group brings together the leaders of multilateral institutions to identify practical steps needed for Africa to achieve the MDGs. The Managing Director of the IMF is a member of the Steering Group. The Working Group supports the Steering Group and is comprised of thematic groups in education, agriculture, health, infrastructure and trade facilitation, statistics, aid predictability, and MDG operationalization at the country level. The following three notes assess the macroeconomic implications of the spending of scaled-up aid to Benin, Niger, and Togo in line with that promised by the G-8 at Gleneagles, Scotland in 2005.
Author: Anna Ter-Martirosyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475554680
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
External Assessments in Special Cases presents the pilot External Balances Assessment methodology developed by IMF staff for estimating current account and exchange rate gaps for a group of advanced and emerging market economies, and discusses modifications to take account of special cases. Different approaches to external assessments for countries with special circumstances are evaluated, and some tools presented that could be used to inform sound judgment on the part of those conducting such assessments.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505949
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 114
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Book Description
This 2011 Article IV Consultation and the Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility for Burkina Faso highlights that the authorities have maintained fiscal consolidation efforts while mitigating the impact of exogenous shocks. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ sustained implementation of sound policies and structural reforms, which has contributed to robust economic growth, low inflation, and a broadly favorable external position. Directors have encouraged the authorities to maintain fiscal discipline within the context of a medium-term fiscal framework while increasing investment and social spending.
Author: Mr.Thomson Fontaine
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 146234349X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is facing its biggest challenge in its 100 years of existence. The global economic crisis has significantly reduced its revenue outlook, which is having a disproportionate impact on its smaller member countries, and which calls for an appropriate policy response. This paper discusses specifically the implications for Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland, and provides recommendations regarding the proper fiscal response by these countries to the decline in SACU revenue.
Author: Davide Furceri
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484325230
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and medium term, with an average short-term fiscal multiplier of about 0.2. We find some evidence that the effects are larger: (i) during periods of slack; (ii) in economies operating with fixed exchange rate regimes; (iii) in more closed economies; (iv) in countries with lower public debt; and (v) in countries with higher investment efficiency. Finally, we show that increases in public investment tend to lower income inequality.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498340008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
This supplement presents the analytical frameworks underlying the IMF’s staff’s enhanced policy analysis and advice to resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The proposed macro-fiscal models, which are applied to selected country or regional cases, are aimed at addressing questions regarding how to deal with resource revenue uncertainty and how to scale up spending within relevant frameworks that ensure fiscal and external sustainability while addressing absorptive capacity constraints. The country applications confirm the importance attached by both IMF staff and country authorities of using the appropriate macro-fiscal frameworks to address the specific challenges faced by RRDCs.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149830432X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
The Ex Post Assessment aims to provide a frank review of progress during the 2006 and 2011 programs, and a forward-looking assessment that takes into account lessons learned. It begins by providing the background and context for the two programs. It then discusses their overall objectives, how the programs were designed to achieve these objectives, and program performance. After outlining the key issues, it concludes with some lessons, including for Afghanistan's future engagement with the IMF. Since late 2001, after NATO forces toppled the Taliban, the country received unprecedented support from the donor community in the context of two IMF-supported programs.
