Macroeconomic News 'surprises' and the Rand/dollar Exchange PDF Download
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Author: Johannes W. Fedderke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Current events
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
"Economic theory in the context of floating exchange rates has focussed on underlying medium and long term direction of exchange rate movements. Daily volatility is less well understood. One theory that offers an explanation for short term exchange rate movements is that of the efficient market hypothesis or EMH. Its application to the forex market allows exchange rate movements to be understood as the reaction of traders to relevant news. In an efficient market traders react to news and specifically to surprise news events which necessitate a re-evaluation of the currency value. We test for the validity of this hypothesis in the context of the daily rand/dollar forex market over a three year period, adding an emerging market case to the literature. We test the significance of macroeconomic news surprises -measured by the difference between actual and forecast data - in driving daily exchange rates. We find that surprises in both real and nominal variables cause a statistically significant reaction in the exchange rate. The results support an asymmetry between news of different origin as only surprises that originate in the U.S. prove significant. Good news also seems to receive greater attention from traders than bad news in our sample. Finally, we find that the statistical significance of variables is time-varying"--Publisher's website.
Author: Johannes W. Fedderke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Current events
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
"Economic theory in the context of floating exchange rates has focussed on underlying medium and long term direction of exchange rate movements. Daily volatility is less well understood. One theory that offers an explanation for short term exchange rate movements is that of the efficient market hypothesis or EMH. Its application to the forex market allows exchange rate movements to be understood as the reaction of traders to relevant news. In an efficient market traders react to news and specifically to surprise news events which necessitate a re-evaluation of the currency value. We test for the validity of this hypothesis in the context of the daily rand/dollar forex market over a three year period, adding an emerging market case to the literature. We test the significance of macroeconomic news surprises -measured by the difference between actual and forecast data - in driving daily exchange rates. We find that surprises in both real and nominal variables cause a statistically significant reaction in the exchange rate. The results support an asymmetry between news of different origin as only surprises that originate in the U.S. prove significant. Good news also seems to receive greater attention from traders than bad news in our sample. Finally, we find that the statistical significance of variables is time-varying"--Publisher's website.
Author: Nasha Maveé
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475545592
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand / U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises—the difference between market expectations and data prints—are captured by Citi’s Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China.
Author: Nasha Maveé
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises - the difference between market expectations and data prints - are captured by Citi's Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China.
Author: Walid Ben Omrane
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper addresses the central open issue in exchange rate economics: the link between exchange rate volatility and economic fundamentals. In the framework of a multivariate volatility model that allows for volatility spillover, we develop a new impulse response analysis to estimate and decompose the simultaneous effect of macroeconomic news surprises on the foreign exchange volatility. We show that news announcement effects include two components; a direct and an indirect effect induced by volatility spillover. We show that more than 50% of the total accumulated news effect on the Pound and the Yen are due to volatility transmission from the two major currencies and mainly from the Euro.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 820
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher: ScholarlyEditions
ISBN: 1464921075
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 593
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Book Description
Economics: Advances in Research and Application: 2011 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ eBook that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Economics and Organizations. The editors have built Economics: Advances in Research and Application: 2011 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Economics and Organizations in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Economics: Advances in Research and Application: 2011 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: Andrew Scobell
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 1977404200
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 155
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Book Description
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
Author: National Defense University (U S )
Publisher: Government Printing Office
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132
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Book Description
On August 24-25, 2010, the National Defense University held a conference titled “Economic Security: Neglected Dimension of National Security?” to explore the economic element of national power. This special collection of selected papers from the conference represents the view of several keynote speakers and participants in six panel discussions. It explores the complexity surrounding this subject and examines the major elements that, interacting as a system, define the economic component of national security.
Author: Miroslav Mateev
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030329224
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 316
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Book Description
The book presents high-quality research papers presented at the 2nd American University in the Emirates International research conference, AUEIRC'18, organized by the American University in the Emirates, Dubai, held on November 13th-15th, 2018. The book is broadly divided into four sections: Sustainability and Smart Technology, Sustainability and Social Responsibility, Sustainability, Human Security and Legislation, Sustainability and Education. The topics covered under these sections are sustainable smart technology such as developing green curriculum for information technology, use ultrasonic velocity to predict quality of wheat, improve security features for visa system, factors affecting the cost of production of electricity and desalination plants, impact of smart traffic sensing in smart cities, smart healthcare system, simulation of Grey wolf optimization algorithm in painting digital forensics. The topics covered for sustainability and creative industries such as sustainable concrete production, multimedia applications in digital transformation art, integrating biomimicry principles in sustainable architecture. Sustainability, human security and legislation covered topics of urban performance and sustainable environment, Eco-certification as response on climate change, the criminal offence of tax evasion in law: case study, skills engineering in sustainable counter defense against Cyber extremism, the international law and challenges of trans-boundary water resources governance, the legal status of nuclear energy: case study, sustainable energy development and nuclear energy legislation in UAE, corruption specific safety challenge, environmental management and sustainability, sustainable farming models for desert agro-ecosystems, future directions of climate change, earth and built environment towards new concept of sustainability, institution building from emotional intelligence perspective, virtue ethics, technology and sustainability, the role of humor in a sustainable education, HEIs practices and strategic decisions toward planning for sustainable education programs, TQM in higher education for sustainable future. The papers in this book present high-quality original research work, findings and practical development experiences.
