The Impact of Terms of Trade Shocks on a Small Open Economy PDF Download
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Author: Stephen J. Turnovsky
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Terms of trade
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper investigates the impact of change in the terms of trade on the economic performance of a small economy. Both the effects of unanticipated shocks and changes in the mean and variance of the probability distribution generating these disturbances are discussed. In all cases, the key element determining the response of the economy is the effect on the rate of growth of real wealth, to which all other real quantities are directly tied in equilibrium. Conditions for the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect to hold are discussed. The impact of these changes on economic welfare, as measured by expected discounted utility of the representative agent is also addressed.
Author: Stephen J. Turnovsky
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Terms of trade
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper investigates the impact of change in the terms of trade on the economic performance of a small economy. Both the effects of unanticipated shocks and changes in the mean and variance of the probability distribution generating these disturbances are discussed. In all cases, the key element determining the response of the economy is the effect on the rate of growth of real wealth, to which all other real quantities are directly tied in equilibrium. Conditions for the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect to hold are discussed. The impact of these changes on economic welfare, as measured by expected discounted utility of the representative agent is also addressed.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210862
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Using Chilean data, we document that for resource-rich small open economies the effects of terms of trade shocks on the wage gap (between skilled and unskilled workers) depend on factor intensities in the non-tradable sector, following the model in Galiani, Heymann, and Magud (2010). For a skilled-intensive non-tradable sector we show that improvements in the terms of trade benefit skilled workers. We also show that this relation holds at the industry level: the wage gap widens in skilled-intensive sectors while it shrinks in unskilled-intensive ones, the more so as terms of trade volatility decreases.
Author: Martín Uribe
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691158770
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 646
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Book Description
A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes
Author: Marías Halldór Gestsson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
The paper uses an intertemporal perfect-foresight optimizing model to analyze the effect of transitory terms-of-trade shocks on a small open . economy's current-account and utility time profiles. An adverse terms-of-trade shift known to be temporary induces the economy to run down its stock of external assets in the period before the terms of trade revert to their initial level. Subsequently, the assets consumed during this period are reaccumulated. The current-account response is due only in part to a desire to smooth out the future consumption stream. In addition, households know that the real value of any debt incurred while the terms of trade are unfavorable will be reduced sharply when the terms of trade improve. This opportunity for intertemporal price speculation causes the time path of instantaneous utility to be discontinuous,
Author: Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451852061
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
Author: Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145197504X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
Author: Baekin Cha
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Author: Wai-Mun Chia
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We examine the impact of terms-of-trade shocks on key macroeconomic variables by numerically solving a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. The model considers nominal price rigidity under different exchange rate regimes. The numerical solutions obtained are consistent with the empirical regularities documented by Broda (2004), in which output responses to shocks are smoother in floats than in pegs; in moving from pegs to floats, the rise in nominal exchange rate volatility is coupled by the rise in real exchange rate volatility; and in both exchange rate regimes, net foreign assets is the most volatile variable.
Author: Mohsen Fardmanesh
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Analyzes the impact of an oil boom caused by price increases on the sectoral structure and real purchasing power of workers in an oil-exporting 'small' open economy, and ascertains the effectiveness of economic policies in influencing the impact of the boom.
