Endogenous Volatility, Endogenous Growth, and Large Welfare Gains from Stabilization Policies PDF Download
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Author: Peng-fei Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Author: Peng-fei Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 30
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Pengfei Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
"This paper proposes a simple endogenous-fluctuations growth model to show: (1) long-run growth and short-run fluctuations can be intimately linked; in particular, the rate of long run growth can be negatively affected by volatilities; (2) imperfect competition can cause endogenous fluctuations, and it reduces not only the level of output but also its mean growth rate by amplifying the volatility of the economy; and (3) the welfare gain of stabilization policy can be enormous (e.g., as high as 25% of annual consumption when calibrated to the U.S. data) because policies designed to reduce sunspots-driven fluctuations can generate permanently higher rates of growth"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.
Author: Pengfei Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper constructs an endogenous growth model driven by self-fulfilling expectation shocks to explain the stylized fact that the average growth rate of GDP is related negatively to volatility and positively to capacity utilization. The implied welfare gain from further stabilizing the U.S. economy is about a quarter of annual consumption, which is consistent in order of magnitude with estimates based on the empirical studies of Ramey and Ramey (1995) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004). Hence, policies designed to reduce fluctuations can generate large welfare gains because smaller fluctuations are associated with permanently higher rates of growth.
Author: Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022612892X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 394
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Book Description
"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498344658
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Author: Jean-Olivier Hairault
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461561736
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 355
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Book Description
Setting the issue "Most economists consider the marked increase in automatic stabilizers a highly favorable development with respect to maintenance of economic stability". Besides the rare privilege of having being signed by both Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson (Depres,Friedman, Hart, Samuelson, and Wallace [1950]), among others, this sentence expressed as soon as 1950 the consensus view on the stabilizing effect of fiscal rules governing tax revenue and public expendi tures and transfers. This positive ex ante assessment will have been confirmed ex post as part of the explanation for post war stabilization (Burns [1960], de Long and Summers [1986], Moore and Zarnovitz [1986]). However, it becomes disputed in both its positive and normative aspects. Many institutional changes since the eighties point at curbing back the transfer mechanisms underlying automatic stabilizers, and legal restraints on deficits such as the US balanced budget amendment or the European Maastricht criteria would involve serious risks for the future of stabilizers. Under such rules "the government would become, almost inevitally, a destabilizer rather than a stabilizer" said Joseph Stiglitz, quoted by the New York Times (April 1995)). "Built-in stabilizers are automatic fiscal adjustments that reduce the national income multiplier and thus cushion the effects of changes in autonomous spend ing on the level of income" (Pechman [1987]). Early analyses of the automatic fiscal stabilizers include the contributions of A. G. Hart [1945], R. Musgrave and M. Miller (1948) and E. C. Brown (1955).
Author: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691170649
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 482
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Book Description
An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomicsBrings undergraduate and master’s instruction in line with modern economic researchFollows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approachAddresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crisesUses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical modelsFeatures a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of modelsAccompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter
Author: Tobias Adrian
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Guillermo E. Perry
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821370855
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 354
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Book Description
Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.
