Reducing Modeling Uncertainty Using ASTM Ground-Water Modeling Standards PDF Download
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Author: DM. Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Calibration
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
It is impossible to know with certainty that application of a ground-water modeling code to a site-specific problem is producing correct predictions. This paper describes procedures in ASTM standards that can reduce uncertainty associated with a model's predictive capability for use in decision-making. Modeling projects should begin with a clear statement of the objective. The modeler should consider restating the problem in terms of bounded predictions rather than specific numerical predictions to allow conservatism in assumptions. The modeler should develop a conceptual model of applicable hydrogeologic framework and physical processes. The uniqueness problem should be addressed by using measured hydraulic conductivities, calibrating to ground-water flow rates as well as hydraulic heads, and/or calibrating to data collected during multiple distinct hydrologic conditions. Over-calibration can be avoided by performing application verification. A sensitivity analysis should be performed to identify model inputs that meet the calibration criteria but produce fundamentally different predictions. A field audit can be performed to directly test the model's prediction. Sound hydrologic judgement is necessary to perform these procedures and interpret modeling results.
Author: DM. Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Calibration
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
It is impossible to know with certainty that application of a ground-water modeling code to a site-specific problem is producing correct predictions. This paper describes procedures in ASTM standards that can reduce uncertainty associated with a model's predictive capability for use in decision-making. Modeling projects should begin with a clear statement of the objective. The modeler should consider restating the problem in terms of bounded predictions rather than specific numerical predictions to allow conservatism in assumptions. The modeler should develop a conceptual model of applicable hydrogeologic framework and physical processes. The uniqueness problem should be addressed by using measured hydraulic conductivities, calibrating to ground-water flow rates as well as hydraulic heads, and/or calibrating to data collected during multiple distinct hydrologic conditions. Over-calibration can be avoided by performing application verification. A sensitivity analysis should be performed to identify model inputs that meet the calibration criteria but produce fundamentally different predictions. A field audit can be performed to directly test the model's prediction. Sound hydrologic judgement is necessary to perform these procedures and interpret modeling results.
Author: Joseph D. Ritchey
Publisher: ASTM International
ISBN: 0803120214
Category : Aquifers
Languages : en
Pages : 424
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Book Description
Author: Mary C. Hill
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470041072
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 475
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Book Description
Methods and guidelines for developing and using mathematical models Turn to Effective Groundwater Model Calibration for a set of methods and guidelines that can help produce more accurate and transparent mathematical models. The models can represent groundwater flow and transport and other natural and engineered systems. Use this book and its extensive exercises to learn methods to fully exploit the data on hand, maximize the model's potential, and troubleshoot any problems that arise. Use the methods to perform: Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the information content of data Data assessment to identify (a) existing measurements that dominate model development and predictions and (b) potential measurements likely to improve the reliability of predictions Calibration to develop models that are consistent with the data in an optimal manner Uncertainty evaluation to quantify and communicate errors in simulated results that are often used to make important societal decisions Most of the methods are based on linear and nonlinear regression theory. Fourteen guidelines show the reader how to use the methods advantageously in practical situations. Exercises focus on a groundwater flow system and management problem, enabling readers to apply all the methods presented in the text. The exercises can be completed using the material provided in the book, or as hands-on computer exercises using instructions and files available on the text's accompanying Web site. Throughout the book, the authors stress the need for valid statistical concepts and easily understood presentation methods required to achieve well-tested, transparent models. Most of the examples and all of the exercises focus on simulating groundwater systems; other examples come from surface-water hydrology and geophysics. The methods and guidelines in the text are broadly applicable and can be used by students, researchers, and engineers to simulate many kinds systems.
Author: ASTM Committee D-18 on Soil and Rock
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Groundwater
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Philippe Renard
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889636747
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 177
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Book Description
Numerical models of flow and transport processes are heavily employed in the fields of surface, soil, and groundwater hydrology. They are used to interpret field observations, analyze complex and coupled processes, or to support decision making related to large societal issues such as the water-energy nexus or sustainable water management and food production. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification are two key features of modern science-based predictions. When applied to water resources, these tasks must cope with many degrees of freedom and large datasets. Both are challenging and require novel theoretical and computational approaches to handle complex models with large number of unknown parameters.
Author: C. P. Kumar
Publisher: C. P. Kumar
ISBN:
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
Groundwater development has shown phenomenal progress in our country during past few decades. There has been a vast improvement in the perception, outlook and significance of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a dynamic system. It is dynamic in the sense that the state of any hydrological system is changing with time, and in the sense that we are continually developing new scientific techniques to evaluate these systems. The total annual replenishable groundwater resource of India is around 431 BCM. Inspite of the national scenario on the availability of groundwater being favourable, there are many areas in the country facing scarcity of water. This is because of the unplanned groundwater development resulting in fall of water levels, failure of wells, and salinity ingress in coastal areas. The development and over-exploitation of groundwater resources in certain parts of the country have raised the concern and need for judicious and scientific resource management and conservation. A complexity of factors - hydrogeological, hydrological and climatological, control the groundwater occurrence and movement. The precise assessment of recharge and discharge is rather difficult, as no techniques are currently available for their direct measurements. Hence, the methods employed for groundwater resource estimation are all indirect. Groundwater being a dynamic and replenishable resource is generally estimated based on the component of annual recharge, which could be subjected to development by means of suitable groundwater structures. Mathematical models are tools, which are frequently used in studying groundwater systems. In general, mathematical models are used to simulate (or to predict) the groundwater flow. Predictive simulations must be viewed as estimates, dependent upon the quality and uncertainty of the input data. Model conceptualization is the process in which data describing field conditions are assembled in a systematic way to describe groundwater flow processes at a site. The model conceptualization aids in determining the modelling approach and which model software to use. Taking the base from my lecture notes delivered in various training courses during last 26 years and further editing and additions, I have developed this book titled “Groundwater Assessment and Modelling”. The book is intended to provide a comprehensive treatise related to assessment and modelling of groundwater. It includes chapters on assessment of groundwater potential, groundwater data requirement and analysis, basic concepts and guidelines for groundwater modelling, groundwater modelling software, modelling of unsaturated flow, modelling of sea water intrusion, and impact of climate change on groundwater resources. I hope this book will be quite useful for undergraduate and postgraduate students (water resources engineering), field engineers and researchers working in the area of assessment, development and management of groundwater resources.
Author: Aly I. El-Kadi
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351443909
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Written by renowned experts in the field, this book assesses the status of groundwater models and defines models and modeling needs in the 21st century. It reviews the state of the art in model development and application in regional groundwater management, unsaturated flow/multiphase flow and transport, island modeling, biological and virus transport, and fracture flow. Both deterministic and stochastic aspects of unsaturated flow and transport are covered. The book also introduces a unique assessment of models as analysis and management tools for groundwater resources. Topics covered include model vs. data uncertainty, accuracy of the dispersion/convection equation, protocols for model testing and validation, post-audit studies, and applying models to karst aquifers.
Author: Mary P. Anderson
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0080916384
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 632
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Book Description
This second edition is extensively revised throughout with expanded discussion of modeling fundamentals and coverage of advances in model calibration and uncertainty analysis that are revolutionizing the science of groundwater modeling. The text is intended for undergraduate and graduate level courses in applied groundwater modeling and as a comprehensive reference for environmental consultants and scientists/engineers in industry and governmental agencies. Explains how to formulate a conceptual model of a groundwater system and translate it into a numerical model Demonstrates how modeling concepts, including boundary conditions, are implemented in two groundwater flow codes-- MODFLOW (for finite differences) and FEFLOW (for finite elements) Discusses particle tracking methods and codes for flowpath analysis and advective transport of contaminants Summarizes parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis approaches using the code PEST to illustrate how concepts are implemented Discusses modeling ethics and preparation of the modeling report Includes Boxes that amplify and supplement topics covered in the text Each chapter presents lists of common modeling errors and problem sets that illustrate concepts
Author: Neven Kresic
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781566702195
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 482
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Book Description
Quantitative Solutions in Hydrogeology and Groundwater Modeling addresses and solves a variety of questions and problems from hydrogeological practice. It includes major aspects of quantitative groundwater evaluation, from basic laboratory determination of hydrogeological parameters to complex analytical calculations and modeling for engineering purposes. Groundwater modeling is a strong trend in hydrogeology. Recent years have seen the rapid development of sophisticated and powerful groundwater models, along with a decrease in the use of the more mathematically demanding analytical quantitative solutions. Quantitative Solutions in Hydrogeology and Groundwater Modeling avoids this conflict by explaining both modeling and mathematical solutions in detail.
Author: Marc F. P. Bierkens
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781901502589
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 334
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Book Description
Several of the papers here deal with decision making under uncertainty.
