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Author: Ryan James Schultz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Earthquakes are known to be caused by anthropogenic sources: wastewater injection, hydraulic fracturing, mining, geothermal operations, and underground storage. Induced events have been large enough to cause loss of life and significant economic losses. In many cases, induced seismicity is one of the major technical hurdles for resource development. In fact, concerns around the risks posed by these operations have been great enough to end operations. In this thesis, I develop a risk-based approach to manage the risks of induced earthquakes by informing the threshold for stopping an operation (i.e., the red-light). Due to the complexity of this issue, multiple concepts were developed to begin addressing it. Within this thesis, I provide a review of short-term induced seismicity cases (i.e., hydraulic fracturing & enhanced geothermal systems), describe common themes relevant for risk management, describe current shortcomings, develop tools/concepts to address these shortcomings, and then incorporate these concepts/themes together into a risk-based framework. In addition, we provided links to the codes and papers developed to address this issue. Overall, the concepts here begin building a framework for the management of induced seismicity risks -- to strike the right balance between public safety and orderly development of resources.
Author: Ryan James Schultz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Earthquakes are known to be caused by anthropogenic sources: wastewater injection, hydraulic fracturing, mining, geothermal operations, and underground storage. Induced events have been large enough to cause loss of life and significant economic losses. In many cases, induced seismicity is one of the major technical hurdles for resource development. In fact, concerns around the risks posed by these operations have been great enough to end operations. In this thesis, I develop a risk-based approach to manage the risks of induced earthquakes by informing the threshold for stopping an operation (i.e., the red-light). Due to the complexity of this issue, multiple concepts were developed to begin addressing it. Within this thesis, I provide a review of short-term induced seismicity cases (i.e., hydraulic fracturing & enhanced geothermal systems), describe common themes relevant for risk management, describe current shortcomings, develop tools/concepts to address these shortcomings, and then incorporate these concepts/themes together into a risk-based framework. In addition, we provided links to the codes and papers developed to address this issue. Overall, the concepts here begin building a framework for the management of induced seismicity risks -- to strike the right balance between public safety and orderly development of resources.
Author: Mark D. Zoback
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107087074
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 495
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Book Description
A comprehensive overview of the key geologic, geomechanical and engineering principles that govern the development of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs. Covering hydrocarbon-bearing formations, horizontal drilling, reservoir seismology and environmental impacts, this is an invaluable resource for geologists, geophysicists and reservoir engineers.
Author: Ganyu Teng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Earthquakes could be caused by various human activities, including mining, withdrawal and injection of fluids underground, and impoundment of reservoirs. They have attracted the public's attention in the last decade due to the increasing number of earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. The increasing induced seismicity emphasizes the importance of hazard assessment to assist risk management and decision-making during the operation. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been widely used to quantify the hazard for natural earthquakes. However, its assumption of Poissonian occurrence is not valid for induced seismicity where the earthquake occurrence varies significantly in time and space due to human activities. This dissertation aims to capture and quantify the changing hazard for induced seismicity, focusing on the short-term felt shaking hazard. The declustered earthquake catalog is often used as the input for probabilistic hazard analysis models. We first evaluate four of the most popular declustering algorithms for annual induced seismic hazard analysis in Oklahoma and Kansas. We show that the choice of different declustering algorithms has significant impacts on the induced seismic hazard analysis. The algorithm by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) removes so many earthquakes that it fails to reflect the changing seismic hazard in the Oklahoma-Kansas region in the past few years. We suggest that algorithms by Reasenberg (1985) and Zaliapin and Ben-Zion (2013) can both capture the changing hazard level in the region while removing dependent earthquakes. This dissertation then introduces two frameworks to quantify short-term hazards for regions with induced seismicity, focusing on hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes in West Texas and wastewater-disposal-induced earthquakes in the Oklahoma-Kansas region. These induced earthquakes differ significantly, so two separate frameworks are developed. For hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes, we develop a method to estimate the hazard level at the production site during the injection, based on past injection and earthquake records. We compare the above frameworks with natural earthquakes and conclude that drivers of short-term seismic hazard vary for different seismicities. For hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes in West Texas, earthquakes clustered around the injection wells dominate the short-term hazard level at production sites. For wastewater-disposal-induced earthquakes, the Poissonian mainshock rate contributes significantly to the short-term hazard level. For natural earthquakes, the aftershock sequences could be crucial. The hazard analysis for hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes shows that small-magnitude earthquakes are important for the felt shaking hazard. Thus, we evaluate the performance of two existing intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for small-magnitude earthquakes at close distances and explore the impact of those earthquakes on felt shaking hazard based on "Did You Feel It (DYFI)" reports and ground motion records in the central U.S. We first compare the DYFI data with ground motion records to ensure that the former is a robust and reliable source to evaluate IPEs. Compared with IPEs, we observe that DYFI reports' intensities attenuate faster, especially for hypocentral distances beyond 10 km. Though the two IPEs do not consider soil conditions, we also explore its effect on intensities and observe that intensities at soft sites are consistently higher than intensities at stiff sites. We then generate a new IPE based on the observed data and perform hazard disaggregation to study the importance of small-magnitude earthquakes on felt shaking. Small magnitude earthquakes at close distances contribute significantly to the hazard of felt shaking. We quantify the seismic hazard after shut-in for hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes. We explore different statistical models to describe the post-shut-in seismicity according to induced earthquakes in Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas. While the seismicity usually declines after shut-in, there are cases where the seismicity surges after shut-in. We then conduct hazard assessments with and without considering post-shut-in seismicity. Results show that the post-shut-in hazard could impact decision-making significantly. We also propose a logic tree model to consider the uncertainty in model parameters and the possibility of increasing post-shut-in seismicity.
Author: Jörn H. Kruhl
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319680447
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 335
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Book Description
This book addresses earthquakes, with a special focus on the Ghorka earthquake, which struck parts of central Nepal in April 2015. Drawing on this disastrous event, it closely examines various aspects of earthquakes in contributions prepared by international experts. The topics covered include: the geological and geophysical background of seismicity; a detailed inventory of the damage done by the earthquake; effective damage prevention through earthquake-safe buildings and settlements; restoration options for world-heritage buildings; strategies for providing technical and medical relief and, lastly, questions associated with public life and economy in a high-risk seismic zone. Combining perspectives from various fields, the book presents the state of the art in all earthquake-related fields and outlines future approaches to risk identification, damage prevention, and disaster management in all parts of society, administration, and politics in Nepal. Beyond the specific disaster in Nepal, the findings presented here will have broader implications for how societies can best deal with disasters.
Author: Alik Ismail-Zadeh
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107033861
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 431
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Book Description
A unique interdisciplinary approach to disaster risk research, including global hazards and case-studies, for researchers, graduate students and professionals.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309253705
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
In the past several years, some energy technologies that inject or extract fluid from the Earth, such as oil and gas development and geothermal energy development, have been found or suspected to cause seismic events, drawing heightened public attention. Although only a very small fraction of injection and extraction activities among the hundreds of thousands of energy development sites in the United States have induced seismicity at levels noticeable to the public, understanding the potential for inducing felt seismic events and for limiting their occurrence and impacts is desirable for state and federal agencies, industry, and the public at large. To better understand, limit, and respond to induced seismic events, work is needed to build robust prediction models, to assess potential hazards, and to help relevant agencies coordinate to address them. Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies identifies gaps in knowledge and research needed to advance the understanding of induced seismicity; identify gaps in induced seismic hazard assessment methodologies and the research to close those gaps; and assess options for steps toward best practices with regard to energy development and induced seismicity potential.
Author: Francesco Grigoli
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889744337
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 173
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309165032
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 196
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Book Description
Improved Seismic Monitoringâ€"Improved Decision-Making, describes and assesses the varied economic benefits potentially derived from modernizing and expanding seismic monitoring activities in the United States. These benefits include more effective loss avoidance regulations and strategies, improved understanding of earthquake processes, better engineering design, more effective hazard mitigation strategies, and improved emergency response and recovery. The economic principles that must be applied to determine potential benefits are reviewed and the report concludes that although there is insufficient information available at present to fully quantify all the potential benefits, the annual dollar costs for improved seismic monitoring are in the tens of millions and the potential annual dollar benefits are in the hundreds of millions.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Book Description
This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.
Author: F. Mulargia
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401000417
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
What is the first thing that ordinary people, for whom journalists are the proxy, ask when they meet a seismologist? It is certainly nothing technical like "What was the stress drop of the last earthquake in the Imperial Valley?" It is a sim ple question, which nevertheless summarizes the real demands that society has for seismology. This question is "Can you predict earthquakes?" Regrettably, notwithstanding the feeling of omnipotence induced by modem technology, the answer at present is the very opposite of "Yes, of course". The primary motivation for the question "Can you predict earthquakes?" is practical. No other natural phenomenon has the tremendous destructive power of a large earthquake, a power which is rivaled only by a large scale war. An earth quake in a highly industrialized region is capable of adversely affecting the econ omy of the whole world for several years. But another motivation is cognitive. The aim of science is 'understanding' nature, and one of the best ways to show that we understand a phenomenon is the ability to make accurate predictions.
