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Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484356241
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
We study the history of terms-of-trade booms (during 1970–2012), with a focus on Latin America, through the prisms of a simple metric that quantifies the associated income windfall. We also document saving patterns during these episodes and propose a measure of how much of the income windfall was saved. We find that Latin America‘s terms-of-trade shocks of the last decade have not differed much in magnitude from those observed during the 1970s, but that the associated windfall have been substantially larger. While aggregate saving increased more than in past episodes, the share of the windfall saved (the marginal saving rate) seems to be lower, suggesting that greater aggregate saving reflects mainly the sheer size of the windfall rather than a greater 'effort' to save it. Finally, we find evidence that, while savings during the boom help to increase post-boom income, the composition of such savings matters. Specifically, in past episodes, savings allocated to foreign asset accumulation appear to have contributed more to post-boom income than those devoted to domestic investment.
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484356241
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
We study the history of terms-of-trade booms (during 1970–2012), with a focus on Latin America, through the prisms of a simple metric that quantifies the associated income windfall. We also document saving patterns during these episodes and propose a measure of how much of the income windfall was saved. We find that Latin America‘s terms-of-trade shocks of the last decade have not differed much in magnitude from those observed during the 1970s, but that the associated windfall have been substantially larger. While aggregate saving increased more than in past episodes, the share of the windfall saved (the marginal saving rate) seems to be lower, suggesting that greater aggregate saving reflects mainly the sheer size of the windfall rather than a greater 'effort' to save it. Finally, we find evidence that, while savings during the boom help to increase post-boom income, the composition of such savings matters. Specifically, in past episodes, savings allocated to foreign asset accumulation appear to have contributed more to post-boom income than those devoted to domestic investment.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498395147
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 73
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Book Description
KEY ISSUES Context. Colombia’s economic performance has been robust, underpinned by a very strong policy framework. Last year, real GDP grew by 4.3 percent, with low inflation. The country has a strong external position; the financial system is sound; and fiscal policy remains guided by a structural fiscal balance rule. The authorities intend to undertake an ambitious infrastructure program to be executed through public-private partnerships. Outlook and risks. Real GDP growth is projected to converge to potential (about 41⁄2 percent) in 2014, with inflation remaining within the 2–4 percent target range. The medium-term outlook is favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside. Colombia’s important and growing ties with the global economy expose the economy to external risks. The most important sources of risk are a decline in oil prices, a deterioration in global financial conditions, and volatility from the normalization of monetary policy in the U.S. Near-term policy mix. The current policy mix is broadly adequate. As the ongoing economic recovery takes hold, monetary and fiscal policies are expected to shift to a more neutral stance. Colombia continues to rely on a flexible exchange rate to absorb external shocks. The authorities are also taking advantage of abundant foreign inflows, primarily foreign direct investment, to strengthen their international reserve buffer. Medium-term challenges. Colombia’s key challenge is to sustain strong and inclusive growth with macroeconomic stability. To this purpose, it will be important to: (i) adhere to the fiscal consolidation plan, supporting it with revenue mobilization; (ii) address the infrastructure gap, without increasing fiscal risks; (iii) enhance the social security system by increasing coverage and improving equity, and containing health care costs; (iv) address remaining weaknesses in financial sector supervision; and (v) foster financial inclusion.
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475578482
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about 1⁄2 of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484394607
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru’s economy continues to be a leader in high growth and low inflation in the region, which has been achieved through a prudent macroeconomic policy implementation, a far-reaching structural reform agenda and taking advantage of the benign external environment. After reaching 4.7 percent in 2011, end-period inflation fell to 2.6 percent in 2012, within the 1–3 percent target range. Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies played an instrumental role in supporting the recovery. The outlook remains favorable in the near term despite challenging external conditions.
Author: Ms.Dora M. Iakova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498328164
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.
Author: Paul Krugman
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262610957
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 298
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Book Description
Over the past decade, a small group of economists has challenged traditional wisdom about international trade. Rethinking International Trade provides a coherent account of this research program and traces the key steps in an exciting new trade theory that offers, among other possibilities, new arguments against free trade. Over the past decade a small group of economists has challenged traditional wisdom about international trade. Rethinking International Trade provides a coherent account of this research program and traces the key steps in an exciting new trade theory that offers, among other possibilities, new arguments against free trade. Krugman's introduction is a valuable guide to research that has delved anew into the causes of international trade and reopened basic questions about the international pattern of specialization, the effects of protectionism, and what constitutes an optimal trade policy. In the four sections that follow, he takes a revisionary look at the causes of international trade, and discusses growth and the role of history, technological change and trade, and strategic trade policy.
Author: Aqib Aslam
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498338216
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.
Author: Bertrand Gruss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484330773
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
Author: Mr.Francisco Roch
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484323882
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.
Author: Jeffrey G. Williamson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262518597
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 315
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Book Description
How the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps explain the income gap between rich and poor countries today. Today's wide economic gap between the postindustrial countries of the West and the poorer countries of the third world is not new. Fifty years ago, the world economic order—two hundred years in the making—was already characterized by a vast difference in per capita income between rich and poor countries and by the fact that poor countries exported commodities (agricultural or mineral products) while rich countries exported manufactured products. In Trade and Poverty, leading economic historian Jeffrey G. Williamson traces the great divergence between the third world and the West to this nexus of trade, commodity specialization, and poverty. Analyzing the role of specialization, de-industrialization, and commodity price volatility with econometrics and case studies of India, Ottoman Turkey, and Mexico, Williamson demonstrates why the close correlation between trade and poverty emerged. Globalization and the great divergence were causally related, and thus the rise of globalization over the past two centuries helps account for the income gap between rich and poor countries today.
