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Author: Horag Choi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance, Personal
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We employ a model of precautionary saving to study why household saving rates are so high in China and so low in the US. The use of recursive preferences gives a convenient decomposition of saving into precautionary and non precautionary components. This decomposition indicates that over 80 percent of China's saving rate and nearly all of the US saving arises from the precautionary motive. The difference in the income growth rate between China and the US is vastly more important for explaining saving rate differences than differences in income risk. We estimate the preference parameters and find that Chinese and US households are more similar in their attitude toward risk than in their intertemporal substitutability of consumption.
Author: Horag Choi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance, Personal
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We employ a model of precautionary saving to study why household saving rates are so high in China and so low in the US. The use of recursive preferences gives a convenient decomposition of saving into precautionary and non precautionary components. This decomposition indicates that over 80 percent of China's saving rate and nearly all of the US saving arises from the precautionary motive. The difference in the income growth rate between China and the US is vastly more important for explaining saving rate differences than differences in income risk. We estimate the preference parameters and find that Chinese and US households are more similar in their attitude toward risk than in their intertemporal substitutability of consumption.
Author: Mr.Marcos Chamon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455211702
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
China’s household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped. We find that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms help explain both of these phenomena. Using a panel of Chinese households covering the period 1989-2006, we document that strong average income growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in income uncertainty. Interestingly, the permanent variance of household income remains stable while it is the transitory variance that rises sharply. A calibration of a buffer-stock savings model indicates that rising savings rates among younger households are consistent with rising income uncertainty and higher saving rates among older households are consistent with a decline in the pension replacement ratio for those retiring after 1997. We conclude that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms can account for over half of the increase in the urban household savings rate in China since the mid-1990s as well as the U-shaped age-profile of savings.
Author: Alexandra Küttel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
A key policy question that China is facing is how to rebalance economic growth away from export/investment dependency to a consumption-driven growth path. It is a widespread believe that the main culprit of reduced private consumption as share of GDP is the rising household saving rate. It is often claimed that saving rates have remained so high due to precautionary savings by households caused by the lack of a well-functioning social security system. In order to implement adequate policies to increase household consumption, it is essential to know what drives Chinese household saving. This thesis conducts a panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate across Chinese provinces for the 2000-2010 period. The main findings are the presence of very strong saving inertia across urban and rural households and mixed effects of most other variables on urban and rural households. No evidence is found for precautionary saving driven by the lack of adequate social security.
Author: Feifei Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Education savings accounts
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
The main purpose of this study is to compare the household saving motives between Chinese and Americans. The two datasets used in this study are from the 2008 Survey of Chinese Consumer Finance and Investor Education and the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances in the United States. The likelihood of reporting precautionary saving motive, education saving motive, and retirement saving motive was tested by logistic regression analysis. This study concluded that Chinese households were more likely to report the precautionary and education saving motives, when compared with American households. In terms of the retirement saving motive, only Chinese households placed in the first and second household income groups were more likely to perceive the retirement saving motive than their counterpart Americans. There was no difference in perceiving the retirement motive between Chinese and Americans for all the other household groups. The stronger motivation to save for Chinese than for Americans serves as a good explanation for the higher saving rates in China than in the United States. Policy makers and financial planners can use the findings to target particular population who are less motivated to save, and to help them realize the importance of saving and conduct necessary saving behaviors.
Author: Ms.Longmei Zhang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484388771
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, high savings mostly emanate from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occured during the transition from planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.
Author: Mr.Christopher Carroll
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505698
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
Author: Joseph P. H. Fan
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226237249
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
La 4e de couverture indique : "Despite a vast accumulation of private capital, China is not embracing capitalism. Deceptively familiar capitalist features disguise the profoundly unfamiliar foundations of "market socialism with Chinese characteristics." The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), by controlling the career advancement of all senior personnel in all regulatory agencies, all state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and virtually all major financial institutions state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and senior Party positions in all but the smallest non-SOE enterprises, retains sole possession of Lenin's Commanding Heights. The chapters in this volume examine China's high savings rate, banking system, financial markets, financial regulations, corporate governance, and public finances; and consider policy alternatives the CCP might consider if its goal is China's elevation into the ranks of high income countries."
Author: Sichuang Xu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Disposable income
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Xin Meng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The permanent income hypothesis and life-cycle models allowing for precautionary saving suggest that households may be able to smooth their consumption by saving during normal periods or when facing high income uncertainties and dissaving when adverse economic shocks occur. These hypotheses are tested using a unique data set collected from China. Our findings indicate that Chinese urban households are capable of smoothing most consumption and have a strong motive for precautionary saving. However, we find strong evidence of an inability to smooth educational expenditure suggesting educational subsidies may be necessary to prevent further increases in income inequality in the next generation.
Author: Mr.David Coady
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451982135
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
This paper shows that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social expenditures for a panel of OECD countries and provides illustrative estimates of their implications for China. It then applies a generational accounting framework to Chinese household income survey data. This analysis suggests that a sustained 1 percent of GDP increase in public expenditures, distributed equally across education, health, and pensions, would result in a permanent increase the household consumption ratio of 11⁄4 percentage points of GDP.
