Testing for Non-Linearity in the Foreign Currency Futures Market PDF Download
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Author: Wan Mansor Mahmood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In this paper, the issue of nonlinearity in foreign currency futures markets is examined. Daily returns are found to be linear independent but nonlinear dependent. That is, they are correlated through their second moment. However, when the BDS test is applied, the results are inconclusive as the null hypothesis of i.i.d is not rejected in some cases but rejected in others. This rejection of i.i.d in the returns and filtered returns series arises solely from the variance of the process as suggested by the third moment test. As such, GARCH(1,1) models are fitted to all the return series and the corresponding standardized residuals are tested for i.i.d behavior. It is shown that the model brings about some improvement in that nonlinear dependence in the return series is reduced considerably.
Author: Wan Mansor Mahmood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In this paper, the issue of nonlinearity in foreign currency futures markets is examined. Daily returns are found to be linear independent but nonlinear dependent. That is, they are correlated through their second moment. However, when the BDS test is applied, the results are inconclusive as the null hypothesis of i.i.d is not rejected in some cases but rejected in others. This rejection of i.i.d in the returns and filtered returns series arises solely from the variance of the process as suggested by the third moment test. As such, GARCH(1,1) models are fitted to all the return series and the corresponding standardized residuals are tested for i.i.d behavior. It is shown that the model brings about some improvement in that nonlinear dependence in the return series is reduced considerably.
Author: Wan Mansor Mahmood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In this paper, the relationship between returns and trading volume is examined for four futures contracts for the period January 1, 1986 to April 30, 1997. Both linear and nonlinear dependence are examined. The study first employs linear causality tests and find that futures returns and volume have no predictive power for one another. However, since the series show evidence of nonlinear dependence, the GARCH model is then employed. The results show a sifnificant relationship between the returns and volume for only two of the four currencies (i.e Japanese yen and Swiss franc) tested. Moveover, when the series are divided into subsamples, the results of the GARCH tests point to a significant relationship for all currency futures regarding the prediction of returns from volume traded, although mainly in the second period. The results of this study suggest that trading volume can provide importat information in return prediction using a nonlinear model but that the series do not exihibit homogenous behaviour over the entire sample period. Further, the results support the sequential information arrival hypothesis ounly in few cases.
Author: Laura E. Kodres
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange futures
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Author: Lucio Sarno
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.
Author: Wan Mansor Wan Mahmood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 650
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Book Description
Author: Paolo Guarda
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Zuliu Hu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451921640
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
A common specification about the behavior of foreign exchange spot and futures prices is that they follow continuous diffusion processes. The empirical regularities uncovered from daily and weekly currency futures data, however, cast doubts on the validity of this model. First, contrary to the suggestions in the literature, changes in foreign currency futures prices are serially correlated; variance ratio tests and other related tests overwhelmingly reject Samuelson’s martingale hypothesis. Second, foreign exchange futures prices do not appear to have continuous sample path; the evidence suggests the presence of a jump component, which may lead to pricing bias when applying the standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula to foreign exchange markets.
Author: Christos H. Skiadas
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1315356546
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 921
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Book Description
In addition to explaining and modeling unexplored phenomena in nature and society, chaos uses vital parts of nonlinear dynamical systems theory and established chaotic theory to open new frontiers and fields of study. Handbook of Applications of Chaos Theory covers the main parts of chaos theory along with various applications to diverse areas. Expert contributors from around the world show how chaos theory is used to model unexplored cases and stimulate new applications. Accessible to scientists, engineers, and practitioners in a variety of fields, the book discusses the intermittency route to chaos, evolutionary dynamics and deterministic chaos, and the transition to phase synchronization chaos. It presents important contributions on strange attractors, self-exciting and hidden attractors, stability theory, Lyapunov exponents, and chaotic analysis. It explores the state of the art of chaos in plasma physics, plasma harmonics, and overtone coupling. It also describes flows and turbulence, chaotic interference versus decoherence, and an application of microwave networks to the simulation of quantum graphs. The book proceeds to give a detailed presentation of the chaotic, rogue, and noisy optical dissipative solitons; parhelic-like circle and chaotic light scattering; and interesting forms of the hyperbolic prism, the Poincaré disc, and foams. It also covers numerous application areas, from the analysis of blood pressure data and clinical digital pathology to chaotic pattern recognition to economics to musical arts and research.
Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139445405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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Book Description
The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.
Author: Laura E. Kodres
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange futures
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
