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Author: Stephen Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
We examine the influence of the ex ante risk of class action securities litigation on firms' decisions to issue management earnings forecasts as well as the characteristics of those forecasts. We find that litigation risk is positively associated with the likelihood of issuing a forecast for both good- and bad-news firms. While the association is marginally stronger for firms with bad earnings news, our results suggest that litigation risk is unlikely to explain the observed preponderance of bad-news forecasts. We examine the effect of litigation risk on the amount of the total earnings news released in the forecast, on forecast horizon, and on forecast precision. These results indicate that higher litigation risk is associated with a higher proportion of news being released when firms have bad news. Finally, higher litigation risk is associated with forecasts being released earlier and being more precise.
Author: Stephen Brown
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
We examine the influence of the ex ante risk of class action securities litigation on firms' decisions to issue management earnings forecasts as well as the characteristics of those forecasts. We find that litigation risk is positively associated with the likelihood of issuing a forecast for both good- and bad-news firms. While the association is marginally stronger for firms with bad earnings news, our results suggest that litigation risk is unlikely to explain the observed preponderance of bad-news forecasts. We examine the effect of litigation risk on the amount of the total earnings news released in the forecast, on forecast horizon, and on forecast precision. These results indicate that higher litigation risk is associated with a higher proportion of news being released when firms have bad news. Finally, higher litigation risk is associated with forecasts being released earlier and being more precise.
Author: Zhiyan Cao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
We examine the effect of litigation risk on management's decision to issue earnings forecasts. We use a new ex ante measure of litigation risk, namely, the Directors and Officers liability insurance premium. This measure bypasses significant problems associated with the estimation of ex ante litigation risk in prior studies. By using this measure of litigation risk, our results are more intuitive. We find that, when faced with ex ante litigation risk, managers with bad news are more likely to issue an earnings warning. For good news firms, we do not see this effect. We also examine three forecast characteristics: forecast horizon, extent of news revealed, and forecast precision. Firms with higher litigation risk tend to issue earnings forecasts earlier if they have bad news, but this is not so when they have good news. They also reveal less news in the forecasts if they have good news. As litigation risk increases, bad news earnings forecasts tend to become more precise while good news earnings forecasts tend to become less precise. This differential effect of litigation risk on management earnings forecasts, based on the direction of the news, has not been documented by previous studies.
Author: William A. Powley
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
I examine the link between changes in the disclosure behavior of firms and changes in ex ante litigation risk as proxied by changes in the firms' director and officer insurance premiums. I find evidence that there is a negative link between the voluntary disclosure of bad news and ex ante litigation risk. I find no evidence of a statistically significant link between the voluntary disclosure of good news and ex ante litigation risk.
Author: Helen Hurwitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
It appears that litigation risk in the pre-RegFD period is not sufficient to affect management forecasting behavior, and my findings only exist in the post-RegFD period. Last, I present evidence that is consistent with investors correctly perceiving and responding to the relative bias in bad new and good news management forecasts.
Author: Joel F. Houston
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
This paper documents that changes in litigation risk affect corporate voluntary disclosure practices. We make causal inferences by exploiting three legal events that generate exogenous variations in firms' litigation risk. Using a matching-based, fixed-effect difference-indifferences design, we find that the treated firms tend to make fewer (more) management earnings forecasts relative to the control firms when they expect litigation risk to be lower (higher) following the legal event. The results are concentrated on the earnings forecasts conveying negative news and are robust to alternative specifications, samples and outcome variables.
Author: Haiyan Jiang
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study examines the effects of the economic cycle on the properties of management earnings forecasts. Using management forecast data from First Call and the NBER business cycle measure, we document that economic recession is positively associated with forecast frequency and forecast error while is negatively related to forecast precision. We also analyse the effect of managerial incentives during recession, and find that litigation risk negatively affects forecast frequency and forecast error, but the effect of another incentive, capital market transactions, is not consistent across specifications. Our findings provide a broader perspective for assessing the determinants of management earnings forecasts.
Author: Paul Hribar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Prior accounting research uses the width of management range forecasts as a measure of managers' uncertainty about future earnings. However, range forecasts do not provide any information about the likelihood that future earnings will fall within the forecast bounds. The absence of information about forecast confidence is important because without an explicit or implicit confidence level, the width of the range does not necessarily convey information about the uncertainty of future earnings realizations. In this study, we develop a measure of the confidence levels associated with management range forecasts, referred to as implied confidence. We find our measure varies positively with ex-post confidence levels and that it outperforms the use of forecast width and analyst dispersion when predicting the likelihood that realized earnings fall within the forecasted range. Importantly, after controlling for implied confidence, the conditional association between width and ex-post hit rate changes from positive to negative, consistent with the use of forecast width as a proxy for manager-specific uncertainty. We consider several possible determinants of confidence levels and find that managers issue range forecasts with higher confidence levels when they face higher litigation risk and have a longer forecasting history.
Author: Jae B. Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
This study examines the effect of accounting flexibility on managers' forecasting behavior prior to seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Although SEO firms have a strong incentive to convey optimistic information to boost the pre-SEO stock price, they also face enhanced litigation risk arising from SEO-related regulations. Thus, I hypothesize that managers will release positive news through their forecasts (relative to the prevailing analyst consensus) prior to an SEO only if they have the accounting flexibility to manage subsequent reported earnings to meet or exceed their forecasts. I find that managers with greater accounting flexibility are more likely to issue a forecast prior to the SEO and that their forecasts are more likely to convey positive news and are more specific. Furthermore, I find no effect of accounting flexibility for non-SEO control firms or for non-SEO periods. My results suggest that when managers experience a tension between the incentive for voluntary disclosure and high litigation risk, accounting flexibility is an important factor that determines their forecasting behavior.
Author: Dawn A. Matsumoto
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Recent reports in the popular press allege that managers guide analysts' forecasts downward to improve their chances of meeting or beating these forecasts when earnings are announced. Since the majority of this alleged guidance is unobservable, I use systematic patterns in analysts' forecast errors as a proxy for firm-provided guidance and examine both the change in guidance over time as well as the characteristics of firms exhibiting evidence of this guidance. The evidence is consistent with an increase in firm-provided guidance in recent years and differences across firms in the propensity to guide forecasts downward. In particular, I find: 1) an increasing number of forecast errors exactly equal to zero particularly for firms with initially high forecasts; 2) when firms miss analysts' expectations at the earnings announcement, the proportion that miss quot;highquot; (positive earnings surprise) versus miss quot;lowquot; (negative earnings surprise) has increased in recent years particularly for firms with initially high forecasts; 3) firms with higher growth prospects, higher institutional ownership, and higher litigation risk are more likely to guide analysts' forecasts downward to ensure reported earnings meet expectations at the earnings announcement, while firms with low value relevance of earnings are less likely to do so; and 4) firms with high institutional ownership and reliance on implicit claims with their stakeholders tend to exceed rather than fall short of expectations at the earnings announcement.
Author: Helen Hurwitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This study examines whether managers understate large negative earnings news in annual forecasts that are generally issued early when limited earnings information of the fiscal year is publicly available. I find that management forecasts of annual earnings conveying relatively large negative earnings news are systematically optimistic, and it is more (less) pronounced for firms with greater litigation risk or financial distress (net insider sale). The results suggest that fear of immediate lawsuits or job loss instead of trading opportunism motivates managers to understate large negative earnings news to mitigate immediate significantly negative consequences. I also provide evidence consistent with the market not identifying the bias in managers' annual earnings guidance. This study has important implications for market participants relying on annual management forecasts to form earnings expectations early in the fiscal year and for regulators attempting to balance the quality and quantity of management guidance.
