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Author: Turan G. Bali
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 67
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Book Description
We develop an ex-ante measure of expected stock returns based on analyst price targets. We then show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied from stock option prices are positively related to the cross section of ex-ante expected stock returns. While expected returns are related to both the systematic and unsystematic components of volatility, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are related to the cross section of expected stock returns after controlling for other variables known to be related to the cross section of expected stock returns or analyst forecast bias.
Author: Turan G. Bali
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 67
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Book Description
We develop an ex-ante measure of expected stock returns based on analyst price targets. We then show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied from stock option prices are positively related to the cross section of ex-ante expected stock returns. While expected returns are related to both the systematic and unsystematic components of volatility, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are related to the cross section of expected stock returns after controlling for other variables known to be related to the cross section of expected stock returns or analyst forecast bias.
Author: Turan G. Bali
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
Motivated by the nature of asset pricing models, we investigate the cross-sectional relation between the market's ex-ante view of a stock's risk and the stock's ex-ante expected return. We demonstrate that an ex-ante measure of expected returns based on analyst price targets is highly related to the market's required rate of return. Using this measure, we show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis derived from option prices are positively related to ex-ante expected returns. We then decompose the risk measures into systematic and unsystematic components and find that while expected returns are related to both systematic and unsystematic variance risk, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are important for explaining the cross-section of expected stock returns. The results are consistent using two different approaches to measuring ex-ante risk and robust to controls for other variables related to stock returns and analyst bias.
Author: Ronald Jared DeLisle
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Book Description
ABSTRACT: This dissertation examines if information extracted from the options markets is priced in the cross-section of equity returns and whether or not this information is a systematic risk factor. Several versions of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model predict that changes in aggregate volatility are priced into the cross-section of stock returns. Literature confirms that changes in expected future market volatility are priced into the cross-section of stock returns. Several of these studies use the VIX Index as proxy for future market volatility, and suggest that it is a risk factor. However, prior studies do not test whether asymmetric volatility affects if firm sensitivity to changes in VIX is related to risk, or is just a characteristic uniformly affecting all firms. The first chapter of my dissertation examines the asymmetric relation of stock returns and changes in VIX. The study finds that sensitivity to VIX innovations affects returns when volatility is rising, but not when it is falling. When VIX rises this sensitivity is a priced risk factor, but when it falls there is a positive impact on all stocks irrespective of VIX loadings. The second essay of my dissertation uses the second, third, and fourth moments of the risk-neutral density extracted from options on the S & P 500 as the proxy for changes in the expected future market return distribution rather than just the VIX index. The VIX index, while easily obtained, contains limited information due to its construction. The risk-neutral moments map one-to-one to the real-world volatility smile from market options, and contain all the information in the cross-section of market option moneyness and provide a richer proxy for changes in expected future market return distribution. The analyses find that positive change in risk-neutral skewness is a risk-factor and that change in risk-neutral kurtosis is not. The evidence for change in risk-neutral volatility being a risk factor, however, is ambiguous.
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0444536841
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 719
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Book Description
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author: Tao Huang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
We find a positive relationship between individual stocks' implied variance asymmetry, defined as the difference between upside and downside risk-neutral semivariances extracted from out-of-money options, and future stock returns. The high-minus-low hedge portfolio earns the excess return of 0.90% (0.67%) per month in equal-weighted (value-weighted) returns. We show that implied variance asymmetry provides a neat measure of risk-neutral skewness and outperforms the standard risk-neutral skewness in predicting the cross-section of future stock returns. Risk-based equilibrium asset pricing models can not explain such a positive relationship, which instead can be potentially explained by information asymmetry and informed trading.
Author: Matthew W. Sherwood
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351361910
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 319
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Book Description
This textbook provides the first holistic resource on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing for undergraduate and graduate programs. It provides a thorough background and history of ESG investing, as well as cutting-edge industry developments, in a way that introduces the reader to the rapidly developing field of responsible investing. Beginning with a comprehensive background of ESG investing and the development of models measuring risk and return, the book then discusses the development of ESG risks, and provides an overview of ESG rating systems. The textbook also outlines the current position of ESG investing in portfolio management through granular analysis, provides insight into common investor concerns about ESG investments, discloses qualitative theories relevant to ESG investing, and reviews literature attempting to model ESG investment performance. Finally, the authors provide readers with a foundation on the development of financial models measuring risk and return, which will be useful for measuring the performance of ESG investments. With case studies from contributors around the world, this textbook is the first of its kind to truly provide a compelling blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis supporting the incorporation of ESG investment strategies into investment portfolios. Offering an excellent overview of the growing trends in ESG investing, as well as a close analysis of ESG theories and their practical application both today and in the future, this book will be a great resource for both undergraduates and graduate students.
Author: Satyendra Kumar Sharma
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000935159
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 725
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Book Description
This book is a collection of selected high-quality research papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Evidence-Based Management (ICEBM) 2023, held at Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani, Rajasthan, India, during February 24–25, 2023. It has 76 chapters written by various scholars focusing on evidence-based management practices in different functional areas of management with the application of theory and empirical techniques. This book will be helpful to practitioners, academics, scholars, and policymakers.
Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470091401
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 864
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Book Description
In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781642418125
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Turan G. Bali
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
We examine the relation between expected future volatility (options' implied volatility) and the cross-section of expected returns. A trading strategy buying stocks in the highest implied volatility quintile and shorting stocks in the lowest implied volatility quintile generates insignificant returns. A similar strategy using one-month lagged realized volatility generates significantly negative returns. To investigate the differences and interactions between alternative measures of total risk, we estimate three principal components based on realized volatility, call implied and put implied volatility. Long-short trading strategies generate significant returns only for the second and the third principal components. We find that the second principal component is related to the realized-implied volatility spread which can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. We find that the third principal component is related to the call-put implied volatility spread that reflects future price increase of the underlying stock.
