The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016 PDF Download
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Author: Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484376692
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.
Author: Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484376692
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
Get Book Here
Book Description
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.
Author: Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484374932
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498318827
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 83
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Book Description
This paper discusses Afghanistan’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The paper highlights that in the face of many headwinds, Afghanistan’s government continues to demonstrate strong ownership of the program supported by the ECF arrangement. The economic outlook is clouded by numerous uncertainties; however, ongoing peace negotiations offer hope for a much-needed improvement in the security situation. The security situation remains strained, but the US-Taliban peace negotiations have improved prospects for a political settlement. External financing should continue to rely on grants and concessional funding. Any scaling up of externally financed public investment should be gradual and preceded by an assessment of macro-fiscal implications and strengthened debt management. Continued reforms remain key to achieving higher and more inclusive growth. Reforms in support of fiscal sustainability, institution building, anti-corruption efforts, and financial stability should continue.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484375386
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 80
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Book Description
As in other regions in the world, countries in MENAP and CCA regions are exposed to tightening in global financing conditions and ongoing global trade tensions. The former has already begun to impact several emerging market economies in MENAP and could have more severe implications should financial market sentiment suddenly deteriorate. Escalating global trade tensions will have a limited direct and immediate impact on these regions but could impart significant strains over time through negative effects on trading partners and through market confidence effects.
Author: Mr.Bjoern Rother
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475535783
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Author: Xiangming Fang
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781513559667
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Sub-Saharan Africa has been marred by conflicts during the past several decades. While the intensity of conflicts in recent years is lower than that observed in the 1990s, the region remains prone to conflicts, with around 30 percent of the countries affected in 2019. In addition to immeasurable human suffering, conflicts impose large economic costs. On average, annual growth in countries in intense conflicts is about 2.5 percentage points lower, and the cumulative impact on per capita GDP increases over time. Furthermore, conflicts pose significant strains on countries’ public finances, lowering revenue, raising military spending, and shifting resources away from development and social spending.
Author: United Nations
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464811865
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 415
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Book Description
Violent conflicts today are complex and increasinglyprotracted, involving more nonstate groups and regionaland international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—thehorizon set by the international community for achievingthe Sustainable Development Goals—more than half ofthe world’s poor will be living in countries affected byhigh levels of violence. Information and communicationtechnology, population movements, and climate changeare also creating shared risks that must be managed atboth national and international levels.Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations–WorldBank Group study that originates from the convictionthat the international community’s attention musturgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-upsystem for preventive action would save betweenUS$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which couldbe reinvested in reducing poverty and improving thewell-being of populations.The study aims to improve the way in which domesticdevelopment processes interact with security, diplomacy,mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflictsfrom becoming violent. It stresses the importance ofgrievances related to exclusion—from access to power,natural resources, security and justice, for example—thatare at the root of many violent conflicts today.Based on a review of cases in which prevention hasbeen successful, the study makes recommendations forcountries facing emerging risks of violent conflict aswell as for the international community. Developmentpolicies and programs must be a core part of preventiveefforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusivesolutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomicpolicies, institutional reform, and redistributive policiesare required. Inclusion is key, and preventive actionneeds to adopt a more people-centered approach thatincludes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancingthe participation of women and youth in decisionmaking is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well aslong-term policies to address the aspirations of womenand young people.
Author: Mr.Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498352308
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Against the background of political turmoil in the Middle-East, Europe faces an unprecedented surge in asylum applications. In analyzing the economic impact of this inflow, this paper draws from the experience of previous economic migrants and refugees, mindful of the fact that the characteristics of economic migrants can be different from refugees. In the short-run, additional public expenditure will provide a small positive impact on GDP, concentrated in the main destination countries of Germany, Sweden and Austria. Over the longer-term, depending on the speed and success of the integration of refugees in the labor market, the increase in the labor force can have a more lasting impact on growth and the public finances. Here good policies will make an important difference. These include lowering barriers to labor markets for refugees, for example through wage subsidies to employers, and, in particular, reducing legal barriers to labor market participation during asylum process, removing obstacles to entrepreneurship/self-employment, providing job training and job search assistance, as well as language skills. While native workers often have legitimate concerns about the impact of immigrants on wages and employment, past experience indicates that any adverse effects are limited and temporary.
Author: WorldBank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464806764
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 286
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Book Description
The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
