Production Planning with Risk Hedging Under a CVaR Objective PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Production Planning with Risk Hedging Under a CVaR Objective PDF full book. Access full book title Production Planning with Risk Hedging Under a CVaR Objective by Liao Wang. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Liao Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
A central problem in planning production capacity is how to effectively manage demand risk. We develop a model that integrates capacity planning and risk hedging decisions under a popular risk measure, conditional value at risk (CVaR). The CVaR objective generalizes the usual risk-neutral objective (such as the expected payoff), and allows for explicit modeling of the degree of aversion to downside risk (associated with low demand). The starting point of our model is to incorporate the impact on demand from a financial asset (including, for instance, a tradable market index as a proxy for the general economy) via a demand rate function. This way, in addition to the capacity decision at the beginning of the planning horizon, there is also a dynamic hedging strategy throughout the horizon, the latter plays the role of both mitigating demand risk and supplementing the payoff. The hedging strategy is restricted to partial information along with a cap on loss (pathwise). To find the optimal hedging strategy, we construct and solve a dual problem to derive the optimal terminal wealth from hedging; the real-time hedging strategy is then mapped out via the martingale representation theorem. With the hedging strategy optimized, we show that optimizing the production quantity is a concave maximization problem. With both production and hedging (jointly) optimized, we provide a complete characterization of the efficient frontier, and quantify the improvement over the production-only approach. Furthermore, via sensitivity and asymptotic analyses, we spell out the impacts of the hedging budget and the risk aversion level, along with other qualitative insights.
Author: Liao Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
A central problem in planning production capacity is how to effectively manage demand risk. We develop a model that integrates capacity planning and risk hedging decisions under a popular risk measure, conditional value at risk (CVaR). The CVaR objective generalizes the usual risk-neutral objective (such as the expected payoff), and allows for explicit modeling of the degree of aversion to downside risk (associated with low demand). The starting point of our model is to incorporate the impact on demand from a financial asset (including, for instance, a tradable market index as a proxy for the general economy) via a demand rate function. This way, in addition to the capacity decision at the beginning of the planning horizon, there is also a dynamic hedging strategy throughout the horizon, the latter plays the role of both mitigating demand risk and supplementing the payoff. The hedging strategy is restricted to partial information along with a cap on loss (pathwise). To find the optimal hedging strategy, we construct and solve a dual problem to derive the optimal terminal wealth from hedging; the real-time hedging strategy is then mapped out via the martingale representation theorem. With the hedging strategy optimized, we show that optimizing the production quantity is a concave maximization problem. With both production and hedging (jointly) optimized, we provide a complete characterization of the efficient frontier, and quantify the improvement over the production-only approach. Furthermore, via sensitivity and asymptotic analyses, we spell out the impacts of the hedging budget and the risk aversion level, along with other qualitative insights.
Author: Liao Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
By quantifying the risk reduction contributed by the hedging strategy, we demonstrate its substantial improvement over a production-only decision. To derive the mean-variance hedging strategy, we use a numeraire-based approach, and the derived optimal strategy consists of a risk mitigation component and an investment component. For the shortfall hedging, a convex duality method is used, and the optimal strategy takes the form of a put option and a digital option, which combine to close the gap from the target left by production (only). Furthermore, we extend the models and results by allowing multiple products, with demand rates depending on multiple assets. We also make extension by allowing the asset price to follow various stochastic processes (other than the geometric Brownian motion).
Author: Liao Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 49
Get Book Here
Book Description
We study production planning integrated with risk hedging by considering shortfall as the risk measure. In addition to the one-time production quantity decision, there is a real-time hedging strategy throughout the horizon; and the goal is to minimize the gap between a pre-specified target and the total terminal wealth achieved by both production and hedging. We assume partial information -- hedging is executed based on information from the financial market only, and impose a budget constraint to cap any loss from hedging. To find the optimal hedging strategy, we construct a dual problem, which provides a lower bound to the original problem. Solving the lower-bound problem yields the optimal terminal wealth from hedging; the real-time hedging strategy is then mapped out via martingale representation theorem. Interestingly, the optimal hedging strategy takes the form of a portfolio of two options, a digital option and a put option. With the hedging strategy optimized, we show that optimizing production quantity is a convex minimization problem. With both production and hedging optimized, we provide a complete characterization of the efficient frontier: the minimized shortfall as an increasing function of the target. We also derive an explicit quantification of the shortfall reduction achieved by hedging. Asymptotic analysis on several key parameters (such as the target, the budget, and the production quantity) generates additional insights to the hedging strategy and its impact.
Author: Panos Kouvelis
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118115791
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
Get Book Here
Book Description
A comprehensive, one-stop reference for cutting-edge research in integrated risk management, modern applications, and best practices In the field of business, the ever-growing dependency on global supply chains has created new challenges that traditional risk management must be equipped to handle. Handbook of Integrated Risk Management in Global Supply Chains uses a multi-disciplinary approach to present an effective way to manage complex, diverse, and interconnected global supply chain risks. Contributions from leading academics and researchers provide an action-based framework that captures real issues, implementation challenges, and concepts emerging from industry studies.The handbook is divided into five parts: Foundations and Overview introduces risk management and discusses the impact of supply chain disruptions on corporate performance Integrated Risk Management: Operations and Finance Interface explores the joint use of operational and financial hedging of commodity price uncertainties Supply Chain Finance discusses financing alternatives and the role of financial services in procurement contracts; inventory management and capital structure; and bank financing of inventories Operational Risk Management Strategies outlines supply risks and challenges in decentralized supply chains, such as competition and misalignment of incentives between buyers and suppliers Industrial Applications presents examples and case studies that showcase the discussed methodologies Each topic's presentation includes an introduction, key theories, formulas, and applications. Discussions conclude with a summary of the main concepts, a real-world example, and professional insights into common challenges and best practices. Handbook of Integrated Risk Management in Global Supply Chains is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in the areas of supply chain management, global logistics, management science, and industrial engineering who gather, analyze, and draw results from data. The handbook is also a suitable supplement for operations research, risk management, and financial engineering courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author: Liao Wang
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781680835557
Category : Business logistics
Languages : en
Pages : 18
Get Book Here
Book Description
We examine the classical productional planning model, where a capacity decision that has to be made at the beginning of the planning horizon is the primary means to protect against demand uncertainty. We provide a critique on the model focusing on its profit maximizing objective, its underlying assumptions on demand and related forecasting scheme, and its overall business relevance (or the lack thereof); and we do so in the context of data, risk and analytics. Specifically, we will consider minimizing a shortfall risk relative to a profit target, with a demand model that captures impacts from the financial market and can be learned from data sets that are application specific. With a jointly optimized production and hedging strategy, we show the new model outperforms traditional approaches in risk mitigation as well as in expected profit.
Author: Liao Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
Demand for many products may depend on the price of a tradable asset or on the economy in general. For instance, demand for equipment that plants or harvests corns correlates with the fluctuations of the corn price on the commodity market; and discount stores experienced increased sales revenue during the last recession. Thus, we model demand as a stochastic process with two components: in addition to the usual Gaussian component due to forecast errors, there is a drift component taking the form of a function of a tradable asset price. (In the case of dependence on the general economy, the asset price can be a broad market index, such as the S&P500 index.) With this demand model, we study the one-time production quantity decision along with a real-time risk-hedging strategy over a given planning horizon (the production cycle). Pursuing a mean-variance formulation, we derive the optimal solution to both production and hedging decisions. In addition, we give a complete characterization of the efficient frontier, and quantify the improvement in risk-return tradeoff achieved by the hedging strategy.
Author: Simo M. Dafir
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119026733
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
Get Book Here
Book Description
A hands-on guide to navigating the new fuel markets Fuel Hedging and Risk Management: Strategies for Airlines, Shippers and Other Consumers provides a clear and practical understanding of commodity price dynamics, key fuel hedging techniques, and risk management strategies for the corporate fuel consumer. It covers the commodity markets and derivative instruments in a manner accessible to corporate treasurers, financial officers, risk managers, commodity traders, structurers, as well as quantitative professionals dealing in the energy markets. The book includes a wide variety of key topics related to commodities and derivatives markets, financial risk analysis of commodity consumers, hedge program design and implementation, vanilla derivatives and exotic hedging products. The book is unique in providing intuitive guidance on understanding the dynamics of forward curves and volatility term structure for commodities, fuel derivatives valuation and counterparty risk concepts such as CVA, DVA and FVA. Fully up-to-date and relevant, this book includes comprehensive case studies that illustrate the hedging process from conception to execution and monitoring of hedges in diverse situations. This practical guide will help the reader: Gain expert insight into all aspects of fuel hedging, price and volatility drivers and dynamics. Develop a framework for financial risk analysis and hedge programs. Navigate volatile energy markets by employing effective risk management techniques. Manage unwanted risks associated with commodity derivatives by understanding liquidity and credit risk calculations, exposure optimization techniques, credit charges such as CVA, DVA, FVA, etc.
Author: Martin K. Starr
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1317419243
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 712
Get Book Here
Book Description
This remarkable volume highlights the importance of Production and Operations Management (POM) as a field of study and research contributing to substantial business and social growth. The editors emphasize how POM works with a range of systems—agriculture, disaster management, e-commerce, healthcare, hospitality, military systems, not-for-profit, retail, sports, sustainability, telecommunications, and transport—and how it contributes to the growth of each. Martin K. Starr and Sushil K. Gupta gather an international team of experts to provide researchers and students with a panoramic vision of the field. Divided into eight parts, the book presents the history of POM, and establishes the foundation upon which POM has been built while also revisiting and revitalizing topics that have long been essential. It examines the significance of processes and projects to the fundamental growth of the POM field. Critical emerging themes and new research are examined with open minds and this is followed by opportunities to interface with other business functions. Finally, the next era is discussed in ways that combine practical skill with philosophy in its analysis of POM, including traditional and nontraditional applications, before concluding with the editors’ thoughts on the future of the discipline. Students of POM will find this a comprehensive, definitive resource on the state of the discipline and its future directions.
Author: Hrushikesh Mallick
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9464630981
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 2160
Get Book Here
Book Description
This is an open access book. 2022 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2022) to be held in Chongqing (Online) on October 14-16, 2022. As the leader of the global trend of scientific and technological innovation, China is constantly creating a more open scientific and technological innovation environment, expanding the depth and breadth of academic cooperation, and building a shared innovation community. These efforts are making new contributions to globalization and building a community with a shared future for mankind. ICEMCI aims to bring together innovative academics and industry experts in Economic Management and Cultural Industry into a common forum. We will discuss and research on areas such as International Economics and Trade, Sustainable Economic Development, Economic Statistics, Economic Policy, The impact of cultural industries on the economy, etc. ICEMCI 2022 also aims to provide a platform for experts, scholars, engineers, technicians and technology R&D personnel to share scientific research results and cutting-edge technologies, understand academic development trends, expand research ideas, strengthen academic research and discussion, and promote cooperation in the industrialization of academic achievements . With the theme "Economic Management and Cultural Industry", ICEMCI 2022 aspires to keeping up with advances and changes to a consistently morphing field. Leading researchers and industry experts from around the globe will be presenting the latest studies through papers, keynote speeches and oral presentations. We warmly invite you to participate in ICEMCI 2022 and look forward to seeing you in Chongqing !
Author: Hubert Missbauer
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 107160354X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 289
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents a comprehensive overview of recent developments in production planning. The monograph begins with an introductory chapter reviewing the need for these production planning models, that operate by determining time-phased releases of work into the facility or supply chain, relating these to the Manufacturing Planning and Control (MPC) and Advanced Planning and Scheduling (APS) frameworks, that form the basis of most academic research and industrial practice. The extensive body of work on Workload Control is also placed in this context, and proves the need for improved models with a discussion of the difficulties, these approaches encounter. The next two chapters present a detailed review of the state of the art in optimization models based on exogenous planned lead times, and examines the cases where these can take both integer and fractional values. The difficulties arising in estimating planned lead times are consistent with factory behavior which are highlighted, noting that many of these lead to non-convex optimization models. Attempts to address these difficulties by iterative multimodel approaches, that combine simulation and mathematical programming, are also discussed in detail. The next three chapters of the volume address the set of techniques developed using clearing functions, which represent the expected output of a resource in a planning period, as a function of the expected workload of the resource, during that period. The chapters on this subject propose a basic optimization model for multiple products, discuss the difficulties of this model and some possible solutions. It also reviews prior work, and discuss a number of alternative formulations of the clearing function concept with their respective advantages and disadvantages. Applications to lot sizing decisions and a number of other specific problems are also described. This volume concludes with an assessment of the state of the art described in the volume, and several directions for future work.
