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Author: Jan Wenzelburger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540380507
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 181
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Book Description
Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.
Author: Jan Wenzelburger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540380507
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 181
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Book Description
Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.
Author: George W. Evans
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400824265
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 440
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Book Description
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Author: Cars Hommes
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110701929X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, applies complexity modelling to economics and finance.
Author: Abraham C.-L. Chian
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540397531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 109
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Book Description
Statistical analysis of stock markets and foreign exchange markets has demonstrated the intermittent nature of economic time series. A nonlinear model of business cycles is able to simulate intermittency arising from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles, which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor and responsible for economic intermittency.
Author: Cars Hommes
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139619780
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
Author: Robin Pope
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 354038474X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory.
Author: Jaroslav Zajac
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540326952
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
This book analyzes the existence of equilibria in economies having a measured space of agents and a continuum of agents and commodities. Excessive homogeneity with respect to agent productivity leads to instability and non-uniqueness of a given stationary state and the indeterminacy of the corresponding stationary state equilibrium. Sufficient heterogeneity leads to global saddle-path stability, uniqueness of a given stationary state and the global uniqueness of the corresponding equilibrium.
Author: Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540686649
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Book Description
This work uses various model frameworks to study the evolution of equilibria in an open loop evolving economy in which the model characteristics evolve without any directional restrictions except for continuity. Applying mathematical methods, it is shown that equilibria can always be adapted in a piecewise gradual, non bang-bang way.
Author: Don Grundel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540482717
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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Book Description
Because of the clearly important role cooperative systems play in areas such as military sciences, biology, communications, robotics, and economics, just to name a few, the study of cooperative systems has intensified. This book provides an insight in the basic understanding of cooperative systems as well as in theory, modeling, and applications of cooperative control, optimization and related problems.
Author: Dieter Sondermann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540348379
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Although there are many textbooks on stochastic calculus applied to finance, this volume earns its place with a pedagogical approach. The text presents a quick (but by no means "dirty") road to the tools required for advanced finance in continuous time, including option pricing by martingale methods, term structure models in a HJM-framework and the Libor market model. The reader should be familiar with elementary real analysis and basic probability theory.
