Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries PDF Download
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Author: Leonardo Iania
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We study the effect of oil price shocks on bond risk premia. Based on Baumeister and Hamilton (2019), we identify the different sources of oil price shocks using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global market for crude oil. These structural factors are then used as unspanned factors in an affine term structure model based on the representation of Joslin et al. (2014). This is done for a total of 15 countries. Bond risk premia of net oil-exporting countries show a reaction to the structural shocks which is often statistically significant and in line with the expectation. For oil-importing developed countries, mainly the reaction to economic activity shocks is statistically significant and with the expected sign. The results for oil-importing developing countries are most of the time not statistically significant or run counter what one would expect. Among the unspanned factors, global economic activity explains most of the variability in bond risk premia. Finally, a historical decomposition around the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis shows a variety of patterns in the evolution of bond risk premia.
Author: Leonardo Iania
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We study the effect of oil price shocks on bond risk premia. Based on Baumeister and Hamilton (2019), we identify the different sources of oil price shocks using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global market for crude oil. These structural factors are then used as unspanned factors in an affine term structure model based on the representation of Joslin et al. (2014). This is done for a total of 15 countries. Bond risk premia of net oil-exporting countries show a reaction to the structural shocks which is often statistically significant and in line with the expectation. For oil-importing developed countries, mainly the reaction to economic activity shocks is statistically significant and with the expected sign. The results for oil-importing developing countries are most of the time not statistically significant or run counter what one would expect. Among the unspanned factors, global economic activity explains most of the variability in bond risk premia. Finally, a historical decomposition around the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis shows a variety of patterns in the evolution of bond risk premia.
Author: Ron Alquist
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
"We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/08 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns"--Abstract, page ii.
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513590766
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Author: Roger Fouquet
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 0857933698
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 753
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Book Description
ÔSome of us have spent our professional lives on energy and climate change but any new researcher or policy maker must find it daunting to even approach the subject. If so, this encyclopedic Handbook provides a wonderful and necessary introduction. It is creative and up to date, yet also takes the reader by the hand and introduces one topic after another while also providing much of the historical context that is so necessary to a deeper understanding.Õ Ð Thomas Sterner, Environmental Defense Fund This timely Handbook reviews many key issues in the economics of energy and climate change, raising new questions and offering solutions that might help to minimize the threat of energy-induced climate change. Constructed around the objectives of displaying some of the best of current thinking in the economics of energy and climate change, this groundbreaking volume brings together many of the worldÕs leading and most innovative minds in the field to cover issues related to: ¥ fossil fuel and electricity markets ¥ environment-related energy policy ¥ international climate agreements ¥ carbon mitigation policies ¥ low carbon behaviour, growth and governance. Serving as an indispensable guide to one of the fastest growing fields of economics, this invaluable resource will strongly appeal to students, academics and policy makers interested in energy, environmental and climate change issues.
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226092127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
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Book Description
Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Ms.Anastasia Guscina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498310680
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
International bond issuance by debut issuers has risen in recent years. The uptick was a result of both demand and supply factors. The search for yield and demand for portfolio diversification have resulted in demand-driven easy financing conditions. At the same time, rising financing needs for many debut issuers, coupled with reduced access to concessional financing, relatively undeveloped domestic markets, and a favorable interest rate environment have made international bonds an attractive financing alternative for many countries. As bonds issued in the international markets are typically denominated in hard currencies, have large volumes and a bullet structure, exposure to exchange rate and refinancing risk has increased. Therefore, risk-mitigating policy actions are needed to prepare for redemption, support debt sustainability, and secure adequate debt management capacity.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498363288
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 135
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Book Description
The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319790757
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 300
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Book Description
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
