Implications of the Cash Component of Earnings for Earnings Persistence and Stock Returns PDF Download
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Author: Panayotis Artikis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The main objective of this paper is to examine the persistence, pricing and economic significance of the cash component of earnings in U.K. listed firms from 1981 to 2013. In so doing, we break down the cash component of earnings into changes in the cash balance and into issuances/distributions to debtholders and equity holders. We find that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component and that this higher persistence can be attributed primarily to cash distributed to equity holders. Cash retained by the firm as changes in the cash balance also appears to be more persistent than accruals, whereas cash attributed to debtholders has approximately the same persistence level as accruals. The results from our pricing models support the naïve investor hypothesis and show both that future stock returns have the strongest positive correlation with the most persistent cash subcomponent of earnings and that investors can devise a profitable investment strategy by investing in companies that have high cash distributions to equity holders. Our results are consistent across subperiods - when controlling for changes in financial reporting standards and the economic environment - and across different size groupings.
Author: Panayotis Artikis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The main objective of this paper is to examine the persistence, pricing and economic significance of the cash component of earnings in U.K. listed firms from 1981 to 2013. In so doing, we break down the cash component of earnings into changes in the cash balance and into issuances/distributions to debtholders and equity holders. We find that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component and that this higher persistence can be attributed primarily to cash distributed to equity holders. Cash retained by the firm as changes in the cash balance also appears to be more persistent than accruals, whereas cash attributed to debtholders has approximately the same persistence level as accruals. The results from our pricing models support the naïve investor hypothesis and show both that future stock returns have the strongest positive correlation with the most persistent cash subcomponent of earnings and that investors can devise a profitable investment strategy by investing in companies that have high cash distributions to equity holders. Our results are consistent across subperiods - when controlling for changes in financial reporting standards and the economic environment - and across different size groupings.
Author: Patricia Dechow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
Prior research shows that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component of earnings. We investigate whether the persistence of the cash component is influenced by management's decision to retain or distribute cash flows. We find that when firms retain the cash flows, the cash component has low persistence almost identical to that of accruals. Only when the cash flows are distributed to equity holders does the cash component have high persistence. We investigate whether investors understand the differential implications of each use of cash flows for future earnings. Inconsistent with a naiuml;ve fixation on earnings, we find that investors correctly price cash flows relating to equity and debt distributions. However, we find that retained cash flows are mispriced in a similar manner to accruals. Our results are consistent with a combination of investors misunderstanding diminishing marginal returns to new investments and/or over-investment. Our results also suggest that discounted free cash flows valuation models should explicitly forecast retained cash flows.
Author: Patricia M. Fairfield
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
An important goal of accounting research is to provide evidence that improves the analysis of financial statements for predicting future profitability. Research (Sloan 1996; Xie 2001) has found that (1) the persistence of earnings performance depends on the proportions of the cash and accrual components and that (2) a market inefficiency results from the failure of investors to fully appreciate the implications of cash flows and accruals for future earnings performance. In this study we investigate whether these results with respect to accruals can be generalized to another form of growth in net operating assets. We find that growth in long-term net operating assets, like accruals, has a negative association with one-year-ahead return on assets. We also find that the negative associations of both forms of growth (accruals and growth in long-term net operating assets) to one-year-ahead return on assets are attributable to the effect of growth on the denominator of return on assets. Furthermore, we find that the apparent market mispricing of accruals applies to growth in long-term net operating assets and that the severity of the mispricing does not significantly differ between the components of growth. Thus, the results suggest that the accrual anomaly documented in Sloan (1996) is a subset of a larger anomaly with respect to a general market mispricing of growth in net operating assets. Statement Analysis, Market Mispricing.
Author: George A. Papanastasopoulos
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We examine the informational content of retained and distributed earnings for future profitability and stock returns. We find that investors act as if the components of retained earnings (current operating accruals, non current operating accruals and retained cash flows) have similar implications for future profitability, leading to an overvaluation of their differential persistence. It also appears that while they cannot distinguish between the distinct properties of distributed earnings, they correctly anticipate the persistence of net cash distributions to debt holders (net debt repayment) but underestimate the persistence of net cash distributions to equity holders (dividends minus net stock issues). Overall, our evidence suggests that the accrual anomaly documented in the accounting literature and the anomaly on net stock issues documented in the finance literature could be a subset of a larger anomaly on retained earnings.
Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226531929
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Author: T. Daniel Coggin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781883249519
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
Applied Equity Valuation provides comprehensive coverage of the theory and practice of all aspects of valuation, including security valuation in a complex market, bottom-up approach to small capitalization active management, top down/thematic equity management, implementing an integrated quantitative investment process, applying the DDM, value-based equity strategies, market-neutral portfolio management, enhanced indexing, dynamic style allocation, and exploiting global equity pricing anomalies.
Author: Kai Wai Hui
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Economic theory suggests that the industry-wide component of firm performance is more persistent than the firm-specific component. This paper provides evidence on this assertion and tests whether investors misprice these components of earnings. Consistent with predictions, we find greater persistence in the industry-wide component of earnings that is not fully recognized in stock prices. We show that these effects are partially driven by the market's inability to recognize the differential persistence of industry-wide earnings in homogenous industries or in the presence of a large business shock. Finally, we show that industry-wide cash flows is the most persistent component of earnings while firm-specific accruals is the least persistent, suggesting that economic fundamentals and accounting constructs are jointly informative about firms' future earnings. The market predictably misprices these components, however, significantly underweighting the persistence of industry-wide cash flows and overweighting the persistence of firm-specific accruals.
Author: Andreas Fagereng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484370066
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 69
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Book Description
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Author: AICPA
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1945498870
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 800
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Book Description
Updated for new accounting and auditing guidance issued, this valuable tool provides hundreds of high quality disclosure examples from carefully selected U.S. companies of different sizes, across industries such as banking, credit and insurance, communication services, and healthcare from such organizations as Scotts Miracle-Gro, Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, and BB&T. Illustrations of the most important, immediate, and challenging disclosures, such as derivatives and hedging, consolidations, and fair value measurement are provided. Hot topics include statement of cash flows, going concern, and business combinations and intangibles. This edition also provides clear, direct guidance to help you understand and comply with all significant reporting requirements and detailed indexes to help you quickly find exactly what you need.
Author: Ramesh Narayana Chari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
This research investigates whether financial analysts fully incorporate the information contained in accrual and cash flow components of current earnings when forecasting future earnings. I present evidence that analysts fail to fully incorporate the implications of these components for earnings persistence in their forecasts. Analysts' appear to ignore information in past earnings to a greater extent when the magnitude of accruals in prior year earnings is large relative to cash flows. I find that information in these components can be used to improve analysts' forecasts. This improvement is most evident for firms which have a high incidence of accruals in prior year earnings. I demonstrate the economic significance of improving analysts' forecasts by implementing a trading strategy that predicts stock price changes. This trading strategy yields significantly positive risk-adjusted abnormal returns. These results suggest that analysts' forecasting inefficiency (see Mendenhall, 1991) is potentially rooted in their misperceptions about the implications of accruals and cash flows for earnings persistence. These findings are useful to accounting standard-setters and to capital markets research that uses analysts' forecasts to proxy for earnings expectations.
