Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies PDF Download
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Author: Ms.Nan Geng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484367626
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Author: Ms.Nan Geng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484367626
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Author: Paul de Vries
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 1607506653
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 227
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Book Description
This study discusses ways of measuring and explaining the development of house prices. The goal of the research underpinning this dissertation was to develop a methodological framework for studying these developments. This framework relates, first, to correcting for changes in the composition of dwellings and, second, to the fundamentals of the price development. Using the weighted repeat sales method and sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method, house price indexes were developed for the Netherlands. Both the Dutch land registry office and Statistics Netherlands publish the SPAR based house price index monthly. To explain and predict changes in prices, a house price model is presented. As suggested in literature on western housing markets, the Dutch house price developments can be explained by demand-oriented short-run term variables and a long-run term variable.
Author: Rob Nijskens
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030116743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN: 0465018807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Author: J. Vernon Henderson
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483294889
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 289
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Book Description
The Second Edition of Economic Theory and the Cities has been revised and expanded with both the graduate student and the practicing professional in mind. Providing a state-of-the-art synthesis of important theoretical topics in urban economics, the volume emphasizes the fundamental links between urban economics and new developments in mainstream economic theory. From the Preface: In this book I present what I believe to be the most important theoretical topics in urban economics. Since urban economics is a rather diffuse field, any presentation is necessarily selective, reflecting personal tastes and opinions. Given that, I note on what basis I chose the material that is presented and developed.First, the basic spatial model of a monocentric city is presented, since it lays the foundation for thinking about many of the topics in urban economics. The consideration of space and spatial proximity is one central feature of urban economics that distinguishes it from other branches of economics. The positive and negative externalities generated by activities locating in close spatial proximity are central to analysis of urban phenomena. However, in writing this book I have tried to maintain strong links between urban economics and recent developments in mainstream economic theory. This is reflected in the chapters that follow, which present models of aspects of the most important topics in urban economics--externalities, housing, transportation, local public finance, suburbanization, and community development. In these chapters, concepts from developments in economics over the last decade or so are woven into the traditional approaches to modeling these topics. Examples are the role of contracts in housing markets and community development; portfolio analysis in analyzing housing tenure choice and investment decisions; the time-inconsistency problem in formulating long-term economic relationships between communities, developers, and local governments; search in housing markets; and dynamic analysis in housing markets and traffic scheduling. The book ends with chapters on general equilibrium models of systems of cities, demonstrating how individual cities fit into an economy and interact with each other. This book is written both as a reference book for people in the profession and for use as a graduate text. In this edition, a strong effort has been made to present the material at a level and in a style suitable for graduate students. The edition has greatly expanded the sections on housing and local public finance so these sections could be studied profitably by a broad range of graduate students. Recommended prerequisites are an undergraduate urban economics course and a year of graduate-level microeconomic theory. It is possible that the book can be used in very advanced undergraduate courses if the students are well versed in microeconomics and are quantitatively oriented. - Focus on the basic spatial model of the monocentric city - Expanded sections on housing and local public finance - Discussion of the critical role of spatial proximity of different economic activities, such as housing, transportation, and community development
Author: Josh Ryan-Collins
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1509523294
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
Throughout the Western world, a whole generation is being priced out of the housing market. For millions of people, particularly millennials, the basic goal of acquiring decent, affordable accommodation is a distant dream. Leading economist Josh Ryan-Collins argues that to understand this crisis, we must examine a crucial paradox at the heart of modern capitalism. The interaction of private home ownership and a lightly regulated commercial banking system leads to a feedback cycle. Unlimited credit and money flows into an inherently finite supply of property, which causes rising house prices, declining home ownership, rising inequality and debt, stagnant growth and financial instability. Radical reforms are needed to break the cycle. This engaging and topical book will be essential reading for anyone who wants to understand why they can’t find an affordable home, and what we can do about it.
Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484385373
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China’s residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China. We project that residential investment would moderate from the current level of 9 percent of GDP to around 6 percent by 2024, and its contribution to real GDP growth would decline gradually from currently about half percent of GDP to slightly negative over this period, barring policy intervention. The decline in the growth contribution of residential investment reflects the projected somewhat slower pace of rebalancing going forward and the envisaged increases in labor costs due to demographic changes.
Author: Charles Goodhart
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199204594
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 247
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Book Description
House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498336949
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691173125
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392
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Book Description
Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.
