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Author: Sajjad Hossine
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668380651
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, , course: International Financial Management, language: English, abstract: The exchange rate on a daily basis is an indispensable factor in the foreign exchange market as well as in international trade. Many traders make a profit based on the pip in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, inflation and deflation of a currency against another currency is the root of making a profit in the foreign exchange market. Even in the international trade many individual traders and multi-national corporations always carefully observes the fluctuation of the exchange rate in order to determine the exchange rate efficiently and accurately. Because the more accurate the forecasted exchange rate is, the higher the chance becomes to make a profit only by investing a little amount of money in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate has also significant impact on the export, import, foreign direct investment etc. This paper pursues the goal to explain how an individual or an organization can formulate future exchange rate of any currency in an efficient and time effective way. To meet this demand, this paper utilizes the help of panel data and a regression model. As a sample, this paper considers USD/BDT for a forecast. It must be noted that, with different panel data of different currencies, the method will remain same if anyone wants to forecast exchange rates of different currencies.
Author: Sajjad Hossine
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668380651
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 9
Get Book
Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, , course: International Financial Management, language: English, abstract: The exchange rate on a daily basis is an indispensable factor in the foreign exchange market as well as in international trade. Many traders make a profit based on the pip in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, inflation and deflation of a currency against another currency is the root of making a profit in the foreign exchange market. Even in the international trade many individual traders and multi-national corporations always carefully observes the fluctuation of the exchange rate in order to determine the exchange rate efficiently and accurately. Because the more accurate the forecasted exchange rate is, the higher the chance becomes to make a profit only by investing a little amount of money in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate has also significant impact on the export, import, foreign direct investment etc. This paper pursues the goal to explain how an individual or an organization can formulate future exchange rate of any currency in an efficient and time effective way. To meet this demand, this paper utilizes the help of panel data and a regression model. As a sample, this paper considers USD/BDT for a forecast. It must be noted that, with different panel data of different currencies, the method will remain same if anyone wants to forecast exchange rates of different currencies.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451976364
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator” variables recently suggested by Federal Reserve officials. In this regard, a careful review of the relevant conceptual distinctions--concerning instruments, targets, indicators, etc.--is required. Finally, the proposal that strategy should be conducted so as to place minimal reliance on quantity variables is given attention, in the context of evidence concerning the merits of an interest rate instrument.
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475729979
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 226
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Book Description
Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.
Author: Arif Orçun Söylemez
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000357317
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 83
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Book Description
Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.
Author: Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451978804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dynamic error correction framework leads to exchange rate forecasts which are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model.
Author: Michael Roy Rosenberg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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Book Description
This text explains the methods and aspects of exchange rate forecasting, including purchasing power, parity, interest rate differentials and technical analysis. Guidelines for reducing risk with forecasting strategies are included, as are techniques for co
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134838220
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 334
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Book Description
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Author: Christian Dunis
Publisher: Irwin Professional Publishing
ISBN: 9781557381002
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 356
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Book Description
Author: Jessica James
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118445775
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 674
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Book Description
Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513512105
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
"We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.
