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Author: Taronne Harris Pearson Tabucchi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 254
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Book Description
The purpose of this thesis is to develop a discrete event simulation model of post-earthquake restoration for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) water supply system. Discrete event simulation, a new approach to modeling post-disaster lifeline restoration, offers many benefits for restoration modeling compared to alternative methods. The water supply system and restoration process are represented in great detail with few simplifications. The utility company's decision variables (e.g., number of repair crews, repair prioritization rules) are included explicitly, allowing exploration of their effects on the speed of the restoration. Restoration times are estimated separately for each region within the service area, and uncertainty in the process is modeled explicitly. With a service area of more than 1,200 km2 and 12,000 km of pipelines, the LADWP water supply system is the largest municipal system in the United States. Extensive review of the LADWP water organization, water supply system, and postearthquake restoration process was conducted. This review provided the basis for the restoration model. Crews, tasks, and the different phases in the restoration process came directly from discussions with LADWP personnel and the water organization's emergency response plans. For a particular earthquake, the restoration model takes as input information about damage to the system and the resulting hydraulic flow, both of which are provided by the Graphical Iterative Response Analysis for Flow Following Earthquakes (GIRAFFE) model that was developed for the LADWP system (Shi 2006, Wang 2006). Throughout the restoration simulation, the model interacts with GIRAFFE periodically in order to receive updates of the system functionality at specific times as the restoration process proceeds and damage is repaired. The restoration model provides several different types of output including system and subregion restoration curves; spatial distribution of restoration; material usage; crew usage; average time each customer is without water; and time to restore the system and subregions to 90%, 98%, and 100%. It can also include damage uncertainty by combining the output from runs for multiple realizations of damage associated with a single earthquake. The model can be used to help estimate economic and societal losses due to water supply system outages, and to evaluate the effectiveness of possible restoration improvement strategies. Ten simulations of the restoration model were run using real damage data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake as input, and the results were compared to the actual restoration that took place following Northridge. The average spatial distribution of restoration roughly matches what occurred in 1994. As in real life, the areas experiencing longer outages in the model are mainly in the north of the system service area or around the San Fernando Valley. The system restoration curves did not match exactly, as the range of outputs from all 10 runs of the restoration model shows that the restoration occurs too quickly, especially during the first day after the earthquake. Possible future model modifications that may improve the calibration are discussed. (Abstract).
Author: Taronne Harris Pearson Tabucchi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 254
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Book Description
The purpose of this thesis is to develop a discrete event simulation model of post-earthquake restoration for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) water supply system. Discrete event simulation, a new approach to modeling post-disaster lifeline restoration, offers many benefits for restoration modeling compared to alternative methods. The water supply system and restoration process are represented in great detail with few simplifications. The utility company's decision variables (e.g., number of repair crews, repair prioritization rules) are included explicitly, allowing exploration of their effects on the speed of the restoration. Restoration times are estimated separately for each region within the service area, and uncertainty in the process is modeled explicitly. With a service area of more than 1,200 km2 and 12,000 km of pipelines, the LADWP water supply system is the largest municipal system in the United States. Extensive review of the LADWP water organization, water supply system, and postearthquake restoration process was conducted. This review provided the basis for the restoration model. Crews, tasks, and the different phases in the restoration process came directly from discussions with LADWP personnel and the water organization's emergency response plans. For a particular earthquake, the restoration model takes as input information about damage to the system and the resulting hydraulic flow, both of which are provided by the Graphical Iterative Response Analysis for Flow Following Earthquakes (GIRAFFE) model that was developed for the LADWP system (Shi 2006, Wang 2006). Throughout the restoration simulation, the model interacts with GIRAFFE periodically in order to receive updates of the system functionality at specific times as the restoration process proceeds and damage is repaired. The restoration model provides several different types of output including system and subregion restoration curves; spatial distribution of restoration; material usage; crew usage; average time each customer is without water; and time to restore the system and subregions to 90%, 98%, and 100%. It can also include damage uncertainty by combining the output from runs for multiple realizations of damage associated with a single earthquake. The model can be used to help estimate economic and societal losses due to water supply system outages, and to evaluate the effectiveness of possible restoration improvement strategies. Ten simulations of the restoration model were run using real damage data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake as input, and the results were compared to the actual restoration that took place following Northridge. The average spatial distribution of restoration roughly matches what occurred in 1994. As in real life, the areas experiencing longer outages in the model are mainly in the north of the system service area or around the San Fernando Valley. The system restoration curves did not match exactly, as the range of outputs from all 10 runs of the restoration model shows that the restoration occurs too quickly, especially during the first day after the earthquake. Possible future model modifications that may improve the calibration are discussed. (Abstract).
Author: Taronne H. P. Tabucchi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Earthquakes
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781109385779
Category : Earthquakes
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The purpose of this thesis is to calibrate and apply a discrete event simulation model of post-earthquake restoration for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) water supply system. Based on extensive collaboration with LADWP engineers and managers, the model mimics the real-life restoration process in detail, simulating the movement of different types of crews as they inspect, reroute around, isolate, and repair system damage. The model is run using historic damage and system data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Results for the calibration simulations suggest the model is capable of accurately estimating the time and spatial sequence of the restoration. The model is applied to estimate durations of post-earthquake water supply outages in Los Angeles for five possible earthquakes. The analysis suggests that earthquakes on different faults can cause significant variability in damage as well as the duration of the loss of service. Finally, the model is used to evaluate the effectiveness of key post-earthquake water supply restoration strategies that the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) plans to use following a major earthquake. The strategies are: (1) maximizing the groundwater pumped into the system, (2) reconnecting some reservoirs that have been removed from the system due to water quality concerns, (3) rationing water use, and (4) all three. For each of five realistic earthquake scenarios the restoration with and without implementation of the key restoration strategies are compared. The results suggest that opening the reservoirs and rationing are effective post-earthquake restoration strategies that would help to minimize the water outages.
Author: Zehra Cagnan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Earthquake relief
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
Author: Peixin Shi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Water quality management
Languages : en
Pages : 358
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Book Description
Author: Agam Tomar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 146
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Book Description
Water distribution systems are vital to the well-being of communities because they contribute to the functionality of all other infrastructure and lifeline systems. Earthquakes and other natural hazards can cause damage to the components of a water distribution system, causing far-reaching socioeconomic consequences. This research begins with the development of an end-to-end simulation framework to model post-earthquake functional loss and restoration of a water system, which encompasses seismic hazard characterization, component damage assessment, hydraulic performance evaluation, and network restoration modeling. The modeling framework is validated using data from the 2014 South Napa Earthquake and extended to a hypothetical scenario. The end-to-end simulation framework is then extended to consider stochastic event set assessments of the water network using the UCERF2 (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2) earthquake rupture forecast model. Given that the end-to-end performance evaluation of distributed infrastructure for a large set of events is computationally expensive, a framework that uses Active learning to select a subset of ground motion maps and associated occurrence rates that reasonably estimates the water network risk is also developed. To deal with the temporal complexities that are embedded in the post-earthquake restoration process, a dynamic updating methodology is developed to reduce uncertainties in the outcomes of post-event recovery forecasts using Bayesian Inferencing, by exploiting real-time data. The specific example of updating predictions (post-earthquake functional recovery forecasts including total recovery time and complete recovery trajectory) is presented and validated on a real pipe network (Napa water system) and event (2014 earthquake and recovery). Ultimately, the frameworks and models developed as part of this work can inform risk-based decision making and resilience planning of water networks and other lifeline systems.
Author: Amanda Lynn Bonneau
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Emergency water supply
Languages : en
Pages : 260
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Book Description
Author: Zheng Lu
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3039214012
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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Book Description
There are many regions worldwide which are susceptible to extreme loads such as earthquakes. These can cause loss of life and adverse impacts on civil infrastructures, the environment, and communities. A series of methods and measures have been used to mitigate the effects of these extreme loads. The adopted approaches and methods must enable civil structures to be resilient and sustainable. Therefore, to reduce damage and downtime in addition to protecting life and promoting safety, new resilient structure technologies must be proposed and developed. This special issue book focuses on methods of enhancing the sustainability and resilience of civil infrastructures in the event of extreme loads (e.g., earthquakes). This book contributes proposals of and theoretical, numerical, and experimental research on new and resilient civil structures and their structural performance under extreme loading events. These works will certainly play a significant role in promoting the application of new recoverable structures. Moreover, this book also introduces some case studies discussing the implementation of low-damage structural systems in buildings as well as articles on the development of design philosophies and performance criteria for resilient buildings and new sustainable communities.
Author: Yu Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Water quality management
Languages : en
Pages : 414
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Book Description
Author: Dr. Mohamed E. El-Hawary
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119308968
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 328
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Book Description
A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.
