Food Price Surges, Trade Policy Responses, and the Welfare Implications to Tanzanian Households PDF Download
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Author: Kentaro Murayama
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780355495621
Category : Exports
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
The first essay tests the effectiveness of export bans as a price insulation policy using panel data of local maize prices across 35 markets in 7 countries (Tanzania and its neighboring countries of Burundi, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia). While the data have a relatively high rate of missing values, I use a multiple imputation method to utilize as much of the available information as possible for the analysis. Using an extended competitive storage model, I analyze the dynamics of local maize prices and test the effect of export bans. Not only I reject the null hypothesis of no impact of export bans on local maize prices, but I find that the export ban is associated with higher maize prices. In other words, an implementation of export ban induces higher prices due to the speculative demand instead of keeping the price low through the increased availability at the local market. Moreover, the impact of the export ban is conditional on the existence and magnitude of trade costs: with a high trade cost, the trade flow would not exist prior to an export ban and the ban would not binding. I find that the upward pressure of the export ban on local prices would be underestimated, if such non-binding cases are not taken into account. The second essay estimates a large-scale demand system of foods, and assesses the impact of price changes on food consumption and nutrition consumption patterns of Tanzanian households. Malnutrition is a widespread issue in Tanzania. For securing a sufficient supply of food, particularly grains, price policies such as subsidies or protective trade measures are exercised in Tanzania and many of its neighboring countries. However, evidence on the effectiveness of price policies for improving nutritional intakes are mixed. In the literature, studies on nutrient consumption are particularly scarce, and the roles of income and socioeconomic characteristics is often investigated separately from price responsiveness of food consumption. I assess the price responsiveness of foods and their associated nutritional intakes by estimating a flexible demand system - Exact Affine Stone Index demand system to overcome the limitation of alternative demand systems - using Tanzanian living standard surveys. Using the estimated elasticities, I find that the price of maize is not very influential to the caloric intakes even among very poor households due to these households' high capability to substitute foods and secure the level of energy intake. However, in exchange, intakes of other nutrients are greatly reduced when the maize price increases, due to the major role of maize as a relatively cheap source of calories and other nutrients. Evaluated at the historical maize price changes from 2007-2008, simulations indicate a small decline in the average energy intakes. However, the decreases in average micronutrient intakes are large and the deficiency incidence rises significantly. The third essay extends the framework of the second essay by incorporating the production of foods in households and the general equilibrium effects of food price changes to the wage, assessing the overall welfare changes. Many households in Tanzania are both consumers and producers of food crops. Higher food prices increase the real income of such households, and thus have a potential to significantly reduce the loss or even realize a net gain. In addition, higher prices of agricultural goods - or, in general, traded goods - may increase the demand for labor as the production level is increased. This higher demand, in turn, would increase the return to the wage, under a set of certain assumptions. This general equilibrium effect of food prices to the wage level is evaluated empirically using the living standard survey of Tanzania. Using the estimated price-wage elasticities and the data of budget and income shares, I assess the average welfare impact of the historical maize price increase across sub-populations of households. I find that the net effect through consumption, production, and wage earnings are, on average, positive for all the household across income levels. However, the net gains are much stronger for wealthier households and almost negligibly small for poorer households because of the dominantly strong gain from the wage earning increases compared with the smaller gains from production net consumption. Moreover, I identify the rural and/or farm households experience disproportional net loss, for significantly higher reliance on maize in consumption, compared with urban and/or non-farm households. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).
Author: Kentaro Murayama
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780355495621
Category : Exports
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Get Book Here
Book Description
The first essay tests the effectiveness of export bans as a price insulation policy using panel data of local maize prices across 35 markets in 7 countries (Tanzania and its neighboring countries of Burundi, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia). While the data have a relatively high rate of missing values, I use a multiple imputation method to utilize as much of the available information as possible for the analysis. Using an extended competitive storage model, I analyze the dynamics of local maize prices and test the effect of export bans. Not only I reject the null hypothesis of no impact of export bans on local maize prices, but I find that the export ban is associated with higher maize prices. In other words, an implementation of export ban induces higher prices due to the speculative demand instead of keeping the price low through the increased availability at the local market. Moreover, the impact of the export ban is conditional on the existence and magnitude of trade costs: with a high trade cost, the trade flow would not exist prior to an export ban and the ban would not binding. I find that the upward pressure of the export ban on local prices would be underestimated, if such non-binding cases are not taken into account. The second essay estimates a large-scale demand system of foods, and assesses the impact of price changes on food consumption and nutrition consumption patterns of Tanzanian households. Malnutrition is a widespread issue in Tanzania. For securing a sufficient supply of food, particularly grains, price policies such as subsidies or protective trade measures are exercised in Tanzania and many of its neighboring countries. However, evidence on the effectiveness of price policies for improving nutritional intakes are mixed. In the literature, studies on nutrient consumption are particularly scarce, and the roles of income and socioeconomic characteristics is often investigated separately from price responsiveness of food consumption. I assess the price responsiveness of foods and their associated nutritional intakes by estimating a flexible demand system - Exact Affine Stone Index demand system to overcome the limitation of alternative demand systems - using Tanzanian living standard surveys. Using the estimated elasticities, I find that the price of maize is not very influential to the caloric intakes even among very poor households due to these households' high capability to substitute foods and secure the level of energy intake. However, in exchange, intakes of other nutrients are greatly reduced when the maize price increases, due to the major role of maize as a relatively cheap source of calories and other nutrients. Evaluated at the historical maize price changes from 2007-2008, simulations indicate a small decline in the average energy intakes. However, the decreases in average micronutrient intakes are large and the deficiency incidence rises significantly. The third essay extends the framework of the second essay by incorporating the production of foods in households and the general equilibrium effects of food price changes to the wage, assessing the overall welfare changes. Many households in Tanzania are both consumers and producers of food crops. Higher food prices increase the real income of such households, and thus have a potential to significantly reduce the loss or even realize a net gain. In addition, higher prices of agricultural goods - or, in general, traded goods - may increase the demand for labor as the production level is increased. This higher demand, in turn, would increase the return to the wage, under a set of certain assumptions. This general equilibrium effect of food prices to the wage level is evaluated empirically using the living standard survey of Tanzania. Using the estimated price-wage elasticities and the data of budget and income shares, I assess the average welfare impact of the historical maize price increase across sub-populations of households. I find that the net effect through consumption, production, and wage earnings are, on average, positive for all the household across income levels. However, the net gains are much stronger for wealthier households and almost negligibly small for poorer households because of the dominantly strong gain from the wage earning increases compared with the smaller gains from production net consumption. Moreover, I identify the rural and/or farm households experience disproportional net loss, for significantly higher reliance on maize in consumption, compared with urban and/or non-farm households. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).
Author: S??bastien Dessus
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of commodity price inflation in Tanzania and possible tax policy responses in the short, medium, and long term. The results suggest that global commodity inflation since 2006 may have had a significantly negative impact on all Tanzanian households. Most of the negative impact comes from the rise in the price of oil. In contrast, food price spikes are potentially welfare improving for all Tanzanian households in the medium to long run. In comparison with nonpoor households, poor households in Tanzania may be relatively shielded from global commodity inflation because they derive a larger share of their incomes from agricultural activity and consume less oil-intensive products. Finally, the results suggest that tax policies encouraging greater agricultural production and consumption may help to reduce poverty. In contrast, policies discouraging agricultural production (such as export bans) bear the risk of increasing poverty in the long run. However, such policies would only effect at the margin (in one direction or the other) the likely impact of global commodity inflation on poverty.
Author: Sebastien Dessus
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of commodity price inflation in Tanzania and possible tax policy responses in the short, medium, and long term. The results suggest that global commodity inflation since 2006 may have had a significantly negative impact on all Tanzanian households. Most of the negative impact comes from the rise in the price of oil. In contrast, food price spikes are potentially welfare improving for all Tanzanian households in the medium to long run. In comparison with nonpoor households, poor households in Tanzania may be relatively shielded from global commodity inflation because they derive a larger share of their incomes from agricultural activity and consume less oil-intensive products. Finally, the results suggest that tax policies encouraging greater agricultural production and consumption may help to reduce poverty. In contrast, policies discouraging agricultural production (such as export bans) bear the risk of increasing poverty in the long run. However, such policies would only effect at the margin (in one direction or the other) the likely impact of global commodity inflation on poverty.
Author: Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319282018
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 620
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Book Description
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Author: Amare, Mulubrhan
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households' experience of food insecurity by 12 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 13 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food insecurity. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.
Author: David Dawe
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136530398
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 394
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Book Description
The recent escalation of world food prices – particularly for cereals - prompted mass public indignation and demonstrations in many countries, from the price of tortilla flour in Mexico to that of rice in the Philippines and pasta in Italy. The crisis has important implications for future government trade and food security policies, as countries re-evaluate their reliance on potentially more volatile world markets to augment domestic supplies of staple foods. This book examines how government policies caused and responded to soaring world prices in the particular case of rice, which is the world's most important source of calories for the poor. Comparable case studies of policy reactions in different countries, principally across Asia, but also including the USA, provide the understanding necessary to evaluate the impact of trade policy on the food security of poor farmers and consumers. They also provide important insights into the concerns of developing countries that are relevant for future international trade negotiations in key agricultural commodities. As a result, more appropriate policies can be put in place to ensure more stable food supplies in the future. Published with the Food and Agriculture (FAO) Organization of the United Nations
Author: Alexander Sarris
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1849806365
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 437
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Book Description
'As they often do, Jamie Morrison and Alexander Sarris have provided researchers, policy-makers, and the interested public with the firm empirical grounding needed for sound agricultural development policies. They have synthesized from a rich and varied set of country studies a unique contribution to one of the key challenges of our times increasing the productivity of smallholder food production in the age of globalization.' Timothy A. Wise, Tufts University, US 'Food security has been a major concern in Africa for decades, and a more pressing problem with recent increases in food prices. The editors and contributors to this volume are experts in the field and should be commended for a timely, informative and in places challenging analysis of food production and markets in eastern and southern Africa. The volume brings a refreshing variety of theoretical, analytical and informed case study approaches to bear on the food security problem; it should be read by anybody seriously interested in African development.' Oliver Morrissey, University of Nottingham, UK Drawing on insights from theoretical applications, empirically based approaches and case study experience, this book contributes to the improved design and use of trade and related policy interventions in staple food markets. Trade policy interventions have a potentially critical role to play in the development of staple food markets in developing countries and, as a source of revenue, in wider processes of rural development. Governments have long defended trade and related policy interventions in staple food markets on the basis of food security concerns. However, the design and implementation of these policies has often resulted in unintended impacts, increasing the risks faced by private sector actors and reducing their incentives for investment in improved market performance. In the context of increasingly volatile staple food markets, this book, commissioned from leading experts in this field, seeks to enhance dialogue between stakeholders involved in, and affected by, the design and use of trade and related policy interventions. This significant book will appeal to policy analysts and decision makers influential in the design and implementation of trade and related market interventions, as well as students of development economics. Researchers contributing to debates on the use and impacts of trade and related market interventions in staple food markets in poor countries will also find this volume of great benefit.
Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821347799
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 198
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Book Description
An investigation into the place of agriculture in the economy of Tanzania.
Author: Diao, Xinshen
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
Author: Adam Prakash
Publisher: Bright Sparks
ISBN:
Category : Food prices
Languages : en
Pages : 620
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Book Description
A timely publication as world leaders deliberate the causes of the latest bouts of food price volatility and search for solutions that address the recent velocity of financial, economic, political, demographic, and climatic change. As a collection compiled from a diverse group of economists, analysts, traders, institutions and policy formulators - comprising multiple methodologies and viewpoints - the book exposes the impact of volatility on global food security, with particular focus on the world's most vulnerable.
