Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?

Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All? PDF Author: Benjamin Beckers
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513524275
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32

Get Book Here

Book Description
We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.

Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?

Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All? PDF Author: Benjamin Beckers
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513524275
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32

Get Book Here

Book Description
We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.

Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs-One Model Fits All?.

Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs-One Model Fits All?. PDF Author: Benjamin; Beidas-Strom Samya Beckers
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513518039
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

Get Book Here

Book Description


Reliability and Statistical Computing

Reliability and Statistical Computing PDF Author: Hoang Pham
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030434125
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 325

Get Book Here

Book Description
This book presents the latest developments in both qualitative and quantitative computational methods for reliability and statistics, as well as their applications. Consisting of contributions from active researchers and experienced practitioners in the field, it fills the gap between theory and practice and explores new research challenges in reliability and statistical computing. The book consists of 18 chapters. It covers (1) modeling in and methods for reliability computing, with chapters dedicated to predicted reliability modeling, optimal maintenance models, and mechanical reliability and safety analysis; (2) statistical computing methods, including machine learning techniques and deep learning approaches for sentiment analysis and recommendation systems; and (3) applications and case studies, such as modeling innovation paths of European firms, aircraft components, bus safety analysis, performance prediction in textile finishing processes, and movie recommendation systems. Given its scope, the book will appeal to postgraduates, researchers, professors, scientists, and practitioners in a range of fields, including reliability engineering and management, maintenance engineering, quality management, statistics, computer science and engineering, mechanical engineering, business analytics, and data science.

Data-Driven Approaches for Effective Managerial Decision Making

Data-Driven Approaches for Effective Managerial Decision Making PDF Author: Anubha
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1668475707
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 354

Get Book Here

Book Description
In today’s competitive market, a manager must be able to look at data, understand it, analyze it, and then interpret it to design a smart business strategy. Big data is also a valuable source of information on how customers interact with firms through various mediums such as social media platforms, online reviews, and many more. The applications and uses of business analytics are numerous and must be further studied to ensure they are utilized appropriately. Data-Driven Approaches for Effective Managerial Decision Making investigates management concepts and applications using data analytics and outlines future research directions. The book also addresses contemporary advancements and innovations in the field of management. Covering key topics such as big data, business intelligence, and artificial intelligence, this reference work is ideal for managers, business owners, industry professionals, researchers, scholars, academicians, practitioners, instructors, and students.

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016 PDF Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484316495
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20

Get Book Here

Book Description
The IMF Research Bulletin includes listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The research summaries in this issue are “Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment” (Mathieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara, and Juliana Milovich) and “The Quest for Stability in the Housing Markets” (Hites Ahir). The Q&A column reviews “Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, and Andrew Berg). Also included in this issue are updates on the IMF’s official journal, the IMF Economic Review, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Commodity Prices and Markets PDF Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226386899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 346

Get Book Here

Book Description
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations PDF Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

Get Book Here

Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices

A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 76

Get Book Here

Book Description
This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Commodity Price Dynamics PDF Author: Craig Pirrong
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139501976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 239

Get Book Here

Book Description
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region

The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region PDF Author: Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513525905
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55

Get Book Here

Book Description
The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.