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Author: Janine Aron
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreclosure
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
In the absence of micro-data in the public domain, new aggregate models for the UK's mortgage repossessions and arrears are estimated using quarterly data over 1983-2014, motivated by a conceptual double trigger frame framework for foreclosures and payment delinquencies. An innovation to improve on the flawed but widespread use of loan-to-value measures, is to estimate difficult-to-observe variations in loan quality and access to refinancing, and shifts in lenders' forbearance policy, by common latent variables in a system of equations for arrears and repossessions. We introduce, for the first time in the literature, a theory-justified estimate of the proportion of mortgages in negative equity as a key driver of aggregate repossessions and arrears. This is based on an average debt-equity ratio, corrected for regional deviations, and uses a functional form for the distribution of the debt-equity ratio checked on Irish micro-data from the Bank of Ireland, and Bank of England snapshots of negative equity. We systematically address serious measurement bias in the "months-in-arrears" measures, neglected in previous UK studies. Highly significant effects on aggregate rates of repossessions and arrears are found for the aggregate debt-service ratio, the proportion of mortgages in negative equity and the unemployment rate. Economic forecast scenarios to 2020 highlight risks faced by the UK and its mortgage lenders, illustrating the usefulness of the approach for bank stress-testing. For macroeconomics, our model traces an important part of the financial accelerator: the feedback from the housing market to bad loans and hence banks' ability to extend credit.
Author: Janine Aron
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreclosure
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
In the absence of micro-data in the public domain, new aggregate models for the UK's mortgage repossessions and arrears are estimated using quarterly data over 1983-2014, motivated by a conceptual double trigger frame framework for foreclosures and payment delinquencies. An innovation to improve on the flawed but widespread use of loan-to-value measures, is to estimate difficult-to-observe variations in loan quality and access to refinancing, and shifts in lenders' forbearance policy, by common latent variables in a system of equations for arrears and repossessions. We introduce, for the first time in the literature, a theory-justified estimate of the proportion of mortgages in negative equity as a key driver of aggregate repossessions and arrears. This is based on an average debt-equity ratio, corrected for regional deviations, and uses a functional form for the distribution of the debt-equity ratio checked on Irish micro-data from the Bank of Ireland, and Bank of England snapshots of negative equity. We systematically address serious measurement bias in the "months-in-arrears" measures, neglected in previous UK studies. Highly significant effects on aggregate rates of repossessions and arrears are found for the aggregate debt-service ratio, the proportion of mortgages in negative equity and the unemployment rate. Economic forecast scenarios to 2020 highlight risks faced by the UK and its mortgage lenders, illustrating the usefulness of the approach for bank stress-testing. For macroeconomics, our model traces an important part of the financial accelerator: the feedback from the housing market to bad loans and hence banks' ability to extend credit.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Janine Aron
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 81
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Book Description
Author: Josh Ryan-Collins
Publisher: Zed Books Ltd.
ISBN: 1786991217
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 306
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Book Description
Why are house prices in many advanced economies rising faster than incomes? Why isn’t land and location taught or seen as important in modern economics? What is the relationship between the financial system and land? In this accessible but provocative guide to the economics of land and housing, the authors reveal how many of the key challenges facing modern economies - including housing crises, financial instability and growing inequalities - are intimately tied to the land economy. Looking at the ways in which discussions of land have been routinely excluded from both housing policy and economic theory, the authors show that in order to tackle these increasingly pressing issues a major rethink by both politicians and economists is required.
Author: Martin Chick
Publisher: An Economic and Social History of Britain
ISBN: 0199552789
Category : Great Britain
Languages : en
Pages : 455
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Book Description
This is a study of how, and why, the British economy has changed since 1951. It covers the Golden Age of 1945-1973 when unemployment was below one million; when governments built millions of council houses and flats; when electricity, telephones, and gas were supplied by nationalised monopolies; when income and wealth inequality were narrowing; and when the UK was not a member of the European Economic Community. Moving through the inflation, rising unemployment, and rapid contraction of the manufacturing industry from the mid- 1970s, Changing Times examines the transfer of assets which was effected in the privatisation of public housing and nationalised industries from the early 1980s. The role of the State changed as public investment fell. The financing of old-age care, of state pensions, and of the National Health Service became of increasing concern and were less politically amenable to the approach of using private finance (the Private Finance Initiative and tuition fees) to fund former public obligations. Changes were made to the system of taxation, but public expenditure changed little as a share of national income, although the government now built little. Difficulties emerged in ensuring adequate housing for a growing population, and uncertainty grew as to where future investment in necessities like electricity supply would come from. Having narrowed in the Golden Age, inequality of income and wealth widened. Environmental concerns also grew, from the local smogs of the 1950s, through the concern with acid rain from the 1960s, to the current global concern with climate change. The financial crash of 2008 and the decision to 'Brexit' in the referendum of 2016 reduced economic growth and highlighted the extent of economic change since 1951. This is a study of that change.
Author: Jacob S. Hacker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190844167
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 308
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Book Description
On the eve of the financial crisis, Jacob S. Hacker wrote "the policy book of the year" (E.J. Dionne, Jr., Washington Post), demonstrating and explaining the hidden story of growing economic insecurity. In this fully revised and updated second edition, he brings his powerful exposé of "The Great Risk Shift" up to date with startling new evidence and compelling new ideas. Hacker shows that the safety net was unraveling long before the late-2000s, as more and more economic risk shifted from the broad shoulders of government and business onto the fragile backs of American families. Whether the problem is risky jobs brought on by corporate restructuring and the "gig economy" of contingent work, risky families created by the rising costs and instabilities of parenthood, risky retirement caused by the collapse of traditional guaranteed pensions, or risky health care fueled by skyrocketing costs and unstable coverage-Hacker shows what has changed and why, the ways in which ordinary Americans have been affected, and how we can fight back. Behind the risk shift, he contends, is the "Personal Responsibility Crusade" eagerly embraced by corporate leaders and conservative politicians who speak of an economic nirvana in which Americans are free to choose. But the result, Hacker reveals, has been very different: a harsh new world of economic insecurity in which far too many Americans are allowed to fall behind. Blending powerful human stories, big-picture analysis, and compelling ideas for reform, this remarkable volume has become a rallying point in the struggle for economic security in an increasingly uncertain world.
Author: Markus Moos
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1788116518
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
Housing is one of the most pertinent issues of our time. Shaped by rapid urbanization, financialization, and various changes in demography, technology, political ideology and public policy, the provision of affordable, adequate, and suitable housing has become an increasingly challenging feat. From high-rise apartment towers constructed in global cities around the world to informal settlements rapidly expanding across the global south, this volume focuses on how political, economic, and societal changes are shaping housing in a variety of contexts.
Author: Jaroslav Pavlicek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The internet has become the primary source of information for most of the population in modern economies, and as such, it provides an enormous amount of readily available data. Among these are the data on the internet search queries, which have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking sector as well as for governments and regulators. Here, we provide new insights into the dynamics of the UK mortgage market, specifically the demand for mortgages measured by new mortgage approvals, and whether or how models of this market can be improved by incorporating the online searches of potential mortgage applicants. Because online searches are expected to be one of the last steps before a customer's actual application for a large share of the population, intuitive utility is an appealing approach. We compare two baseline models - an autoregressive model and a structural model with relevant macroeconomic variables - with their extensions utilizing online searches on Google. We find that the extended models better explain the number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance.
Author: Josh Ryan-Collins
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1509523294
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
Throughout the Western world, a whole generation is being priced out of the housing market. For millions of people, particularly millennials, the basic goal of acquiring decent, affordable accommodation is a distant dream. Leading economist Josh Ryan-Collins argues that to understand this crisis, we must examine a crucial paradox at the heart of modern capitalism. The interaction of private home ownership and a lightly regulated commercial banking system leads to a feedback cycle. Unlimited credit and money flows into an inherently finite supply of property, which causes rising house prices, declining home ownership, rising inequality and debt, stagnant growth and financial instability. Radical reforms are needed to break the cycle. This engaging and topical book will be essential reading for anyone who wants to understand why they can’t find an affordable home, and what we can do about it.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance
Languages : en
Pages :
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