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Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher: Teacher Created Materials
ISBN:
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
There are many different jobs in which people make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past. Volcanologists and seismologists use data collection to make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past! With vibrant photos, math charts and diagrams, grade-appropriate text, and informational text features to help navigate the text, students will learn practical, real-world applications of math skills as they learn how to estimate and build their STEM skills.
Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher: Teacher Created Materials
ISBN:
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
There are many different jobs in which people make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past. Volcanologists and seismologists use data collection to make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past! With vibrant photos, math charts and diagrams, grade-appropriate text, and informational text features to help navigate the text, students will learn practical, real-world applications of math skills as they learn how to estimate and build their STEM skills.
Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher: Teacher Created Materials
ISBN:
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
There are many different jobs in which people make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past. Volcanologists and seismologists use data collection to make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past! With vibrant ph
Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher: Capstone
ISBN: 1429652438
Category : Estimation theory
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Introduces estimation and describes how scientists use it to predict and prepare for natural disasters.
Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780329818449
Category : Estimation theory
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Some natural disasters that can happen at any time are tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Scientists collect data to help them make predictions about when a natural disaster will occur. Some of these scientists are volcanologists, seismologists, and meteorologists. They all use tools to help them predict natural disasters. Weather data is also helpful when predicting natural disasters.
Author: Johanna Rothman
Publisher: Practical Ink
ISBN: 1943487022
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 115
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Book Description
If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is “guess.” But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report your estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should—and should not—estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects.
Author: George Dinwiddie
Publisher: Pragmatic Bookshelf
ISBN: 1680507419
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 308
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Book Description
Estimating software development often produces more angst than value, but it doesn't have to. Identify the needs behind estimate requests and determine how to meet those needs simply and easily. Choose estimation techniques based on current needs and available information, gaining benefit while reducing cost and effort. Detect bad assumptions that might sink your project if you don't adjust your plans. Discover what to do when an estimate is wrong, how to recover, and how to use that knowledge for future planning. Learn to communicate about estimates in a healthy and productive way, maximizing advantage to the organization and minimizing damage to the people. In a world where most developers hate estimation and most managers fear disappointment with the results, there is hope for both. It requires giving up some widely held misconceptions. Let go of the notion that "an estimate is an estimate" and estimate for the particular need you, and your organization, have. Realize that estimates have a limited shelf-life, and reestimate frequently if it's important. When reality differs from your estimate, don't lament; mine that disappointment for the gold that can be the longer-term jackpot. Estimate in comparison to past experience, by modeling the work mathematically, or a hybrid of both. Learn strategies for effective decomposition of work and aspects of the work that likely affect your estimates. Hedge your bets by comparing the results of different approaches. Find out what to do when an estimate proves wrong. And they will. They're estimates, after all. You'll discover that you can use estimates to warn you of danger so you can take appropriate action in time. Learn some crucial techniques to understand and communicate with those who need to understand. Address both the technical and sociological aspects of estimation, and you'll help your organization achieve its desired goals with less drama and more benefit. What You Need: No software needed, just your past experience and concern for the outcomes.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Johanna Rothman
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781680501421
Category : Project management
Languages : en
Pages : 114
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Book Description
If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is to guess. But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers with the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report an estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should and should not estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects.
Author: William Q. Meeker
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118594959
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 648
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Book Description
Describes statistical intervals to quantify sampling uncertainty,focusing on key application needs and recently developed methodology in an easy-to-apply format Statistical intervals provide invaluable tools for quantifying sampling uncertainty. The widely hailed first edition, published in 1991, described the use and construction of the most important statistical intervals. Particular emphasis was given to intervals—such as prediction intervals, tolerance intervals and confidence intervals on distribution quantiles—frequently needed in practice, but often neglected in introductory courses. Vastly improved computer capabilities over the past 25 years have resulted in an explosion of the tools readily available to analysts. This second edition—more than double the size of the first—adds these new methods in an easy-to-apply format. In addition to extensive updating of the original chapters, the second edition includes new chapters on: Likelihood-based statistical intervals Nonparametric bootstrap intervals Parametric bootstrap and other simulation-based intervals An introduction to Bayesian intervals Bayesian intervals for the popular binomial, Poisson and normal distributions Statistical intervals for Bayesian hierarchical models Advanced case studies, further illustrating the use of the newly described methods New technical appendices provide justification of the methods and pathways to extensions and further applications. A webpage directs readers to current readily accessible computer software and other useful information. Statistical Intervals: A Guide for Practitioners and Researchers, Second Edition is an up-to-date working guide and reference for all who analyze data, allowing them to quantify the uncertainty in their results using statistical intervals.
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
