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Author: Devraj Basu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper introduces an international asset pricing model with time-varying risk premia. It augments the two factor model which has the return on the world index and trade weighted exchange rates as factors, with skewness and kurtosis factors. This leads to a stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and has time-varying factor loadings that are functions of global variables. We test this model on market indices, size and momentum sorted portfolios that are formed from stocks listed in G8 countries, as well as country-neutral size, book-to-market and momentum portfolios. Overall, the model is capable of pricing almost all sets of base assets unconditionally using only global predictive variables. It also explains much of the cross sectional variation of the country, size and momentum portfolios, and also achieves much of the substantial size and momentum premiums. The role of time-varying risk premiums that are functions of global variables is crucial to the performance of the model, particularly in the case of the exchange rate factor.
Author: Devraj Basu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper introduces an international asset pricing model with time-varying risk premia. It augments the two factor model which has the return on the world index and trade weighted exchange rates as factors, with skewness and kurtosis factors. This leads to a stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and has time-varying factor loadings that are functions of global variables. We test this model on market indices, size and momentum sorted portfolios that are formed from stocks listed in G8 countries, as well as country-neutral size, book-to-market and momentum portfolios. Overall, the model is capable of pricing almost all sets of base assets unconditionally using only global predictive variables. It also explains much of the cross sectional variation of the country, size and momentum portfolios, and also achieves much of the substantial size and momentum premiums. The role of time-varying risk premiums that are functions of global variables is crucial to the performance of the model, particularly in the case of the exchange rate factor.
Author: Chu-Sheng Tai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
One of the puzzles in international finance literature is the deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP). In this paper, I further examine the validity of the risk premia hypothesis in explaining this puzzle by testing a conditional international CAPM (ICAPM) in the absence of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) using data from both foreign exchange and equity markets in Asia-Pacific countries. When considering foreign exchange markets only, I find that conditional variances are not related to the deviations from UIP in any statistical sense based on an univariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. However, as I consider both foreign exchange and equity markets together and test the conditional ICAPM in the absence of PPP, I can not reject the model based on the J-test by Hansen (Econometrica 50 (1982), 1029-1054), and find significant time-varying market and foreign exchange risk premia presented in the data. This empirical evidence supports the notion of time-varying risk premia in explaining the deviations from UIP. It also supports the idea that the foreign exchange risk is not diversifiable and hence should be priced in both markets.Key Words: International asset pricing, Uncovered interest parity, Time-varying risk premium, GARCH, GMM.
Author: Giorgio De Santis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author:
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3663085287
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : de
Pages : 306
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Book Description
Implementing unconditional as well as conditional beta pricing models, the author identifies global economic factors that affect the performance of international investments.
Author: Tom Arild Fearnley
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 69
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Book Description
The paper tests a conditional multivariate International Capital Asset Pricing Model for US, Japanese and European stocks and government bonds, covering the period 1993-2001. Time variation in the prices of market and currency risk is modelled by means of synchronous regime switching. The paper also explores the statistical significance and time variation of asset specific intercept terms, again using synchronous regime switching. The prices of risk are found to be highly time varying. The price of market risk is statistically significant, and the international CAPM risk premia are validated, although currency risk premia are not statistically significant. However, the intercept terms are typically large and significant, implying an overall rejection of the international CAPM, and suggesting that additional, unidentified pricing factors contribute to return expectations.
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1933019158
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 117
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Book Description
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Author: Bernard Dumas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital assets pricing model
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
We consider a world capital market in which the investor population is heterogenous. Investors of different countries differ in the prices of goods at which they consume the income from their investments. In such a setting, the international CAPM incorporates rewards for exchange rate risk, in addition to the traditional reward for market-covariance risk. The aim of the paper is to determine whether these additional risk premia empirically playa significant role in the pricing of securities. The test being conducted is a test of a conditional version of the CAPM. It builds on the recent empirical literature which points out that stock market returns may, to some extent, be predicted on the basis of a number of instrumental variables, such as interest rates and dividend yields. All previous tests of the international CAPM with exchange risk premia have been tests of the unconditional version and have been inconclusive.
Author: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145194196X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the presence of risk premium in commodity futures markets. The statistical tests are derived from a formal model of asset pricing and are applied to futures prices in a variety of commodity markets. The results suggest that for several commodities there is evidence of a time varying risk premium, particularly in futures contracts maturing six months ahead. The implications of the study for the efficiency of the futures markets and the costs of using these markets for hedging are also noted.
Author: Giorgio De Santis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We test the conditional CAPM for the world's eight largest equity markets using a parsimonious GARCH parameterization. Our methodology can be applied simultaneously to many assets and, at the same time, accommodate general dynamics of the conditional moments. The evidence supports most of the pricing restrictions of the model, but some of the variation in risk-adjusted excess returns remains predictable during periods of high interest rates. Our estimates indicate that, although severe market declines are contagious, the expected gains from international diversification for a U.S. investor average 2.11% per year and have not significantly declined over the last two decades.
Author: Peter N. Smith
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital investments
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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