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Author: Luis Molinas Sosa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108897924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
Author: Luis Molinas Sosa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108897924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
Author: Felipe Larraín B.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Reviews some empirical evidence on the recent performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements in emerging markets. Examines the concrete circumstances under which either polar regime should be adopted. Studies how to make flexibility work in practice, with special attention to inflation targets and alternativie monetary policy rules. Focuses on the possible role of capital controls as a complementary policy.
Author: Andrés Velasco
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
Abstract: In this paper I discuss some of the most important lessons on exchange rate policies in emerging markets during the last 35 years. The analysis is undertaken from the perspective of both the Latin American and East Asian nations. Some of the topics addressed include: the relationship between exchange rate regimes and growth, the costs of currency crises, the merits of â??dollarization, â?? the relation between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability, monetary independence under alternative exchange rate arrangements, and the effects of the recent global â??currency warsâ?? on exchange rates in commodity exporters.
Author: Steve Swidler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk-neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.
Author: Marek Dabrowski
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781402071508
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 328
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Book Description
Dabrowski (Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, Poland) presents eight comparative papers from a research project carried by his organization between October 1999 and September 2001. The papers examine theoretical models and causes of currency crises; discuss issues of crisis management and the contagion effect; and explore social and political consequences of currency crises. Also included are case studies of 1990s currency crises in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Russia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Annotation 2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).
Author: Michael I. C. Nwogugu
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030714195
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 594
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Book Description
Many emerging market countries are bank-based economies and are increasingly affected by geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar dynamics, regulations, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), MNCs (that often function like international organizations), social networks, labor dynamics, cross-border spillovers and the inefficient expansion of formal/informal microfinance. Country risks, informal economies (that account for 20-50 percent of the national economy of many emerging market countries), investor protection, enforcement commitment, compliance costs, sustainability (environmental, social, economic and political sustainability), economic growth, political stability, financial stability, geopolitical risk, social networks, household economics, inequality and international trade outcomes can vary dramatically across many DECs and LDECs due to these phenomena. The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the many problems inherent in political systems, economic policy and governments’ emergency powers during pandemics/epidemics and economic/financial crisis. This second volume focuses on geopolitical risks that are intertwined with constitutional political economy and labor issues, alongside addressing some of the financial and constitutional crises that occurred in Europe, Asia and the U.S. during 2007-2020. This book provides analysis of complex systems and the preferences and reasoning of state/government and corporate actors in order to develop better artificial intelligence and decision-system models of geopolitical risk, public policy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly important decision factors for investment managers, boards-of-directors and government officials.
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Author: Leonardo E. Stanley
Publisher: Anthem Press
ISBN: 1783086750
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 260
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Book Description
In the past, foreign shocks arrived to national economies mainly through trade channels, and transmissions of such shocks took time to come into effect. However, after capital globalization, shocks spread to markets almost immediately. Despite the increasing macroeconomic dangers that the situation generated at emerging markets in the South, nobody at the North was ready to acknowledge the pro-cyclicality of the financial system and the inner weakness of “decontrolled” financial innovations because they were enjoying from the “great moderation.” Monetary policy was primarily centered on price stability objectives, without considering the mounting credit and asset price booms being generated by market liquidity and the problems generated by this glut. Mainstream economists, in turn, were not majorly attracted in integrating financial factors in their models. External pressures on emerging market economies (EMEs) were not eliminated after 2008, but even increased as international capital flows augmented in relevance thereafter. Initially economic authorities accurately responded to the challenge, but unconventional monetary policies in the US began to create important spillovers in EMEs. Furthermore, in contrast to a previous surge in liquidity, funds were now transmitted to EMEs throughout the bond market. The perspective of an increase in US interest rates by the FED is generating a reversal of expectations and a sudden flight to quality. Emerging countries’ currencies began to experience higher volatility levels, and depreciation movements against a newly strong US dollar are also increasingly observed. Consequently, there are increasing doubts that the “unexpected” favorable outcome observed in most EMEs at the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) would remain.
Author: Peter Draper
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1848447299
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 299
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Book Description
. . . few if any other recent volumes offer a historical perspective on evolving trade policy in several countries, this well-written, well-edited volume. . . is suitable for graduate and research libraries. M. Larudee, Choice This book is a refreshing reminder of the benefits of unilateral trade liberalisation in countries whose leaders dare. An important story told with clarity and authority. Ross Garnaut, The Australian National University, Australia That trade liberalization is good for emerging market economies, and not just for the rich ones, is now widely accepted by both economists and policy-makers. But the question remains: how can these reforms be implemented in practice? The answer to that important question lies in understanding the political economy of each reforming country. This book makes a splendid contribution to our understanding of this issue by examining the experience of several countries. It is therefore an important book to be read by, not just students and researchers, but also policy-makers worldwide. Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia University, US This timely book brings fresh analysis to the important issue of trade policy reform in emerging markets. The subject matter and its significance are comprehensively introduced with a review of developing country liberalization since the 1980s providing an analytical framework for the seven country case studies that follow. The case studies (Australia, Brazil, Chile, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, and South Africa) cover a wide variety of political, historical and economic issues, but all make clear the important role that crisis, or the threat of it, plays in meaningful trade policy reform. This is of particular relevance in the current global financial crisis. These studies, together with the conclusions which are drawn from them, show how important the trade liberalization agenda remains in the 21st century. Written by a combination of both experts and practitioners, this highly topical book will make productive reading for policy makers concerned with trade policy in developed and developing countries, as well as scholars working in trade policy. Postgraduate students studying international business, international relations, economics, politics, and international law should not be without this book.
